NBA DFS Picks (December 5th, 2019) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last night our GPP Algo plays absolutely destroyed with Jonas Val – 7.3x value, Jarrett Allen – 8.4x value, Jimmy Butler – 7.6x value, DJ Augustin – 6.4x value and Tomas S. – 7.2x value!
NBA DFS Plays to consider:
JAMES HARDEN (12000) – This isn’t anything new. If you can afford him then he is a fine play. At his massive price tag of 12,000 you need 60 points for 5x and 72 points for 6x value. His last 5 games he has put up 78, 85, 55, 61 and 71 DKP. 5x seems to be a common floor with some upside. A lock for cash games but I’m find fading for GPPs.
JOEL EMBIID (9700) – He is in a smash spot tonight facing a team that is giving up 55 DKP to the C position, game total of a whopping 235.5 and spread of -7.5. If this game does not blow out Embiid has 6x upside. Embiid has 57+ DKP in 3 of his last 4 games. Solid for cash games, around 6x upside for GPP which is fine on a 4 game slate but wouldn’t lock in on him if it was a larger slate.
BEN SIMMONS (8000) – Love this price point of the players around 8k that have 50 point upside. 3 of his last 8 games he broke the 50 point mark which is pushing that 6.5x-7x mark. He strives in the fast paced game and that is what Vegas is projecting with a 235.5 game total. Smash spot with team total of 122 points and facing a team that is also giving up over 50 DKP to his position.
CLINT CAPELA (7900) – Capela has been a rebounding monster this year! He is coming off 58, 58, 45, 40 and 58 DKP. So we need just shy of 40 for 5x and he is hitting that easily plus hitting some 7x games. Team implied total of 114 is solid but the DVP is a little tougher as they are only allowing 42 DKP to the C position. He is a good GPP pivot off Joel Embiid if you need to save almost $2k.
KYLE LOWRY (7000) – Lowry is projected at 5.2x value tonight and our algo has him pushing 5.8x with some room for upside. Game total of a nice 230 points with a small -1.5 spread meaning it should be a close game and we are hoping for a shootout. DVP is a little rough as they are only allowing 42 DKP to his position. He came back and played 41 minutes and even though he put up a solid 41 DKPs he was 2 for 18 from the field and 0 for 11 from 3 point land. If some shots start to fall he could explode. I don’t mind VanVleet at only 6.6k as he put up 36.25 last game playing along side Lowry. VV was 5 for 16 and 3 for 9 from 3 point land so he could of also done better.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER BASED ON INJURIES:
JAXON HAYES (3800) – Derrick Favors is in an absolute SMASH spot if he is back. Game total of 235 points, small spread of -3.5, DVP allowance of 55 points to his position and team implied total of 119. However, he is Q and if he does not play then we can look at Hayes as a punt that should pick up extra minutes. Playing 26, 26 and 21 minutes in his last 3 games he has put up 18.5, 25 and 23 DKP. Solid punt option.
FRANK KAMINSKY (5300) – Aron Baynes is doubtful tonight and Kaminsky should draw the start. Points allowed to the C position by the opposing team over the last two weeks is 57 DKP/game and that is the highest on the slate. Team implied total of 116. In the last two games he has play 26 and 33 minutes and put up 37 and 29 DK points.
MORITZ WAGNER (5500) – Thomas Bryant is out and Wagner is Q. If he plays he is a solid GPP option in a strong spot. He is only averaging 22 minutes per game over the last 4 and 3 of the 4 only scoring around 22-23 DKP so this is why we are only using him in GPP. He has flashed upside and had a 58 DKP game on 11-15 where he put that up in only 25 minutes. If he is out then look at Rui and Bertans getting some extra run.
GPP PUNT PLAYS:
Cameron Johnson, Thybulle & James Ennis.
FREE PREMIUM SHEET THURSDAYS! (Free group here and you get some premium member benefits just by being in the group!) {Remember we post our Premium Cheatsheets for FREE on Thursdays in our Facebook group: http://www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/}
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze