NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I’m still on PTO today (Monday) but tomorrow will be back to work after taking Spring Break off work. So I wanted to focus on some NBA stats and plays for today to go along with my NCAA bets I posted in the chat this am!
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
PLAYERS WE LIKE TONIGHT:
His last 4 games have been 50.5, 45.8, 47.8 and 50.3 DKPs and his price tag is just shy of 8K on both sites. He is playing at an 8% higher clip of 1.26 FPPM and playing an average of 36 minutes per game. No Kemba Walker so he should continue his torrid run along side Jayson Tatum.
JOHN COLLINS He is playing at a low 1.08 FPPM on the season but over the last 5 games he has shot up to 1.36 which is a 28% jump. He is coming off a 60.5 DKP game and priced at only 7400 on DK. Fanduel he is a little pricier at 8200.
Towns and Edwards are running the show for MIN right now. Game has a tight spread of -3.5 with a game total of 226.5. Edwards sits at only (7200 DK / 7700 FD) and playing at a 1.15 FPPM level which is a 15% bump from his season average. His minutes are locked in playing 36, 38, 38 and 37 over the last 4 games AND I those game he has hit a high of 60.3 DK points and his low is just over 5x value. The games Edwards is under 6x value it’s notable that Ricky Rubio is hitting that 6x mark at a high rate. So if you think Edwards is heavy chalk then pivot over to Rubio for GPPs.
He is only playing an average of 19 minutes per game but with LaMelo out for the rest of the season his minutes should jump into the low 30’s. He is averaging around 1.00 FPPM so that is an average of around 30 DKP and at his 4800 price tag that is 6x value.
Sexy time tonight with Sexton facing a horrible SAC team. He has 49.8 and 45.8 in 2 of his last 3 games and barely priced over 7k on both DK and FD. His minutes are locked in and he is on fire right now.
Everyone is talking up Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday with Giannis doubtful so I expect them to be chalky and honestly they have not been playing very well. Holiday is down from 1.15 FPPM to 0.98 over the L5 games and Middleton is down from 1.26 down to 0.90 for a -36% drop. Now DiVincenzo is 6100 on DK and even cheaper on FD at 5700 and coming off 40.3 and 45 DKP games. He is up from 1.00 FPPM to 1.14 over the L5 games. If you want to pivot off the chalk of Middleton and Holiday get some Donte in your lineups!
Scolling through my NBA cheatsheet Moses Brown came up with an 84% BOOM number and my first thought was, “Who is Moses Brown?”. He is a C for OKC and playing around 20-25 minutes per game. He is 5100 on DK and only 4300 on FD and in his last 3 games he has 33, 14 and 51 DKPs. Boom or Bust GPP dart to consider.
TOR is finally back to a healthy squad. Anunoby is someone that jumps out at me as he is only 5600 on DK and 5200 on FD. Yes you are fine with Lowry (8100), VanVleet (7600) but I like Anunoby on the cheap. He is coming off back-to-back games of over 34 DKPs and that is around 6.5x value his salary.
He is someone that jumped out when I was going through the NBA cheatsheet team by team. He is only 4100 on DK and 4000 on FD and he will give you 20-27 DKPs and playing a stead 25 average minutes per game. He is a cheap pivot that you can fill in your lines that won’t break you and might get you a solid 5x-6x value. He has 27, 24, 18 and 27.5 over his last 4 games so basically two games of 6x+ and a game of 5x+ and one dud game.
Free Group Link: www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/
Premium Group Access: www.CheatSheetPros.com
Twitter Follow for DFS plays & Sports Bets: https://twitter.com/CheatSheetPros
Thanks for reading & good luck!