RECAP: Finally have some time to get back into NBA! Last night we has 7 of our 9 top GPP algo plays smash. They were Moe Harkless (6.7x), PatBev (5.6x), Bembry (8.8x), Batum (6.7x), Ingram (7x), Trae (10.7x) & Beal (6.9x). We finally got our NBA Website Optimizer up and running yesterday. We also released our 2019 MLB Draft Guide and for premium members who made a MLB Auction Draft Optimizer! (Video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZ_scSMXs60&t=20s)
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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS!
Tobias Harris - $7,700
He comes in as our morning top GPP algo play. He is sitting on a nice floor of 5.75x value over his last 4 games and 6.5x value over his last two games. He has 50 point upside with no Embiid on the court. They also have a team implied total of 116 points. His last 10 game ceiling is just 6.7x value on his current salary so that is just under the 7.0 total that we are looking for. I will still likely have some GPP shares of him.
Jerami Grant – $5,100
A solid cheap player that is always on the court. He has a 7.5x value last 10 ceiling which is recommended for GPPs. He is averaging right around 30 DK points per contents over his last 6 games which is a solid floor of 6x value. He even stretched up to 35 DK points over his last two games for around 7x value. His consistency puts him as our #2 GPP algo play today. He has 80% of his games over the last 21 days at 5x or higher, 60% at 6x or higher and 40% at 7x or higher. It’s hard for him to get higher than that with Westbrook on his team but he gives you a nice 6x floor on a night to night basis.
JaVale McGee - $3,700
A sneaky GPP play. I was torn to even include him in the article as he has only played 10, 11, 19 and 16 minutes in his last 4 games. He also has only put up 10.5, 15.5, 22,25 and 13.5 DK points. However in GPPs we are looking for low owner guys with a big ceiling. So let’s look at some good shit! He had 43.75 DK points vs. Philly on 2/10 in just 26 minutes. His matchup is a dream vs. PHO who are giving up 64.4 DK points over the last two weeks to the C position. His last 10 game ceiling is 11.8x value his current salary. Worth a dart throw!
QUICK HITTER PLAYS:
Dirk Nowitzki - $3,200
He is coming off 7.5x, 7.6x and 15x games over his last 3. He is also projected for 6.5x value tonight. He is a solid cheap punt and has a good matchup as you can see the stats below.
Bojan Bogdanovic - $5,800
He is coming off 9.8x and then 5 previous games over 5x value. When sorting by “FG attempts” on the Recent Data sheet and then sorting by last 12 days he is up there with a group of $8k and $9k+ guys. He has attempted 22, 18, 16, 15 and 14 FG attempts. Massive upside and solid floor!
Derrick Favors - $4,800
He has exceed 8x value in 3 of his last 4 games and 5.3x in the other game. Projected at 6x value tonight in a good matchup.
Jalen Brunson - $3,800
Projected at 6.2x value tonight and coming off 11.6x, 3.5x, 6.6x and 9.9x value.
STAT MONSTER SECTION:
DVP MATCHUPS: <Using DVP DK points allowed over the last two weeks and players to consider who play the majority of their time at that position.>
CENTERS:
1. LAL facing PHO giving up 64.4 points. <JaVale McGee sneaky>
2. ORL facing IND giving up 61.7 points. <Nikola Vucevic “Diamond matchup”>
3. MEM facing DAL giving up 60.8 points. <Jonas Valanciunas / Joakim Noah>
POINT GUARDS:
1. PHO facing LAL giving up 54.2 points. <Tyler Johnson / Booker>
2. OKC facing SAS giving up 51.6 points. <Westbrook / Schroeder>
3. GSW facing PHI giving up 50.0 points. <Steph Curry>
SHOOTING GUARDS:
1. LAL facing PHO giving up 53.0 points. <Reggie Bullock>
SMALL FORWARDS:
1. DEN facing NOR giving up 51.2 points. <Will Barton>
2. DAL facing MEM giving up 48.3 points. <Tim Hardaway Jr. / Dorian Smith>
POWER FORWARDS:
1. DAL facing MEM giving up 53.7 points. <Nowitzki / Kleber>
2. MEM facing DAL giving up 52.2 points.
3. DEN facing NOR giving up 51.6 points.
4. LAL facing PHO giving up 51.5 points.
VALUE MONSTERS: (Players with a significant fantasy point to salary ratio.)
1. Avery Bradley – 8.5x value over last 12 days.
2. Dirk Nowitzki. – 8.0x value over last 12 days.
3. Paul Millsap – 7.8x value over last 12 days.
4. Joakim Noah – 7.7x value over last 12 days.
5. Elfrid Payton – 7.6x value over last 12 days.
6. Derrick Favors – 7.6x value over last 12 days.
7. Jalen Brunson – 7.2x value over last 12 days.
**NEW** - Highest 7x Consistency Players (Players using their current slate salary that has the highest % of games at 7x over last 21 days. 5 game played minimum.)
1. Derrick Favors – 60% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.
2. Jakob Poeltl – 60% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.
3. Joakim Noah – 58% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.
4. Justise Winslow – 50% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.
5. Dorian Finney – 43% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.
6. Joe Harris – 43% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.
MINUTE MONSTERS: (Players under $7,000 with the highest average minutes per game.)
1. Josh Richardson – 36.6 min/game over last 12 days.
2. Brandon Ingram – 36.3 min/game over last 12 days.
3. Joe Ingles – 36.0 min/game over last 12 days.
4. Klay Thompson – 35.7 min/game over last 12 days.
5. Jerami Grant – 35.0 min/game over last 12 days.
6. Kyle Kuzma – 34.6 min/game over last 12 days.
REBOUND MONSTERS: (Players under $7,000 taking a high number of boards per game.)
1. Paul Millsap – 11.4 boards/game over last 12 days.
2. Derrick Favors – 10.2 boards/game over last 12 days.
3. Hassan Whiteside – 9.8 boards/game over last 12 days.
4. Jakob Poeltl – 8.8 boards/game over last 12 days.
5. Steven Adams – 8.6 boards/game over last 12 days.
SHOT MONSTERS: (Players under $7,000 taking a high number of FG attempts per game.)
1. Klay Thompson – 18.3 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.
2. Brandon Ingram – 16.8 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.
3. Kelly Oubre Jr – 16.8 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.
4. Bojan Bogdanovic – 16.5 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.
5. Kyle Kuzma – 15.8 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.)
INTERESTING STATS:
Players with monster games vs. the same opponent they are facing (if it was significant to their salary ratio):
1. Nikola Jokic – 64.8 points
2. Steph Curry – 59.0 points
3. Hassan Whiteside – 55.8 points
4. Caris LeVert – 52.5 points
5. Ben Simmons – 51.0 points
Players with the highest last 10 game ceiling price under $7,500:
1. Eric Bledsoe – 67.0 points
2. Paul Millsap – 55.5 points
3. Hassan Whiteside – 54.8 points
4. Mike Conley – 54.0 points
5. Kelly Oubre Jr. – 53.5 points
Thank you for reading and good luck!
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Haze