NFL DFS Picks WEEK 13 from CheatSheetPros!
GAME BY GAME BREAKDOWN:
I’m going to open the game with our ALGO projected score and then hit on the players that are viable in the game. I’m not able to write up every game so I’m picking the best ones with some upside.
PACKERS 25 vs. GIANTS 22
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at Giants +7.5 and now down to Giants +6. Total has shifted 2 points to the under opening at 46.5 and now 44.5. 92% of the bets are on the Packers ML and 75% on Packers spread with 70% on the under. Our Sports Betting Algo Line is Packers -7.5.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Giants are a negative team meaning they are giving up more yards per point on defense than they are able to score as a yard per point on offense. Giants are allowing 28 points per game (29th) and allowing 117.5 rushing yards per game (22nd) and 260 passing yards per game (26th). So you can play anyone on the Packers. Aaron Jones (6800) is a solid play. DeVante Adams (7000) is also a solid play. Giants are giving up 42.6 fantasy points to the WR position (31st) and they also rank 31st vs. the WR-1. When considering Aaron Jones I found the Giants are also 29th vs. pass catching RBs!
Packers have the 28th rush defense DVOA. So consider Saquon Barkley (7400) who has been struggling after his injury. Packers are 16th rated pass defense DVOA and 11th vs. WR-1 and 3rd vs. WR-2. So not much else I like on the Giants.
PANTHERS 24 vs. REDSKINS 16
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at Panthers -9 and now -10. Total opened at 41 and now down to 39. We have the Sports Betting Algo Line at Panthers -6.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Carolina has the 7th DVOA pass defense but they are allowing the 29th most fantasy points to the WR position at 41.7. Carolina has the 32nd rated rush defense and they are allowing 127.5 rushing yards per game (27th). I’m not going to recommend anyone on the Redskins but look at the stats and make your picks! Panthers are facing the 21st rated rush defense and 26th rated pass defense. CMC is (10,500) again and has shown that 25 points is a floor so if you can afford him he is a fine play. I am leaning to CMC as WAS is 4th best vs. the WR-1 so if they take D.J. Moore out of the game then it’s going to be a heavy dose of CMC with some Curtis Samuel (4800). WAS is 32nd vs. the WR-2 so could this be a Samuel blow up week?
SAN FRANCISCO 28 vs. BALTIMORE 28
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at Ravens -4.5 and now -5.5. Total has moved from 46 to 45. Bets are split down the middle. Our Sports Betting Algo Line is Ravens -3.5 so we are leaning San Fran +5.5 as that is a generous 2 points. You heard it here first this is the SUPERBOWL for this year!
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
This game is going to be amazing! We have the #1 and #2 scoring offenses at 30.2 points per game for San Fran and 35.1 for Baltimore. Both teams also have been solid on defense allowing only 14.8 points per game for San Fran (2nd) and 18.4 for Baltimore (5th). Rushing yards allowed: San Fran giving up only 111 (19th) and Baltimore 87.7 (3rd). Passing yards allowed: San Fran only allowing 136.9 (1st) and Baltimore 235 (16th). I could see this game going 9-6, 12-9, etc or I could see the offenses prevailing and this being a 38-35 game. We have this at 55.4 total points which is 10+ points over the total.
DVOA pass defenses are 2nd and 3rd. San Fran is facing the 25th rated rush defense but that is still only 111 yards per game. Look for them to lean on the multi-RBs in the backfield in Matt Breida (4900), Tevin Coleman (5900), etc. Baltimore is facing the 19th rated rush defense (DVOA) and they are the #1 rushing offense. So plenty of Lamar Jackson (7000), Mark Ingram (6000). Marquise Brown (5300) or Willie Snead (3600) are good punt options because they are so cheap! My suggestion would be to either game stack it or stay away. If you stack it and it goes nuts then you are solid but if it flops then you don’t want any part of it.
PHILLY 24 over DOLPHINS 17
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at Eagles -7.5 and now -10. Total opened at 46.5 and now down to 45. We have the projected line to be Philly -7.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (5400) and DeVante Parker (5700) are both cheap enough to use in your lineups. They are always down so the volume is always there. Philly has drastically improved on defense and now sit at the 7th rated rush defense and 12th rated pass defense. However, they are 26th in fantasy points to the WR at 39.4. Carson Wentz (5800) is viable as Miami makes everyone look amazing. They are giving up the 27th most points to the QB position at 23 and have the 32nd rated passing defense (DVOA). Jordan Howard is OUT meaning Miles Sanders (5400) will be another high owned chalk piece this week. However, I’m looking at Jay Ajayi (3000) on DK. Philly should be ahead, running out the clock, Sanders is not a between the tackles runner and if they get the ball on the 1 yard line Jay Ajayi will get the revenge narrative touchdown. Alshon Jeffrey (5100) could get a ton of targets if Zach Ertz is out. (currently Q). Mack Collins (3100) is a deep dive that caught a handful of balls last week.
TAMPA BAY 28 vs. JAX 19
VEGAS LOOK:
Line opened at Tampa Bay +4.5 and moved 7 points to Tampa Bay -2.5! Total has moved from 49.5 down to 47.5. Projected sports bettor line is Tampa -5.5 so we still have value on the Tampa side.
FANTASY BREAKDOWN:
Ronald Jones (5100) should have success against the 30th rated rush defense that has been getting killed on the ground as of late. They are also giving up the 26th most fantasy points to the RB position. D.J. Chark (6600) on the other side should also have success facing a defense that is giving up the most fantasy points to the WR position in the entire league at 49.7 (32nd) and they are also 23rd vs. WR-1s.
OTHER PLAYERS TO CONSIDER THAT DIDN’T MAKE A FULL GAME WRITE-UP:
Josh Jacobs (6900) – Facing KC who is giving up the most fantasy points to the RB position at 33.1 (32nd) and have the 31st rated rush defense (DVOA). Weather is also going to be a concern in this game and with the high powered offense of Mahomes & Co. Oakland will want to run clock and keep them off the field.
Darren Waller (5500) – Oakland likely to be down and KC is 4th best vs. the WR position but they are 27th vs. the TE. Catchup and garbage points on DK where you get full point per reception.
Todd Gurley (6500) – is worth a shot in GPP as ARI is giving up the 24th most points to the RB position and they are 30th vs. pass catching RBs.
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Haze