NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
NEWS TO MONITOR – MIGHT OPEN UP VALUE PLAYS:
TERRY ROZIER (Q) – If he is out then look back at LaMelo Ball who hit value last time he got the start even though he got into early foul trouble. Graham also would see more touches as he touched the ball over 100 times last time Rozier was out. Malik Monk would also become a sneaky GPP target playing 40 minutes last game and putting up 48-75 DKPs.
RUSSELL WESTBROOK (Q – B2B) – We typically see Westy sit on the tail end of a B2B and if he does then Bradley Beal becomes a great spend up option. Beal has 70 DKP upside and this team plays at a fast pace with high total games. Ish Smith would also move into the starting lineup with Raul Neto out and give you 5x-6x+.
CLIPPERS – One of them may sit tonight making the other a solid pay up option either Kawhi Leonard or Paul George.
ANDRE DRUMMOND (Q) – If Drummond can’t go then we go right back to Jarrett Allen playing 30+ minutes. Last game with Drummond out we were all over him and he put up 58 DKPs priced at only 5500. Now he is priced up to 6500 but still giving us a ton of value.
PLAYERS WE LIKE TONIGHT:
VICTOR OLADIPO – No John Wall making him the primary ball handler priced under 8K on DK with 50 DKP upside.
IMMANUEL QUICKLEY – Best guard for the Knicks playing more minutes each game with 25, 27 and 30 putting up 34.5-37.25 DKPs in each of the last 3 games and priced at only 5500. Easy play here!
THEO MALEDON – George Hill has been out giving up 28-33 minutes per game and during that span he put up 17, 37 and 24 DKPs and priced at only 4.3k. Now SGA is also out tonight locking him into 30+ minutes against a Houston team that can score a lot of points. Could push 8x value tonight if the shots are falling!
GIANNIS – In the last game MIL ran POR off the court demolishing them 134-106 and Giannis only played 26 minutes. I think IND can keep this game close giving him his 35-40 minutes of run and his ceiling is in the 70 DKP range so hard not to like Giannis if you can afford him.
KAWHI LEONARD – If you don’t want to spend up for Giannis at 11k I completely get it, he is expensive. However, at only 9000 you can get Kawahi who has broke 50 DKP in 4 of his last 6 games. If Paul George is out Kawhi is a lock for me!
DEMAR DEROZAN – I hesitate to put in a Spur because I can never get them right. So here he is GPP only for me but DeRozan has a ton of usage with Aldridge off the course (who has already been ruled out). So, you could expect with the early news DK to price him up, right? DK took is price from 7000 down to 6900. Easy play for me but be careful of his floor. In the last 3 games he has a high of 47.75 DKPs and a low of 8 DKPs and in that 8 DKP game he was on the court for 25 minutes and just didn’t doing anything.
THAD YOUNG – Straight up NBA CheatSheet pick right here! The other night I needed a F and went to the NBA sheet and Thad popped out so I plugged him in and he dropped 40 DKPs and went for 8x. In the last 3 games he has went for 39, 41 and 44 DKPs and priced at 5900. He is playing a ton of minutes and producing at a high level. If he can do it again that is 7x value off a sub 6k player. Yes please!
JOEL EMBIID – In 4 of his last 5 games he has 58+ DKPs hitting a high of 65 and priced right at 10K giving you a 6.5x recent ceiling. Just 7 games ago he smashed for 82.5 DKPs. I don’t think Zeller can defend him so if you have extra money I like some Joel Embiid to push upper 50’s tonight.
MYLES TURNER – His blocks are money in the bank putting up 5, 1, 2, 5, 3 and 6 over recent games. He will get plenty of opportunities tonight for blocks against the Bucks. He is playing around 30 minutes per game and coming off a 51.25 DKP monster priced at only 6700.
CODY ZELLER – How do we not lock this guy in? Over the last 6 games he has been 6x his current salary of the night. Now he is 5800 so took a bit of a price increase but he has put up 44 and 37.75 DKPs in his last two games. In those 6 games if he played 30 minutes he put up 37+ DKPs. I don’t think they will be blowing out the 76’ers so look for 30 minutes and 6x+ value.
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
SPORTS BETTING FIRE - Last NBA sports betting article went 6-1 so check out todays picks!
PRIZE PICKS - I've been playing prize picks and debating adding a possible prize picks cheatsheet in the future!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!