SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) OVER SEATTLE (***SUNDAY BEST BET!***)
CHEAT LINE PROJECTED SCORE: SAN FRAN 24 vs SEATTLE 17
San Fran has the #1 Red Zone TD conversation percentage in the NFL at 77.4% and they are facing a team that is struggling since the return of Russell Wilson. Over last 3 games SEA is 29th in offensive yards per game and allowing the 30th most defensive yards per game. SF is 10th in offensive yards per game and allowing the 2nd least amount of yards over that same last 3 game span. Seattle on a 28-57 actual point deficit over last 3 weeks.
Last Week Games:
San Fran knocked off MIN 34-26 and held a 23-17 FD edge and 423-323 total yard edge. Seattle was knocked off by WAS 17-15 and absolutely crushed on the stat sheet giving up a 27-10 FD edge and 371-267 total yard edge.
Prior Week Games:
SF played a horrible Jax team and crushed them 30-10 with a 25-14 FD edge and a 333-200 total yard edge. Easy game for them. Seahawks were knocked off by Arizona 23-13 and they gave up another 29-16 FD edge and 413-266 total yard edge. Wow!
Prior Week Games:
Seattle lost to Packers 17-0 and gave up a 22-15 FD edge and 393-208 yard edge. SF thumped the Rams 31-10 and held a 20-16 FD edge, 335-278 total yard edge.
INDY (-10) OVER HOUSTON
CHEAT LINE PROJECTED SCORE: INDY 29 vs HOUSTON 16
Houston is dead last in offensive yards per game over the last 3 at only 221. IND is 4-1 ATS on the road and 7-5 ATS on the season. Let’s look at INDY first and break them down. They just played a good game against a solid Tampa Bay team and lost 38-31. In that game they held a 392-357 total yard edge. The prior week they crushed a good Buffalo team 41-15 and held a 28-19 FD edge and 370-311 total yard edge. Indy is playing great right now.
Houston got beat by the NYJ last week 21-14 and was down a 13-18 FD edge and 202-266 total yard deficit. They were only able to manage 13 first downs and 202 total yard against the Jets so what do you think Indy can do to them? The prior week Houston BEAT the Titans 22-13 and that will fool the betting public to think Houston might have a chance here, but they don’t. In that game against the Titans they only had 15 first downs and 190 total yards. The Titans dominated that game 26-15 on first downs and 420-190 total yards but they had 5 TURNOVERS that killed them. Don’t be fooled - Houston is still horrible and Indy will be able to easily win this game. Lay it!
ALSO CONSIDER THESE TIER 2 PLAYS:
ARIZONA (-7 buy 0.5) OVER CHICAGO
CHEAT LINE PROJECTED SCORE: ARIZONA 26 vs CHICAGO 15
Chicago is 32nd in protecting their QB and Arizona is 5th in QB pressure. Bears are 30th in offensive yards per game on the season but a much better 4th over the last 3 games. Arizona is 8-3 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the road while Chicago is 2-3 ATS at home and 4-7 ATS on the season. Cardinals are 3rd in Red Zone TD conversation rate at 70.5% and Chicago is 28th at only 50%.
3 TEAM – 10 POINT TEASER
TAMPA BAY (-11 DOWN TO -1) – NFL Cheatsheet has this projected at 31-18 with Tampa Bay rolling by the Falcons. This teaser is a way for me to get exposure to the game without laying double digits. ATL is dead last in QB pressure and Tampa Bay is #1 in QB protection. This game features #1 offense vs. 29th defense and then 6th best defense vs. 31st offense.
INDY (-10 DOWN TO PICK) – Read the above breakdown.
RAMS (-12.5 DOWN TO -2.5) – Rams have now lost 3 straight games and NEED TO WIN against a horrible JAX team. They were knocked off by the Packers 36-28, San Fran 31-10 and Titans 28-16. Rams have only put up 15, 16 and 16 first downs in those 3 games. Our Cheat Line model on our NFL Cheatsheet has this score projected at 28-18. With a 3 game skid I’m not laying that many points but like some exposure on a teaser because they are a good team and it has to turn around this week.
FUN PARLAY FOR THE WEEKEND:
TAMPA BAY (ML)
SAN FRAN (-3 BUY .5)
GEORGIA (ML) > ALABAMA
MICHIGAN (ML) > IOWA
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Thanks for reading & good luck!