NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
I wanted to address the “value” portion of DFS. If you are playing in large field GPP tournaments you need the best bang for your buck. For example, if a player is being touted across the industry he is going to be “highly owned” but I look to see if he has 7x upside. You want 5x as a MIN, 6x is the target and 7x+ is what you really need for a GPP. Taking 10th in a GPP doesn’t pay much but 1st is a massive return and that is what we need to aim for. In my articles I don’t tend to hype up guys that are over $10k (on DK) because 5x is 50 points and that is common and 6x is a pretty solid night but 7x+ is hard for those guys to obtain.
For example, Joel Embiid will be a highly touted stud tonight at 10,800 on DK. So 5x is around 55, 6x around 66 and 7x around 77. In his last 10 games he has a high of 65 DKPs and that is great but won’t win you a GPP unless all your other guys go off. This year he has 1 game where he went nuts for 82.5 DKPs and that is a rare outing so 1 out of 21 games he got to 7x+. I would rather find a guy that is around 8000 and his 7x is only 56 DKPs and then he has more room over the top to climb into 8x, 9x, etc. Just my two cents.
PLAYERS WE LIKE TONIGHT:
TORONTO PLAYERS: I’m going to list a handful of players because running through the NBA cheatsheet and looking at individual teams there are two teams that stand out have usually have 2-3 guys going nuts. Toronto & Detroit.
Chris Boucher – If you have followed some of my screen shots we always try to target someone with a high last 5 game FPPM as they are likely to crush their standard projection. Boucher is the top guy on the list that is playing at +14%. He is a 1.21 on the season and 1.35 FPPM over the last 5 games. He is priced at only 6K and has put up 44, 33.5, 49 and 33 DKPs over his last 4 games taking at least 10 shots, grabbing 9+ boards and 1-2 blocks per game. His 49 DKP game was 8x value, that is the same as Joel Embiid putting up 85 DKPs. Now is it more likely Joel Embiid hits 85 DKPs or Chris Boucher to get to 48 DKPs? Now you get the mindset behind GPP lineup building. I would say Joel Embiid has as 2-3% chance and less likely with Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris on the court while Chris Boucher has a 30-35% chance to get there.
Pascal Siakam – He is down from 8300 to 8000 and he has been on fire! In his last 6 games he has 3 games over 53 DKPs and if you are doing the math that is 6.5x+ and even put up a 65 pointer 4 games ago. Boston ranks strong against the guards but they are week against the forwards and centers (big men) so that is where I’m looking to attack tonight.
Kyle Lowry / Fred VanVleet – We are attacking with the big guys but if you want to pair a guard I don’t mind either of these two. Lowry is only 7300 which feels too cheap with him putting up 40-55 DKPs on a frequent basis. VV is a whopping 8500 so harder to pair with the big guys but has a slightly higher upside hitting 50+ more frequently. VV is not a priority for me but I understand if you are playing him.
Preferred player combos: Lowry + Boucher, Lowry + Pascal Siakam
DETROIT PLAYERS: Same as I stated above with Toronto players they are priced solid enough that 3 guys are usually dropping 6x+ per night. Here are the 3 guys that jump out at me. Note: I also wanted to add that in the last 2 games all 3 of these players were 6x value or HIGHER in the same game. That is rare to have 3 guys all going 6x+ value together. Typically, you get 1-2 players per team for 6x+.
Delon Wright – He is only 6300 and has been working as the primary ball handler putting up 43+ DKPs in his last two.
Jerami Grant – Grant is way too cheap at 7400! He has 47, 53, 28 and 44.5 DKPs in his last 4. I would expect him to be around 8200-8500. His usage is always mid 20’s and up. The one dud game was against a good PHO team that plays really slow and they only scored 92 points in that game. Love Grant tonight on this small slate. You are giving me a guy at 7400 that has 50+ DKP upside? That is 7x with a little room on top for the cherry! Yes please!
Mason Plumlee – He jumps off the page. He is coming off 50 DKPs, prior to that 40 DKPs, a dud game of 22 and then another 41 DKP game. I would guess his price to be around 7K to 7.5K with those performances but he is only 6100. Heck, if you get 30 DKPs he doesn’t kill you and he has 50 DKP upside?
OTHER PLAYERS WE LIKE:
Nikola Vucevic – Yes, Joel Embiid is the cash play at 10,800 because he is about as safe as they come for 5x-6x value but for GPPs I want MORE! I want to climb into that 7x range and leave some money that I can load up other spots. Vucevic is that man! He is 9400 which is a lot but it’s 1400 less than Joel Embiid. He is coming off 62 DKPs last game, 33.5 where he only played 24 minutes in a blowout by Chicago and then 78 DKPs and 51 DKPS. If he is on the floor for 30+ minutes he is a lock for 5x. With Aaron Gordon OFF the court his usage climbs over 30%. Now let’s also consider Orlando may be without Cole Anthony or Evan Fournier and his shots may increase even more.
Jimmy Butler – He is 8400 and he is almost a cash game lock night in and night out. He has no less than 44.5 DKPs and highs constantly over 50 DKPs and even pushes 60 DKPs (over his last 8 games). The closer the game the better he does and tonight it is only a 2 point spread so I’m looking for a solid game from Jimmy Buckets. He is a 1.22 FPPM player and over the last 5 games he is up to 1.41!
John Wall > Victor Oladipo – Wall is my preferred choice as he is 700 cheaper on DK and producing at a higher level. On a short slate I’m sure one of there guards will be used in several lineups. Wall consistently out produces Oladipo when they are on the court together and has a higher usage. Walls usage the last 3 games sits at 36%, 33% and 42% and Oladipo is 28%, 25% and 37%. As the great, Kyle Stevens once said, “Usage is key if the projections are close.”.
Sterling Brown – I’ve been playing this guy like crazy with Wall or Oladipo take a day off. They are likely both playing tonight so his minutes might be scarce but his is over 1.00 FPPM and usually near min price. He plays 20-25 minutes per game (normally) and is putting up 25-30 DKPs. Not a bad dart for a GPP.
Dwight Howard – He is only 3800 and he makes the most of any minutes on the floor. He has only played 13, 13, 10 and 14 over the last 4 games but in two of those he put up 29 and 22 DKPs. If he can squeak out 20 minutes (which is not likely) he can put up 30-35 DKPs.
Frank Mason – Likely the chalk value tonight as he should get the start with Cole Anthony (doubtful). He is only 4000 and has put up 25 and 21 DKPs in the last two and could get 30 minutes of run tonight. Watch the breaking news. It is worth noting that looking into him last season he went for 38.25 and 40 DKPS in back to back games on August 11th and August 13th of 2020 and he only played 22 and 26 minutes in those games. So the upside is there.
CASH GAME BUILDS:
For cash games and some GPPs this is how I’m starting my lineup builds this afternoon.
PG – Delon Wright (6300)
SF – Jimmy Butler (8400)
C – Nikola Vucevic (9400)
UTIL – Chris Boucher (6000)
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Thanks for reading & good luck!