NFL Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I am back! I had surgery on December 17th and it took me longer to recover than expected so I’ve been posting sheets and then just trying to survive! On Thursday I finally got the “clear” to go ahead with normal life on light duty and I’m awake, alert and breathing great! Tomorrow on Christmas Day we will be releasing v3.0 of the College Basketball betting sheet bringing in the KenPom stats, rankings and then averaging them with our algorithms to give a new perspective! Apologize the articles fell to the wayside but had to get some “real life” stuff done that I’ve been waiting years to do!
CHRISTMAS DAY – 6.5 Point TEASER – 2 UNITS
PACKERS (-7.5 down to -1) + COLTS (+1 TO +7.5)
Packers opened -7 and now -7.5 with 92% of the cash and 92% of the tickets. Colts opened at +4.5 and now +1 with 60% of cash and 60% of tickets.
In a “Safe” scenario we have Packers winning by 3 which is why I prefer to tease this down and not lay the touchdown and the hook. Over the last 3 games Browns are 29th in offensive yards per game and Packers are 4th while both defensive units are allowing 340 and 351 yards per game. Browns will be able to run but Packers are playing hot right now and they are 11-3 ATS and 6-0 ATS at home. Last week CLE allowed the Raiders to outgain them 20-13 in first downs and 328-236 in total yards. Raiders lost the turnover battle 0-2 and they still won the game 16-14. Packers have a power ranking of 52 and Raiders 45 so the Packers are around a touchdown better team on a neutral field. Don’t mind laying the spread but the tease feels like a slam dunk.
Colts are 5-1 ATS on the road and Arizona is 2-4 ATS at home. Colts are playing great right now so getting a touchdown and a hook feels like another slam dunk. Last week the Colts faced off against the red hot Patriots and won 27-17 while rushing for 226 total yards on one of the top rush defenses. Arizona has been struggling but did outgain the Rams 22-18 in first downs, 447-356 in total yards but lost the turnover battle 0-2. Both of these teams have a power ranking of 51 making them an even matchup on a neutral field. This should be a back and forth tight game. Take the +7.5!
SUNDAY PICKS:
LA CHARGERS (-10) OVER HOUSTON – 1 UNIT
Vegas opened this game at -10.5 and now sits at -10 with 94% of the cash on LAC and 78% of the tickets. Our last 3 game only model has this 32-16 and the Cheat 2 Model has this 29-17. LAC is 4-2 ATS on the road and HOU is 3-4 ATS at home. Over the last 3 games HOU is a horrible 28th in offensive yards per game while LAC is sitting at 3rd best in the NFL with 405 per game. Both teams allowing the 31st and 27th most yards per game. HOU is 31st in Red Zone TD conversion percentage at only 48.3%. HOU beat JAX last week 30-16 but only had 13 first downs and 281 total yards. Last week LAC played KC and took them into OT after eventually losing 34-28 but they did manage 28 first downs and 428 total yards. Joey Bosa, Austin Ekeler and the starting center are likely out for the game so that is worth noting. As long as Justin Herbert doesn’t come down with Covid I’m taking LAC here. They have scored 28, 37 and 41 points over the last 3 games and HOU still only 31st in PPG on the season.
LA RAMS (-3) OVER MINNY VIKINGS – 1 UNIT
Dalvin Cook likely out this week and Kirk Cousins looked awful last week. Minny allowed a bad Bears team to put up 24 first downs and 370 total yards on them but the 3 fumbles allowed them to only score 9 points giving the Vikes an ugly win. LA rams picked Kyler twice and beat Arizona 30-23. Cheat 2 model has Rams 28-24 and using only the last 3 model we have 27-21 Rams. Over the last 3 games both teams are 7th and 9th in offensive yards per game which is great but the defense is where these teams separate each other. MIN is allowing the 25th most yards per game while LAR allowing the 5th least amount of yards. If Adam Thielen is unable to go then Jalen Ramsey could spent a lot of time on Justin Jefferson slowing him down.
RAVENS / BENGALS OVER 45 TOTAL POINTS – 1 UNIT
Vegas opened this at 44.5 and now up to 45. Our last 3 only model has this at 50.3 points and our Cheat 2 model has this at 47.4 total points. Tyler Huntley was amazing last week throwing for 2 TDs and running for 2 more against the Packers. Ravens led by Huntley put up 24 first downs and 354 total yards which was great production from the young QB. CIN was beat up by DEN last week with only 12 first downs and 249 total yards but Baltimore is severely depleted this week. Baltimore will be without several secondary pieces.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze