PLAYER PROP breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
YouTube Video: https://youtu.be/5bgX7lYhWsE
YouTube Video - Will have greater detail and more explaination on the player props and plays. I also include some bonus plays that I like on the video!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Player props are extremely fun to mix and match and put together based on game theory and recent performances. Most of our player props are found using our “PROPs” & "Last 7" tab on the NBA cheatsheet by comparing the prop line with their daily projection and last 7 and last 15 day performances. The guys that jump out I go and look at their recent game logs. Good Luck and have fun with it!
WHERE TO START? First I like to use the NBA CheatSheet and the Last 7 tab and sort by PRA from high to low (as I do in the video) and indentify players that are HOT or COLD over the last week compared to their projection and then dig into their game logs. Here are some players that I will look at today:
BREAKDOWN: Kuzma has been on fire and his 44.5 PRA vs. projection 28.9 gives me one that is on the top of my list to look at. I've hit his PRA OVER each of the last 3 games with ease for a simple straight wager. Furkan Kokmaz we will discuss but he pops out with 22 PPG and projected at 12.8 but he is also projected at 6 more minutes that he has been playing and scoring 22? Darius Garland only had the one game back but 27 PPG in that game vs. projected 19.8 is one that I want to look at his game logs and see how he did before his absence. HINT: He freaking crushed it! Dejounte Murray assist at 12 vs. projected 8.2 makes me curious on the line. It's only 1 game but that promps me to dig into his game logs.
PROPS THAT WE LIKE:
DARIUS GARLAND POINTS OVER
27 points in his first game back was amazing! Prior to his 4 games out he had 22, 28, 22 and 21. Right now I can get over 20.5 points for only (-108)!
KYLE KUZMA POINTS OVER
He has 24, 36, 29, 25 and 22 over his last 5 game hot streak. You can get over 17.5 (-123) or take that up to over 21.5 (+146). He is the #2 scorer on the team and also like his PRA over also!
ZACH LAVINE POINTS OVER & ZACH LAVINE 3PM SHOTS OVER
27, 35, 17, 25, 30 and 32 points over his last 5 games. He is a 3P machine and IND is one of the best at defending the perimiter so not surprising he had a low outgame game there. He also has 4, 7, 0, 5, 5, 5 and 7 3PM over recent games. You can get points over 24.5 (-119) which isn't a bad straight wager OR you can get pump it up. What was really surprising in my morning research was his 3PM shots and you can get over 4.5 which he has done in 5 of his last 7 games at +179! If you want to be safe you can get over 2.5 3PM shots at (-135). So you can play it safe or go for the moon!
DEJOUNTE MURRAY ASSISTS OVER
Coming off a game with 12 assists I was curious to what he was doing prior to his 5 games out. He was crushing it with 13, 13, 9, 11, 9 and 10 assists! I was shocked to see the over 8.5 line at +106 this morning. Since I made the YouTube video that has moved from +106 to -105 so money is coming in on his over!
FURKAN KORKMAZ POINTS OVER
When Furkan popped on the sheet this morning I was looking through his game logs and saw 20 points in 40 minutes (last game) and 24 points in 36 minutes the game prior. Tonight he is projected for another 30+ minutes so I was curious on his point total. You can get over 14.5 (-123) which looks good or one of my favorites taking over 19.5 (+192) as I just can't pass up on those odds.
SAFE LEG PARLAY THAT WE LIKE:
You can even add in Dejounte Assists over 8.5 and take it up to +300.
LONG SHOT DART PARLAY THAT WE LIKE:
We discussed several different options you can add into this long shot parlay. Furkan to get over 19.5 points is reasonable. LaVine has been over this number in 5 of 7 games and you are getting huge +171 odds! Garland and Kuzma feel like safe shots for them to hit their projection.
Parlay as it shows is +1700!
Jokic Rebounds Over
LaVine Points over 30 +130
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Thanks for reading & good luck!