NCAA “Sweet 16” Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Sweet 16 is finally here and we are going to take a quick look at every game through our NCAA Sports Betting Cheatsheet and let you know if we LIKE IT or don’t like it! I’ll also share my favorite early parlay with everyone.
OREGON ST (+7) vs. LOYOLA-CHICAGO
Custom NCAA model has this game with Loyola winning by 4-5 points so naturally we need to lean on grabbing the +7. We do have a range of 128-140 total points so leaning over the 125.5.
BAYLOR (-6.5) vs. VILLANOVA
Custom NCAA model has this game with Villanova winning by 1-2 points. Personally, I like Baylor here as they looked dominant in their last game. Both teams had a solid SOS this year with ‘Nova ranking as the 8th hardest and Baylor as the 2nd. How did they get here? Villanova beat Winthrop (power ranking 94th) 84-61 and they beat North Texas (power ranking 76th) 73-63. Baylor beat a nobody in R1 by 24 points and then in round 2 beat Wisconsin (power ranking 16th) 76-63. I’m giving the edge to Baylor here.
ORAL ROBERTS (+11) vs. ARKANSAS
Custom NCAA model has this game with Arkansas coming away with the win but definitely by less than 11 points. We have this game with Arkansas winning by 3-5 points. Can Oral Roberts continue their hot streak vs. this Arkansas team? Oral Roberts beat #2 see Ohio State 75-72 in OT and Ohio State and Arkansas hold around the same power ranking (12th vs. 14th). Then Oral Roberts goes on to beat 7th seed Florida 81-78 (power ranking 37th). I don’t think they can win the game but getting double digits points in the Sweet 16 is a solid bet to back. Arkansas beat a solid Texas Tech team (11th) 68-66 last round. Take the points!
SYRACUSE (+6.5) vs. HOUSTON
Custom NCAA model has this game with Houston winning by 5-6 points which was shocking to me. I personally hit Syracuse +6.5 as soon as it opened. Syracuse looked really good last game knocking out the 3 seed West VA 75-72 who holds a 19th best power ranking. Houston barely squeaked by the 10 seed Rutgers 63-60 and was even losing that game at the half. Houston is slightly inflated in our model from beating up on low power ranked teams. Grab the points!
GONZAGA (-13.5) vs. CREIGHTON
Custom NCAA model has this game with the Zags rolling 84-67. I don’t think Creighton can score enough points to stay in this one. Zaga is putting up 92.3 PPG and Creighton only 76.5. Looking at efficiency stats which are great for NBA games and totals you have the Zags who sit at 1.20 meaning they are scoring 120 points for every 100 possessions. Creighton is at 10.6 on the season and only 0.86 over the last 3 games so you can clearly see there is a huge efficiency gap between these two teams.
MICHIGAN (-3) vs. FLORIDA STATE
Custom NCAA model has this game Michigan on top 76-72 so pretty close to the Vegas line. Both teams come in off big wins as Michigan beat LSU 86-78 in a game several people expected them to lose and FSU comes in after thrashing CU 71-53 as only a -1.5 favorite. I lean Michigan but will definitely research this game more as the week goes on.
UCLA (+6) vs. ALABAMA
Custom NCAA model has this game with UCLA winning 77-74 so obviously leaning on taking the points here. UCLA comes out and knocks off the 6th see BYU 73-62 and then follows that performance up beating Abilene Christian 67-47. Alabama is coming off a win vs. Maryland where they rolled up 96 points and won 96-77. I’m looking at the total of 145.5 and thinking this might be a good over.
OREGON vs. USC OVER 139
Custom NCAA model has this game with Oregon winning 76-74 and since the Vegas spread is 2 I don’t think there is an edge on either side of this game. However, I LOVE the total here to go over! Oregon is coming off a game where they put up 95 points vs. IOWA and they have been over 80 points in 4 of the last 5 games. USC is coming off a game where they put up 85 points and they have 4 straight games over 70 points including that 85 points last weekend and even a 91 pointer against Utah.
FAVORITE “SAFE” PARLAY FOR THE SWEET 16:
BAYLOR -270 (Money line)
GONZAGA -1100 (Money line)
OREGON/USE OVER 139
PARLAY PAYS +170
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze