NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
NEWS TO MONITOR – MIGHT OPEN UP VALUE PLAYS:
BEN SIMMONS (Q) – If he is out then Tobias Harris becomes a solid play and Shake Milton becomes a viable cheap value play.
ELFRID PAYTON (Q) & IMMANUEL QUICKLEY (Q) – If either one of them is out and the other is in they become a solid value pick. If they both are out then Julius Randle and Alec Burks move up the charts.
PLAYERS WE LIKE TONIGHT:
Sitting at only 4200 on DK we only need 21 points for 5x value and 25 points for 6x value. With no LeBron tonight his minutes should be locked in and he has a massive usage bump with LeBron off the court. He has 30.8 and 40.5 DKPs in 2 of his last 4 games giving us a big ceiling at a low price point. He is a safe 1.00 FPPM player so even 25 minutes is 6x value but he should get closer to 28 tonight.
This is the stud to “pay up for” in my opinion. He is pricey at 10,700 on DK and 11,100 on FD but he has been going nuts. Tonight they get BKN who they have already beat twice this year and the game has a massive 248 point total. He is coming off 82.3 DK points and prior to that he put up 62.5, 59.2 and 80.5. Hitting 80+ DKPs in 2 of his last 4 is nuts! We always look at FPPM (Fantasy Points Per Min) and he is at a solid 1.45 on the season and an even high 1.61 over the last 5 games which is the highest of any player on the slate.
If you fade “Westbrook” then the beneficiary of his average game is likely going to be Beal and Rui Hachimura. Hach is 5800 on DK and 4900 on FD and is a great GPP target in this massive total game. He has a high of 52.3 DK points and a low of 19.3 over his last 4 games so he is up and down. In the game he only had 19.3 Westbrook went for over 80, went Westbrook had an average 59.3 game he Hachimura at 41.3. His minutes appear to be solidified as he has played 39, 38, 37 and 38 over the last 4 games.
He is another stud I’m interested in as I think this POR game could get a sneaky high total if it’s anything like their last matchup. Luka is 11,000 on DK and 10,800 on FD but he has put up 64.8, 74 and 68.5 DKPs over his last 3 games and is playing at a nice 1.50 FPPM. Game also has a tight -2 spread which is nice for upside as there is little blowout concern here.
He is set to make his debut for the Nets tonight, don’t know how many minutes he will get but he is worth a GPP flier in this game.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!