NFL "Prize Picks" and "Same Game Parlays" for Sunday!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
NFL Week 1 was a blast having my first run of "Same Game Parlays"! I ran a 16 leg card and hit 15 of them only losing the Fournette over 14.5 receiving yards at the end of the card. Luckily, I was able to get Fournette under 2.5 catches +185 "live" when he had 2 catches for 10 yards knowing if he caught another ball my monster SGP was going to hit. We missed the 3 leg Prize Pick card last night but that was fine we only went half unit on it and didn't love it but just wanted some action. I have a few good college ones in the works today but wanted to get my NFL lines posted.
Russell Wilson OVER 240.5 Passing Yards:
Wilson put up 340 passing yards in Week 1 although they were down almost the entire game and fighting to get back in it. Houston gave up over 500 yards of offense last week and 340 passing yards to Indy. His raw projection is 286 passing yards. Denver will decide if they run all over Houston or let Russell Wilson throw. Either way 240.5 feels like a small number.
Carson Wentz OVER 239.5 Passing Yards:
Week 1 he had 41 passing attempts tossing for 313 yards and 4 touchdowns! His raw projection is just shy of 270 passing yards. DET gave up 455 yards last week split almost evenly between rushing and passing. DET has the 27th rated DVOA pass defense and Washington can't run! Washington averaged only 3.4 yards per carry and put up 85 total rushing yards. Antonio Gibson was having a horrible camp and when it looked like Brian Robinson was going to take the job he was shot in an attempted car jacking. WAS gave up 6.8 yards per carry so expect them to be playing catch up!
Saquon OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards:
Is Saquon finally healthy? He looked good last week where he rushed for 164 yards and a touchdown! I love VOLUME and he had 18 attempts and even 7 targets and there is no one behind him that is going to steal carries. His raw projection is low 70's for rushing yards but that doesn't mean anything. The stat the should jump out is in the screen shot below (from our NFL CheatSheet) - CAR giving up 5.6 yards per rush! Let's do some quick math. 18 attempts x 5.6 yards per carry = 100.8 rushing yards and we only need 75% of that number to hit this over!
Nich Chubb OVER 81.5 rushing yards:
Volume is key and he had 22 rushing attempts last week and put up 141 yards smashing his over! NYJ weren't terrible against the run last week but Baltimore was playing without J.K. Dobbins so I'm skeptical as their DVOA rush defense is 26th by Football Outsiders. CLE ran at the 7th highest clip in Week 1 and will continue to do so until Watson is back from his suspension. One more screen shot I want to share from our NFL Cheatsheet and that is the O-Line vs. D-Line rankings. You can see CLE ranks #1 in O-Line, #1 in runs of 5-10 yards and 3rd in runs of 10+ yards and the NYJ rank 21st, 24th and 24th giving a clear advantage to Cleveland.
D'ANDRE SWIFT over 60.5 rushing yards:
As stated above WASHINGTON gave up the most rushing yards per attempt last week at a whopping 6.8! That bodes really well for D'Andre Swift and his opportunity.
Lions average 6.4 yards per rush last week so that lines up perfectly for an OVER in this spot.
NOTE: Swift had a limited practive Friday and is questionable for Sunday so check your lineups!
Leonard Fournette OVER 69.5 rushing yards:
Volume is key and 21 rushing attempts is golden! Last week he turned those 21 attempts into 127 yards. The positive thing going for us is that Brady lost his left tackle covering his blind side so he's not going to sit back and try to pick apart the secondary. Expect another 18-20+ rushing attempts for Fournette. Saints have a solid defense but allowed 5.3 yards per carry last week to Atlanta. They allowed 201 rushing yards to the Falcons so I like the opportunity for Fournette to get 70+.
NOTE: Limited practive Friday and is questionable for Sunday so check your lineups! Might just be getting some extra rest with the heavy workload week 1.
Michael Carter OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards:
We always talk "Volume" and both of these NYJ backs got massive targets last week! Breece Hall received 10 targets and Carter 9 targets. Carter caught 7 balls for 40 yards and Hall caught 6 for 38. I like either RB to grab a prop on but went with Michael Carter for this article as he led the snaps 47 to 36 of Hall. NYJ will likely be "down" and throwing the ball to play catch up and that favorites our pass catching RBs!
Ja'Marr Chase OVER 76.5 receiving yards:
Do we even needs to provide stats for this one? His raw projection is over 90+ yards and I'm not sure why Prize Picks is so low on him. In Week 1 he had 16 TARGETS and caught 10 balls for 129 yards! He was over this number in 5 of the last 7 games to end the 2021 season and most of the games he crushed this line putting up 109, 116, 266 and 125 yards in 4 of those.
The only worry I have is that CIN could get a lead and just run the ball making it a boring lower scoring affair. Still electric to have a low prop line on one of the best WR's in the NFL!
DaVante Adams OVER 92.5 yards:
I was wondering how Adams would do with Carr at QB and apparently he's fine! In Week 1 he took a league leading 17 TARGETS and caught 10 balls for 141 yards and touchdown.
Arizona allowed Patrick Mahomes to go over 360 passing yards and 5 touchdowns and he wasn't sacked. This weekend we will see what Derek Carr can do when he isn't getting knocked around.
OTHER RECEIVING YARDS PROPS TO CONSIDER:
Pat Friermuth, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Kirk, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy/Courtland Sutton
SAME GAME PARLAYS!
Carson Wentz over 199.5 passing yards
D'Andre Swift over 49.5 rushing yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 49.5 receiving yards
Curtis Samuel over 24.5 receiving yards
PAYS +215 before any boosted odds!
Nick Chubb over 69.5 rushing yards
Cleveland Browns over 13.5 team points
Michael Carter 3+ catches
Michael Carter 15+ receiving yards
PAYS +140 before any boosted odds!
Russell Wilson over 224.5 passing yards (Could go 199.5 if you want a little safer number!)
JaVonte Williams over 39.5 rushing yards
Jerry Jeudy over 44.5 receiving yards
Courtland Sutton over 44.5 receiving yards
Denver over 20.5 team points
Denver - Race to 15 points
Denver Halftime / Denver Game
PAYS +425 before any boosted odds!
Good Luck Everyone!
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