NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
PLAYERS WE LIKE TONIGHT:
LOU WILLIAMS – If Kawhi Leonard can’t go then Lou Will is a lock button play for me. In the last game where both Paul George and Kawhi were out he played 32 minutes and put up 30 points with 10 assists and 2 boards for 49 DKPs. That game he was priced at only 6,300 and tonight is only 6,400. Even with Kawhi playing he should be a good value but without he is a lock for me in cash or gpp.
NERLENS NOEL – Easy value play tonight at 4400 on DK. He should get another 30ish minutes and coming off a 23 DKP game where he had 10 points, 2 blocks, a steal and 6 boards. Great cash game play with a solid floor.
DEANDRE JORDAN – I never played this guy when he was in the 5k-5500 range because he was just a boring 5x player with no ceiling and stable floor. Now his price has come down to only 4500 and he is coming off a 36.75 DKP game where he played a solid 37 minutes. In prior games he only ran 20-25ish minutes but if he can get another 30+ he could get you a solid 7x return. Cash or GPP play.
KYRIE IRVING – With Kevin Durant ruled out and a Vegas total of over 240 points exposure to this game is almost a must. James Harden is 1700 more but has a higher ceiling but you can’t go wrong with Kyrie at only 9K. On 2/10 he put up 58 DKPs shooting 8 for 17, with 4 boards, 8 assists and 35 actual points. 5x is 45 DKPs and that is a floor tonight with 54 DKPs giving you a 6x return. Solid cash game play and don’t mind for GPP but 7x is almost unreachable for Kyrie.
BRUCE BROWN – Should be locked into another 25 minutes tonight with no KD. He is only 4100 and a great value piece of this BKN game. In 3 of the last 5 games he has been over 25 DKPs and that doesn’t sound like much but that is over 6x value on his small 4100 salary. My favorite part is that he is SG/SF eligible so I can fit him into multiple spots on DK.
BRADLEY BEAL – Will Westbrook rest tonight? That is the question! If he does then Beal becomes a rock solid target. In the last 4 games he has taken 18-24 FG attempts and put up more than 31 actual points in 3 of 4. His usage rate is already in the mid 30’s and he is priced UNDER 9K on DK tonight. Bradley Beal + Lou Williams would be a great way to start a build.
JIMMY BUTLER – DK refuses to price this guy up and I don’t mind it. I hate looking for a SF spot so he is an easy start for me in most lineup builds. In his last 3 games he has 37.5 DK points but they were playing Utah and got thumped by almost 20 points and then the prior 2 games he put up 58 and 56 DKPs scoring 26 and 27 actual points with 10 assists in each game and then 8 and 10 boards. He contributes to every category so he has a very high floor. Price is only 8200 on DK and with 60 DKP upside he can give you Kyrie Irving returns at 800 less with a higher ceiling.
DWIGHT HOWARD – Joel Embiid is (Q) to play tonight. Anytime this pops up I start building Dwight Howard lineups early in the day so it’s an easy swap when they finally rule him out 15 minutes before lock. Howard is only 3600 and would be the chalk lock button if Joel Embiid is out so just prepare yourself. The last time Howard played 25 minutes he put up 34.25 DKPs so he can push 10x his salary. He just normally plays 10-13 minutes per game.
Our prize pick custom projections have been on FIRE! Make sure to check them out on the NBA CheatSheet. We also bring in the season average vs. last 15 game averages and break it down into a custom "Prize Point Per Min" factor for each play and compare it with his projected minutes. Take a look at what the sheet looks like:
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