PLAYER PROP breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Player props are extremely fun to mix and match and put together based on game theory and recent performances. Most of our player props are found using our “PROPs” tab on the NBA cheatsheet by comparing the prop line with their daily projection and last 7 and last 15 day performances. The guys that jump out I go and look at their recent game logs. Good Luck and have fun with it!
PROPS THAT WE LIKE:
JOSH HART POINTS -OR- POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS
ANALYSIS: Brandon Ingram is (Q) right now so this might impact some of his stats but I feel like his prop lines are low today. He has 29, 22 and 20 points in his last 3 games and his (PRA) is 43, 32 and 30.
THOUGHTS: His points line is only over 14.5 (-106) for a normal wager and with 29, 22 and 20 over his last 3 that feels like a good number even if Brandon Ingram is back. You can even pump that up to over 19.5 for (+206). His PRA (Points+Rebounds+Assists) number is 26.5 (-118) and with 43, 32 and 30 that number looks pretty solid. I like the PRA number when he is almost getting there with only points being scored. If Ingram is out you could take this up to over 31.5 (+170) or if you want to get crazy over 39.5 (+633)
NIKOLA VUCEVIC REBOUNDS
ANALYSIS: Vucevic is on a tear putting up 20, 17 and 15 boards over the last 3 games. I also like that he is playing 30+ minute in every game so we know he will be on the floor. His rebound number is over 12.5 (-105) and that looks pretty solid given his consistent production in what could be a high scoring game tonight. You can even go up to over 14.5 (+140) and if we are back in the crazy mode for a big payday over 19.5 (+1150).
ZACH LAVINE POINTS
ANALYSIS: LaVine is a scoring machine putting up 25, 30, 32, 33, 23, 32 and 31 points over his last 7 games. His line is over 24.5 (-120) and he has been over that number in 8 of 9 games. I prefer to take a shot in a big parlay at over 29.5 (+146) since 30 is a constant number for him.
KYLE KUZMA POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSIST
ANALYSIS: Kuzma has put up 37, 32, 25 and 30 over the last 4 games. His line tonight is over 27.5 (-115) and Dinwiddie is out so I think he can stay around that 28-30 number.
NIKOLA JOKIC REBOUNDS
ANALYSIS: Another guy who is tearing up the glass is Nikola Jokic and he has put up 18, 22 and 21 boards over the last 3 games. His line is over 14.5 (-115) and that feels pretty safe. If you want to take his 3 game low you can get over 17.5 (+190).
DONOVAN MITCHELL POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSIST -OR- POINTS
ANALYSIS: First we want to look at his points number and he has 33, 28, 21, 32, 27, 27 and 28 over recent games. His line is over 26.5 (-118) which feels like a good spot to slide into the over in a possible high scoring affair vs. the Warriors. His PRA numbers have been 39, 40, 33, 40 and 36 over his last 5 games and his line is over 36.5 (-105). Last game he had 33 points so a PRA number over 36.5 is always fun to lock in!
SOME OF THE CARDS THAT WE ARE ON TONIGHT!
You can mix and match these props how you see fit but here are some of the cards that I have either already locked in or really looking at.
NIKOLA JOKIC + NIKOLA VUCEVIC OVER REBOUNDS:
You can take over 29.5 (-115) and that feels great compared to some of the other odds that I’ve looked at today. Combined over the last 3 games they have 38, 39 and 36 and we are only looking at grabbing 30? Yes please! If Jokic goes off for another 20-22 that means we only need 8-10 from Vucevic. The lowest games in the last 3 for each player combined for 33 and over 32.5 is (+144). If you want to take over 35.5 which is a good middle number it gives you (+223).
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD PARLAY CARD – PAYS +625
JOSH HART OVER 15.5 POINTS
MILWAUKEE TO WIN THE GAME
BRADLEY BEAL OVER 23.5 POINTS
NIKOLA VUCEVIC OVER 12.5 REBOUNDS
ZACH LAVINE OVER 21.5 POINTS
** This gives me some early game action with Josh Hart and a huge MIL favorite. If I can get past that game I can roll into the last 3 legs with some safe numbers.
LONG SHOT CARD – PAYS +1250
JOKIC OVER 19.5 REBOUNDS
VUCEVIC OVER 14.5 REBOUNDS
** Fun having a card that is just rebounds!
SEMI-LONG SHOT CARD – PAYS +625
KEVIN DURANT OVER 29.5 POINTS
ZACH LAVINE OVER 29.5 POINTS
JOKIC + VUCEVIC OVER 26.5 REBOUNDS
** I like to take a couple guys that I think can get 30+ points and slap them together!
EVEN MONEY “BANKROLL BUILDER” – PAYS +102
DONOVAN MITCHELL + BRADLEY BEAL OVER 49.5 POINTS
KEVIN DURANT + JAMES HARDEN OVER 50.5 POINTS
NIKOLA VUCEVIC + NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 23.5 REBOUNDS
** Love this for a straight wager that is even money. I try to do 1-2 of these a night and take the lines down to where there are such heavy favorites that you have to put a few of them together just to get even money. Lower risk but lower payout.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!