NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Still in Gulf Shores for Spring Break with the family but ready to crank out some more picks! Last night I covered with CHA -3.5 in a tight game and my Harden over 8.5 REB gave me a 2-0 night. I also did a CHA / LAC / BKN over parlay for a couple units that hit.
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
BOSTON +4 – I hate to go against Utah but they are 1-5 ATS L6 games and BOS is 5-1 SU in their L6 games. What jumped out at me is that BOS is only 7-14 ATS on the road but at home where they are playing tonight they are a much better 11-6 ATS. Why not we have seen crazier things happen, take the points!
BOSTON OVER 229.5 – Model is spitting out greater than a 90% change at this going over and the total is on the lowest end of the “range of outcomes”. 88% of the bets are also on the OVER.
OKC +6.5 – White CHI sits at a nice 12-4 ATS on the road they are only 9-12 ATS at home and 5-5 in their L10 games. Neither team blows my stocks off but cheatsheet model has this as a tighter game that what the spread indicates. I might just hit OKC ML with a go big or go home and not worry about the straight bet on +6.5. Model says take the points!
PHILLY -7 – PHI is 14-6 ATS when playing at home this year. NYK are having a great year but model has Philly rolling in this game 122-107 so I’m laying the 7 and backing the home team.
PHILLY OVER 218 – Love it when an “OVER” play comes out. NYK are 5-0 “over” in their L5 games and PHI is 5-1 “over” in their L6. If Philly can get the tempo slightly up to 100 possessions (which is really low) this game will slide over the low total. Model has it mid-upper 220’s.
POR/NOP OVER 238.5 – Model does not like the over but I DO! This is all me! Games with tight spreads that play at a projected combined efficiency of 2.27 and higher I LOVE! This one projections between 2.27 and 2.28 so for 100 possessions that is 227-228 points. We project this game between 101.5 and 105 possessions. Last matchup they put up a combined 250 total points. Pelicans are 14-3 “over” over the last 17 games. The last 3 matchups between these two all went over and the last 10 games the over is 7-3. 97% of the bets are also on the OVER!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze