NFL Daily Fantasy Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Sorry I was unable to get a DFS article out last week. Holidays are a crazy time of year and had some family covid stuff going on. Jumping back in this week with some DFS breakdowns for everyone. I like running 3 RBs this week on DK.
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
STACKS WE LIKE FOR THIS WEEK:
LA Rams: Matthew Stafford + Odell Beckham (Q) + (Kupp/Jefferson)
Cooper Kupp is a whopping 9000 this week so it’s almost impossible for him to hit 4x-5x value so I like the pivot down to Beckham who is only 5500 on DK and 6000 on FD. This is a 3500 DK savings and 3000 on FD and we can use this money elsewhere getting the same exposure to the Rams. Last week Beckham and Kupp both had 10 targets, take the savings. Now if you can afford to get Kupp I don’t mind it but if you need to save some money then Van Jefferson has 7, 7 and 9 targets over the last 3 weeks.
Colts: Carson Wentz + Michael Pittman
I would assume that Jonathan Taylor will be highly owned this week and if you want to get some leverage against the chalk then I like the Wentz stack. The targets are really spread out between Pittman, Pascal, Doyle and Hilton so it comes down to whoever catches the touchdown. Don’t get me wrong - Taylor will have his solid 20-30 DKP game but at his price tag there isn’t much value if you want to take down a GPP. Wentz is cheap at 6100 on DK and 7500 on FD. He has eclipsed 20 DKPs in 5 of the last 8 weeks. HOU ranks dead last in deep ball passes of 20+ yards down field which should help Pittman pop this week.
49’ers: Jimmy Garoppolo + Brandon Aiyuk
Garoppolo only has 12, 16 and 15 DKPs over the last 3 weeks but his price tag is only 5700 DK/6600 FD and that gives him an almost 3x return which isn’t terrible. He does have a last 5 game ceiling of 30.3 DKP that came in Week 8 which is 5.3x value and great for GPPs. SEA is allowing the 30th most yards per game over the last 3 and 31st most passing yards per game over the last 3. Deebo Samuel is out this week so Brandon Aiyuk should gobble up all the targets priced at 5600 DK/7000 FD he is a great pair with Garoppolo. Aiyuk has two 4x value games in the last 4 weeks and this week is without Deebo Samul. Let’s go!
GAME STACK TABLE from the NFL CheatSheet with some Combos:
PLAYERS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
Load him up this week and lock him in this week. The last 4 weeks this guy has been killing it with 35.3, 27.3, 28 and 25.1 DKPs! Chargers allowing the 29th highest rushing yards per carry at 4.7 and 145.3 rushing yards per game on the season. What I love about Mixon is the number of carries he is getting! He has 28 and 30 over the last two games and has put up 165 and 123 yards! Also he is getting in the endzone with 2, 2, 2, 1 and 1 touchdowns over his last 5 games!
One of the better chalk plays for this week is Mattison vs. Detroit. Over the last 3 games Detroit has allowed 132 rushing yards per game which ranks 25th in the NFL and on the season they have allowed the 29th most rushing yards per game at 133.9. In Week 3 and Week 5 Mattison had the back field to himself so let’s look and see how he did. In Week 5 he rushed 25 times for 113 yards and had 7 catches for 40 yards putting up 30.3 DKPs. In Week 3 he rushed for 26 times for 112 yards and had 8 catches for another 59 yards for 26.1 DKPs. Detroit also ranks 30th vs. pass catching RBs! Love him for cash games this week!
Hard not to consider Fournette after that 131 total yard & 4 touchdown performance last week against INDY who was considered one of the best rush defenses in the league. I don’t like him for GPPs just because the ownership will be high from what everyone saw last week and his normal ceiling is about 2.5x his 7300 price tag. Don’t mind him for cash games though. Prior to last week he only had 13, 17, 7 and 17 points across 4 decent games and at 7.3K you really need 22 DKP to even get to 3x. It’s rare Tom Brady is going to give up the spotlight two weeks in a row! Matchup is solid as ATL giving up the 24th most rushing yards per game ove the last 3 at 130 per game and 23rd most on the season at 124.9.
Swift is out for the foreseeable future so now we turn to Jamaal Williams at only 5400 on DK and 6500 on FD. Last week had had 15 carries and 5 catches giving us a solid floor at 5400. We really need him to get into the end zone to get GPP value but cash value he shouldn’t have any issue hitting. MIN is giving up the 31st highest rushing yard per attempt at 4.8 yards per carry and the 23rd most rushing yards per game. I project him somewhere around 60-70 rushing yards, a touchdown (hopefully) and 4 catches for 40 yards putting him at around 20 DKPs so close to 4x.
JD McKissic wasn’t practicing at the time of writing this so keep an eye on his status. If he is out then Gibson could get a heavy workload in a good matchup. Vegas giving up the 25th most rushing yards per game on the season at 125.9. The last 3 weeks he has 29, 19 and 24 carries so we are starting to see more of last years usage. Last week he had 29 carries for 111 rushing yards and 7 catches on 7 targets for another 35 yards and put up 26.6 DKPs. That was over 4x his current salary without scoring a TD.
Thursday Henderson did not practice and if he doesn’t practice today (Friday) it’s unlikely he plays on Sunday. Sony Michel will take over the back field as the primary RB at only 4300 on DK and 5300 on FD. Matchup isn’t great against JAX as they are middle of the road rushing defense on the season. On a positive note over the last 3 games they are giving up the most rushing yards per game at a whopping 149 so that’s a plus!
This guy is a work horse running back! He has 54 carries over the last two weeks putting up 133 and 91 yards. He is occasionally mixed into the passing game as in 2 of the last 3 he has 5+ targets. Coming off a 30.8 DKP game and priced at only 6000 on DK and 7600 on FD he has to be considered. His game last week was 5x his DK salary this week so that is great for GPPs. SEA has been slightly better on “D” but still rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game. Over the last 3 games they are 30th in total yards allowed per game and San Fran runs the ball at the 2nd highest clip in the NFL.
JAYLEN WADDLE/DEVANTE PARKER
Parker could return to the field this week and he is only 3900 on DK which is dirt cheap! If he doesn’t then I love Waddle to fill in one of the WR spots in your GPP lineup. Waddle has 52.3 DKPs over the last two games and heavily involved as the clear WR-1 priced at 6400 DK/6900 FD.
Ja’Marr Chase has fallen off a bit putting up only 6.9, 13, 9.9 and 13.1 DKPs over the last 4 weeks but during that span the running game has picked up and Tee Higgins has been very efficient and coming off a 26.4 DKP game. He is also more than 1K cheaper on both sides than Chase.
FOSTER MOREAU/HUNTER RENFROW
I will have one or the other in almost all of my lineups this week. Hunter Renfrow has 9, 4, 9 and 9 targets the last 4 weeks leading the team. The TE is the other person Carr always finds and Moreau is only 2700 on DK and 5000 on FD. I hate digging through the TE spots so when I find a cheap one I usually ride him and work on my other spots.
TOP TARGET MONSTERS FROM LAST WEEK:
DVP STATS FOR THE NFL THIS WEEK:
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Thanks for reading & good luck!