QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
T.Y. Hilton was the first fill in player in our article last week and he exploded! We also locked in David Montgomery who only had 11 carries but they went for 113 yards and a TD. He also added 3 catches for another 42 yards! Some of these games are on the “Saturday 2 Game Slate” and some are on the “Sunday Main Slate”.
GAME #1 - CAROLINA vs. GREEN BAY
You have to start your lineups with some Green Bay Packers as they have the highest team implied total of the slate and the softest matchup. In the middle of the screen shot above you can see the Packers are 4th in Pass Pro and CAR is 27th at QB pressure. This means Aaron Rodgers will have all the time in the world to air-it-out this week. The other notable thing I want to point out is the upper left circle where we see the 3 green "ADV" tabs in a row. This means there is a HUGE running back advantage for the Packers. This is showing the Packers have the 6th best O-Line facing CAR and the 19th D-Line, they are also 9th and 8th in runs of 5-10 yards and 10+ yards while CAR sits at 20th and 28th. This shows me there will be some explosive run plays by the Packers. I like Aaron Jones and Williams in this matchup. Williams could get some extra run if they get out to a big lead.
KEY NOTES & STATS:
Packers feature the #1 passing "O" and they are facing CAR with the 27th rated pass "D".
Packers also have the #1 Red Zone TD conversation rate at 77.1%.
(See Screen Shot Below:)
Aaron Rodgers is a rock star and has 8 straight weeks of 23+ DKP, he is a safe cash game play and has some upside for GPPs but I would NOT use Aaron Jones + Rodgers in the same lineup as you can see they both never have big games together.
DaVante Adams is the safest WR on the short slate and consistently putting up 20-35 DKPs and should be paired with Aaron Rodgers is GPPs.
Robert Tonyan is cheap and has 4 straight games up 14+ DKPs.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a GPP only play with upside. He has 21 and 28 DKP in 2 of his last 5 games but has a floor of 0.
GAME #2 - BUFFALO vs. DENVER
With only 2 games we are forced to get some pieces of this game. Both teams are decent defenses with solid red zone defense. Both teams are allowing 4.6 yard per rush which ranks in that 22-27 range. There is nothing exciting about a Bills RB but I think one of them will score a TD this week and you need the salary savings to load up elsewhere in your lines. Zach Moss (4500) and Devin Singletary (4100) are extremely cheap. Moss has 20 red zone rushing attempts and Singletary has 17. Singletary has been slightly more productive recently putting up 5, 11 and 12 DKP vs. only 4, 3 and 9 for Moss. If you run two lineups I'd put one RB in each and hope one scores! Dawson Knox (2800) is dirt cheap and getting some solid production. He has 6.4, 13 and 7 DKP over the last 3. That doesn't sound like much but 7 DKP is almost 3x his salary and 13 DKP is over 4x value and allows you some salary savings. He has 11 targets over the last two games. John Brown (3300) should get activated for this game and his last 2 played games in Week 9 and Week 10 he put up 13.2 and 17.9 DKP which would be huge for his low price tag. Josh Allen is my 2nd favorite QB on this slate behind Rodgers. The best thing about Josh Allen is that they can't run the ball and none of the RBs ever explode and eat up all the yards so it's all on Allen. Bills are 21st in rushing "O" but they are 4th in passing "O". If you play Josh Allen you have to pair him with 2 pass catchers. Stefon Diggs is expensive but he has 25-35 DKP upside and a solid floor AND the best WR/CB matchup in the game. Gabriel Davis is the main "deep threat" and has put up 11, 16 and 17 DKP over the last 3 games. Cole Beasley doesn't get as many looks if John Brown is in the lineup but if he is out then fire up Beasley. Beasley has 9, 31, 9 and 31 DKP over his last 4 and that is huge upside on his price tag.
Denver side is where we can get a cheap low owned stack in Drew Lock. He is coming in off another 5x outing last week where he put up 26.6 DKP. He has a floor of 10-12 DKP and a ceiling of 25-30 so this is great for GPPs. Tim Patrick is my favorite WR to pair with him as he is coming off 13, 21 and 20 DKP games. Jerry Jeudy is going to see about half of his routes against Tre'Davious White who is a top shut down corner and Jeudy hasn't done much as of late.
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze