PLAYER PROPS from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Player props are extremely fun to mix and match and put together based on game theory and recent performances. Most of our player props are found using our “PROPs” & "Last 7" tab on the NBA cheatsheet by comparing the prop line with their daily projection and last 7 and last 15 day performances. The guys that jump out I go and look at their recent game logs. Good Luck and have fun with it!
PRA PROPS THAT WE LIKE:
JOEL EMBIID (POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS) OVER
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: He jumps out on the NBA sheet as he has averages a PRA number of 59.7 over the last 7 days (3 games) and his line is 46.5 on MyBookie and I have not seen the line on PrizePicks but image it’s in that ballpark.
LUKA DONCIC (POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS) OVER
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: He has been on fire as I stated in my DFS article today. His PRA performance is at 54.3 per game over the last week putting up 37, 28 and 41 actual points and adding in 11, 8 and 14 boards and 9, 8 and 7 assists. He also has 25, 23 and 24 FG attempts giving us a good floor. His line on MyBookie is 43.5 so since his average is more than 10 over the last week that is definitely one we want to take a look at. PRIZE PICK LINE IS ONLY 42.5 – HIT THAT OVER!
D'ANGELO RUSSELL (POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS) OVER
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: He has only 2 games over the last week but his PRA is 38 and his line is OVER 30.5 on Prize Picks & MyBookie. Since his is significantly over that line that is one I want to dig into and see if we like it. First, Vegas opened this game at a whopping 228 spread and our model has it hitting at least 225 so that is great on both fronts. MIN is also #1 in PPG over their last 3 games. MIN has played in games with total outputs of 261, 256, 253, 264 and 240 in 5 of the last 8 so we love that if looking at OVERs!
NIKOLA JOKIC (POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS) OVER
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: Looking at the “Last 7” tab on our NBA cheatsheet we dug into all the 10+ PRA guys and now Nikola Jokic falls at 9.3 so he is next on our list. MyBookie has over 45.5 (-125) so eating a ton of juice but PrizePicks there is no juice and we get the same 45.5 line. Jokic has played 3 games in the last week and averaged 57.6 PRA and his raw projection (which is where the PRA line is usually at on your local sportsbook) is 48.3 but we are getting a lower 45.5 so that is one there is value in attacking.
IVICA ZUBAC (POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS) OVER
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: Tons of value here on PrizePicks! MyBookie has this at over 19.5 (-205) but you can go to PrizePicks and get over 19.5 as a normal pick with no juice! He has put up 31, 23, 45 and 19 over the last 3 games so taking a shot at a low number on a player that is red hot right now. In those last two games of 31 and 23 he only played 29 and 24 minutes so if he got 30 minute of run he crushes this number.
TERRY ROZIER (POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS) OVER
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: His line is 28.5 and that’s a number that I can get behind. Last game out he only had 19 so he got crushed but he was 2 of 14 from the floor and 0 for 6 beyond the arc and I don’t think we will see that poor of shooting performance again. He has 3, 6, 4 and 4 3P shots alone in the prior 4 games. In the prior games he has put up a PRA of 38, 42, 35 and 33 easily going over this number.
OTHER PROPS TO WATCH FOR:
TYRESE HALIBURTON ASSISTS OVER
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: Prize Picks doesn’t have a line up for him yet and neither does my local book but keep an eye out. He is back on his AST game with 12, 12 and 10 over the last 3 games. If Fox is ruled out then HAMMER THE HALIBURTON PRA OVER LINE! With Fox ruled out last game he played 38 minutes and put up 24 points, 12 assists and 6 boards for a PRA of 42!
PLUS MONEY PROPS TO TAKE SHOTS ON:
REGGIE JACKSON POINTS PROP
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: He has been a consistent staple for this LAC team. Things that jump out at me is his points prop where it’s OVER 17.5 (-110) but he has put up 26, 19, 28 and 26 over the last 4 games so why not take a shot at plus money here? OVER 19.5 (+130), OVER 21.5 (+202), OVER 23.5 (+3.07) and OVER 25.5 (+450). He has hit 26 points in 3 of his last 4 games and I can get it again for +450? Wow!
REGGIE JACKSON ASSISTS PROP
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: He has 5, 9 and 12 over the last 3 games and OVER 4.5 (+110) and that is great to put in a parlay if you want it to pay out big money. OVER 7.5 (+312) is a great number to target.
JAYSON TATUM 3 POINT SHOTS MADE PROP
ANALYSIS/THOUGHTS: He is playing in a game against SAC that features a total of 220 by Vegas and 227 by our NBA model. SAC has allowed 133, 133, 118, 114 and 116 points over their last 5 games. Last game Jayson Tatum was on fire hitting 9 of 14 3 point shots and over 7.5 would of paid (+3200). Now prior to that game he was 0/6, 0/7, 0/4 and 1/5. Numerous times this year he has hit 4 and 5 3’s so that is what I’m looking at. OVER 3.5 (+185) and OVER 4.5 (+360). We only need to win this a small percentage of the time to be profitable so take it as a long shot plus money pick!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!