NFL “Saturday Slate” Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I hope you guys read the article last week as we had Kenyon Drake as our “Super Sleeper” for the week and he was only 4.8% owned and scored 4 TOUCHDOWNS and went for 42 DKPs! We also had Breshad Perriman at only 4500 as a solid punt option and he ended up scoring 37.6 DKPs for the 2nd highest scoring WR on the slate behind Julio.
NFL SATURDAY: GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN FOR WEEK 16!
TAMPA BAY 29 vs. HOUSTON 24
VEGAS NUMBERS: Houston opened at +1 and now -3 a whopping 4 point move in less than 2 days! Total also opened at 52.5 and moved down to 49.5. Sports betting algo has this as HOU -4.5 so that easily explains the line flying the other way.
OUR BETTING PICK: Houston -3
FANTASY PICKS:
DeShawn Watson (7000) + DeAndre Hopkins (8500) + Other HOU WRs
So Tampa has the #1 DVOA rush defense and they are allowing the 3rd least amount of fantasy points to the RB position so let’s throw out Dukey and Carlos Hyde as core plays. TB is allowing the 29th most points to the QB position and 32nd most to the WR position. They are also 22nd vs. the WR-1 and 20th vs. the WR-2. So on the Houston side stack up the passing game!
Jameis Winston (6900) + Breshad Perriman (6000)
No Mike Evans, No Chris Godwin and Winston is nursing a hand injury. Houston is allowing the 16th most FP to the WR position and Perriman is the new default #1 in Tampa Bay. Houston also has the 26th rated pass defense DVOA. There are holes where Tampa could run as HOU is allowing the 26th most points to RBs but Tampa is rolling out Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber and only average 91.4 RY per game which ranks only 27th. Nothing there is exciting.
NEW ENGLAND 24 vs. BUFFALO 19
VEGAS NUMBERS: Bills opened at +7 and now down to +6.5 with the total moving from 38.5 down to 38.0. Sports betting algo has this at NE -8 and going over the total.
OUR BETTING PICK: Buffalo +6.5 (see write up below)
FANTASY PICKS:
James White (5800) or Julian Edelman (6400)
I don’t really like many players in this game. Both defenses are stout and almost no points were scored last time they played. NE has the 1st DVOA pass defense while Buffalo has the 3rd best DVOA pass defense. Passing yards allowed rank 2nd and 3rd, rushing yards allowed on defense are the 10th best and 7th best. In the last 10 matchups for these two teams the under is 7-3 and 3-0 in the last 3 games so don’t expect a 55 point shootout. Earlier this year when they played it was 16-10 NE coming away with the win and going under the total of 41.5. However Buffalo out rushed NE 135-74 and had more passing yards 240-150. Buffalo also had 4 turnovers in that game to the 1 by NE. Ok back to the fantasy picks! Sorry for the rambling. If Buffalo can get a lead and NE is playing catchup White & Edelman will be highly involved. NE is a passing team and Buffalo is primarily a running team. Buffalo is averaging the 5th most rushing yards per game at 134.9 while New England is averaging the 9th most passing yards per game at 248.1.
SAN FRANCISCO 28 vs. LA RAMS 21
VEGAS NUMBERS: Lined opened at SF -6.5 and has not moved. Total 46.0 down to 45.5. Sports betting algo on this game in San Fran -4.5 so if it does move I expect it to move down the Rams.
OUR BETTING PICK: San Fran (hold out at -6.5 try to get -6 or better, it won’t hit -7)
FANTASY PICKS:
Todd Gurley (6300), Tyler Higbee (5000), George Kittle (6500)
Earlier this year when these two played it was a 20-7 game with San Fran coming away with the win. San Fran held a total yard edge of 331 to 165 and most of those were passing yards (232 vs. 56). Notable that Todd Gurley didn’t play in that game and he has been on fire as of late. The last 3 weeks he has put up 21, 21 and 18.5 DKPs rushing 11, 23 and 19 times and the game he only rushed 11 times he made up for that with 7 targets and has a TD in all 3 games now. Tyler Higbee is now a TE-1 for the last few weeks of the season. He is coming off 27, 22 and 26 DKP games and has 25 targets over his last two games (14 and 11). He also has 3 100+ yard games in a row with 111, 116 and 107. Wow! Why were they not using him earlier? George Kittle was the highlight of the prior matchup going for 8 catches on 8 targets for 103 yards. Both defenses when looking at rushing, passing, vs. WR-1, WR-2, TE, RB, etc they are ALL IN THE TOP 12 and most in the TOP 10 except for pass catching RBs where the Rams are ranked 24th DVOA vs. pass catching RBs. Get sneaky with that!
EXTRA INTERESTING STATS:
> Last week George Kittle was targeted a whopping 17 times and no one else on the team had over 4 targets.
> Tyler Higbee has 33 targets the last 3 weeks while Kupps snaps are down and only has 6, 4, and 6 targets.
> John Brown is averaging 7.9 targets per game and has 18 in the last two weeks really emerging as a solid option for his QB. Cole Beasley quietly has had 6+ targets in 7 of his last 9 games.
> Mike Evans & Chris Godwin made up 47% of ALL team targets and now both are gone for Week 16 leaving Perriman to fill a giant hole.
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze