NFL Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
HOW DID WE DO IN LAST WEEKS ARTICLE?
Cheat Line had a good run across the entire slate of games but the article games ended with 2-2 and hitting a teaser if you took the top 3 favorite plays. TEN +5.5 rolled up the Chiefs 27-3, IND +4 won 30-18, we lost with CAR and ATL -2.5 won the game 30-28 but lost by a hook taking us from a 3-1 day to 2-2 day. Top 3 teaser recommendations were RAMS (-15 to -5), TB (-12.5 to -2.5) and TEN (+5.5 to +15.5).
ATLANTA (-3) > CAROLINA
Our Model has this game with ATL winning between 3-6 points but if you dig into it you see Carolina is sliding and Atlanta is picking up steam. Last week CAR only had 173 offensive yards (against the Giants) and only managed 3 points and 11 first downs. Atlanta put up 397 yards, 30 points and 21 first downs. Both teams 1-2 ATS Home/Road split and 3-4 and 3-3 on the season. The week prior CAR was outgained 571-306 in total yardage and first downs 26-20. Taking a shot on the HOME team that is playing solid football right now.
CINCINNATI (-10.5) > NYJETS
Our model has this spread right at -10.5 so we agree with Vegas and our new model we are testing has this 33-10 rolling the spread. NYJ are allowing the 25th most rushing yards and 25th most passing yards and over 400 total yards per game which ranks 27th in the NFL. Cincy is allowing the 10th least amount of yards at 339.9 and the Jets will likely be playing a rookie QB (I don’t think Flacco starts this week). CIN crushed DET two weeks ago with a 398-228 yard edge and 20-15 first down edge. Last week CIN dominated a solid Baltimore team IN BALTIMORE with a 520-393 yard edge putting up a 41-17 score! Jets were dominated 54-13 by the Patriots last week giving up a 299-551 yard edge and 18-32 first down edge. Can this game by anything different?
NEW ENGLAND (+4.5) > LAC
Our model has this game around 25-24 with LAC winning at home. Our new model that I’m excited about has NE winning this game 27-21 as a dog. The red flag that is jumping out at me is LAC is giving up the most rushing yards per game in the NFL at 162.5 and we all know Damien Harris can dominate some yards. Chargers also allowing 5.4 yards per carry which is worst in the NFL! Outside of that both teams are close in offensive yards per game 12th vs. 16th and defensive yards per game allowed 12th vs. 19th. Grab the points here as we think NE keeps it close!
TAMPA BAY (-4.5) > SAINTS
Our model has this game at Tampa -9 and winning the game 29-20. Tampa Bay has 27 and 28 first downs in the last two weeks with a 399-213 and 408-311 yard edges and created 5 turnovers last week against a struggling Bears team. Outside of Alvin Kamar the Saints don’t have any big play makers. Last week against Seattle they did manage 21 first downs but were only 2/13 on 3rd downs and put up a lowly 304 yards and squeaked out a win 13-10. Prior to their bye week they played Washington and were outgained in total yardage 373-369, first downs 26-18 but managed a win with 2 turnovers. Tampa is a new beast. The glaring thing holding me back is Tampa is 0-3 ATS on the road while 3-1 ATS at home. I prefer to tease this but leaning a Tampa play because that “D” is starting to surge!
NY GIANTS (+9.5) > KANSAS CITY
Line opened at +13 now down to +9.5 as betting against my Chiefs this year has been very profitable as KC sits at 2-5 ATS and 0-3 ATS at home. NYG sit at 3-4 ATS and 2-1 ATS on the road. Our model has KC -3 and a 27-24 game and our new model has 28-24 but either way 9.5 is a ton of points and that “D” is terrible. KC allowing the 28th most yards per game at 404.6 and the 27th most points at 29 point per game. NYG are not a good team but KC allowing a 73% TD% when teams are in the red zone and 4.7 yards per carry (27th). NYG are coming off a solid win against CAR where they dominated points 25-3, first downs 21-11 and yardage 302-173. I “hope” this is a get right game for KC since I live in KC and I’m a big Chiefs fan but from a stat perspective can’t pass up this many points.
DOG MONEYLINES THAT WE LIKE THIS WEEK: (In order of favorite top to bottom)
TITANS (+130) – Not a huge dog but we have Titans winning this game 24-23 as they continue to make their NFL statement on back to back wins over the Chiefs and Bills. Both teams 5-2 ATS but TEN is 3-0 as a dog! We have these teams almost identical statistically but TEN has a slight edge in projected YPP and A.J. Brown is finally healthy and looks great!
NEW ENGLAND (+175) – Biggest dog that we can get behind this week is the surging Patriots. Mac Jones looks amazing even though he doesn’t get to throw that much and that running game is fire! Chargers allow the most rush yards per game and highest rush yards per attempt in the NFL. Patriots 551 yards last week, 54 points and how about Mac Jones tossing for 403 yards through the air? New England stays in this and has a shot to win it at the end!
STEELERS (+165) – On paper this looks like it’s all Browns - but I hate the Browns so I’m riding the Steelers here. Our model has Browns 28-20 and a huge yardage edge. When looking at the game the Steelers started off slumping after the week 1 win against the Bills putting up only 17, 10 and 17 points while giving up 26, 24 and 27. Then comes Week 5 where they beat Denver 27-19 with a 391-374 yard edge and 19-17 first down edge. Week 6 they beat Seattle 23-20 with another 345-309 yard edge and 22-18 first down edge. They are coming off a “Bye” so they have had 2 weeks to prepare for these Browns. Stats are skewed for Cleveland as they beat Houston and Chicago which are terrible teams but lost 37-14 against ‘Zona and 47-42 vs. the Chargers. Steelers keep this close and have a shot at the end!
DETROIT LIONS (+160) – Can you believe this Lions team went into LA and put up more yards than the Rams in their own house? They led total yardage 415-374 and were not far away from first downs 22-19. DET is still 0-7 but 4-3 ATS and they have a shot to get their first win of the year at home this weekend!
TEASER BETS (Already slammed these):
2 Team 6 Point Teaser:
Titans (+2.5 to +8.5) + Buffalo (-14 down to -8)
3 Team 10 Point Teaser:
Bengals (-10.5 to -0.5) + Titans (+2.5 to +12.5) + Tampa Bay (+4.5 to +5.5)
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze