NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros.com!
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Players to consider for your lineups:
DeAndre Jordan ($6,900) - DJ has a monster matchup tonight vs. PHO. PHO has given up 71.2 points to the C over the last week and 63.2 points to the C over the last two weeks. You want to go further? 61.3 over the last month. DJ has been up and down recently going 7x, 4x, 6.4x, 4.3x, 2x and 6.8x. He has played 30+ minutes in each of his last 3 games. The Vegas total sits at 219.5 so if PHO can keep this game close he could have a monster game ahead of him.
Andre Drummond ($8,600) - AD also has a solid matchup tonight vs. the LAL. LAL have given up 67.3 points over the last week and 64 points over the two weeks to the C position. This should be a close game with a tight spread of 1.5 points and a decent Vegas total of 217. Drummond has also played 37, 37.5 and 38.4 minutes in the last 3 games. He has put up 5.7x in each of his last two games. Solid floor who is great for cash games and has a decent ceiling.
Ben Simmons ($9,100) & Joel Embiid ($10,800) - I’m putting these two together as solid plays as the best way to attach WAS is from the PG spot and C position. WAS is giving up 229.8 fantasy points per game over the last two weeks and this is the #5 highest team total on the slate. They are giving up 55.1 to the PG, 57.5 to the C, 48.8 to the PF spot and then 33.8/36.6 to the SG and SF position. (Note: I don’t mind putting them together but in the last 7 games only one time has both players went over 5x value in the same game. One player is typically just under 5x in the 4.6-4.8 range and the other play is in the 6x-7x range. I would mix and match for GPPs.)
Brooklyn Guards - ATL is giving up the most fantasy points of any team on the slate over the last two weeks at 243.8. The highest position allowed is to the PG position at 51.6 points and then 49.1 points to the SG. If Shabazz Napier ($4,000) is playing heavy minutes he could be the chalk play of the night. He has put up 8.7x, 8.3x, 4.7x and 5.9x over his last 4 games.
These are players that have been crushing value over the last 3-5 games. We are not saying they are great plays as some could of been playing more due to injuries, blowouts, etc but we want to put them out there for you.
Ian Mahinmi - $3,500 - 8.7x, 9.5x and 5.2x over his last 3 games.
Richaun Holmes - $3,400 - 8.6x, 3.8x, 10x, 7x over his last 4 games.
Clint Capela - $7,800 - 6.6x, 6x, 9.2x and 5.2x over his last 4 games.
Daniel Theis - $4,000 - 6.2x, 9.8x, 5.7x over his last 3 games.
Gordon Hayward - $5,700 - 3.9x, 8.4x, 9.3x over his last 3 games.
Josh Jackson - $5,200 - 6.1x, 8.7x, 4.7x, 8.3x over his last 4 games.
DeMarre Carroll - $5,500 - 6.2x, 6.4x, 8.1x, 5.6x, 8.4x, 5.4x over his last 6.
Jeremy Lin - $4,200 - 8.9x, 6.6x, 5.3x, 6x over his last 4.
These are players that are averaging the most minutes per game at a price point of $7,000 or less:
Austin Rivers ($4,500):
He is averaging 41.8 minutes over his games in the last 10 days.
Kevin Huerter ($4,700):
He is averaging 38.5 minutes over his games in the last 10 days.
Thad Young ($5,700):
He is averaging 36.52 minutes over his games in the last 10 days.
P.J. Tucker ($3,800):
He is averaging 36.27 minutes over his games in the last 10 days.
Josh Hart ($6,100):
He is averaging 36.01 minutes over his games in the last 10 days.
Top DVP Spots + some players who fit! (Using last 2 weeks scoring data)
LAL and PHO are giving up 64 and 62.2 points to the C position.
Worst Spot: MEM is only allowing 47.3 points to the C position.
1. DeAndre Jordan (wrote about above)
2. Andre Drummond (wrote about above)
WAS is giving up 55.1 points to the PG position.
Worst Spot: UTA is only allowing 38.2 points to the PG position.
1. Ben Simmons (wrote about above)
ATL is giving up 49.1 points to the SG position over the last two weeks.
Worst Spot: MIL is only giving up 32.8 points to the SG position.
DAL is giving up 57.9 points, IND giving up 54.3, PHI giving up 53.9 and CLE giving up 53.0 points to the PF position.
Worst Spot: OKC only allowing 41.1 points to the PF position.
1. Gordon Hayward $5,700 has crushed value in 4 of last 6 games.
2. Jeff Green - 4 of last 6 games 5.9x or more.
3. Julius Randle - Monster prior game vs. CLE.
4. T.J. Warren - Solid floor for cash games and 8x upside ceiling.
5. P.J. Tucker - Cheap punt playing a ton of minutes coming off a 9.8x game after 3 sub 4x games.
CLE is giving up 47.5 points to the SF position.
Worst Spot: IND only allowing 33.2 points to the SF position.
Interesting Stats for tonight:
Highest fantasy points vs. the team they are currently facing: (if it was a significant value compared to their current salary)
C.J. McCollum - 62.8 points
D’Angelo Russell - 56.5 points
Julius Randle - 52.0 points
Devin Booker - 52.0 points
DeWayne Dedmon - 51.5 points
Players under $8,000 on DK with the highest last 10 game ceiling: (Note: For ceiling we look at the last 10 games as if you look at the season it could of been a week 1 game where they had something crazy happen and that will show for the entire season, the last 10 games is a rolling high and will stay current.)
Clint Capela - 63.8 points
DeMar DeRozan - 62 points
DeAndre Ayton - 61.5 points
Spencer Dinwiddie - 60.5 points
Jrue Holiday - 59.8 points
Thank you for reading and good luck!