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NBA Sports Betting Locks for Saturday!


NBA Sports Betting Report from CheatSheetPros!

QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Our NBA betting tab last night had Utah favored by 22 points over Dallas with a small spread and they easily covered and won by 19! That was our highest disparity game on the board. Let’s look at two plays we have for tonight! Our NBA CheatSheets are FREE on Thursdays in the Facebook group link below if you want to try them out!


HOUSTON/NEW ORLEANS OVER 223

Our range of outcomes in our NBA model is 225-230 points and since both of these are clearly over the total that is a game we want to target. Pelicans are 6th in eFG% over the last 3 games while putting up 121.7 PPG during that same span. What I like about this game is that the efficiency numbers are tight meaning there is not a wide disparity and this game should play around a 2.17 meaning 217 points per 100 possessions for the teams combined. But John the total is 223 and you just said 217? Now we need to dig into the possessions. Pelicans are at the 21st pace on the season but playing much faster over the last 3 games and rank 2nd in pace at 106.2 possessions per game. On the season at home they are playing at a 104.4 vs. only 101.5 on the road. Rockets are 7th on the season but with the trades and injuries over the last 3 games they are at 13th so they are a bit of a wild card in this spot. Rockets on the road have been playing at a faster pace putting up a 106.4 vs. only 104.3 at home. Our model projects this game around 104.6 possessions. So if you take the 104.6 x 2.17 = 227 points clearing the total. I think the game will play a tad big higher in my opinion but Vegas set this total slightly low.


SACRAMENTO KINGS +6 OVER MIAMI HEAT

Yes, the Heat have tons of (Q) players and they are trying to get back to full health while the Kings play hardly any defense so I understand the hesitation but hear me out. Miami has been awful losing 5 straight games! They lost to a depleted Clipper squad 109-105 as a 2 point fav, they got killed by Denver 109-82 and beat by BKN twice and then trashed by Toronto 101-81. SAC has won 3 straight games beating TOR 126-124, ORL 121-107 and NYK 103-94. SAC is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. Miami. Our model has them easily winning the game outright so grab the points. Miami sits at 35% against the spread on the year.


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Thanks for reading & good luck!

Haze