NFL Bets from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL Week 17 is tricky because of so many starters getting the week off. I have listed off the teams that have something to play for and will discuss the line movements. These are games I’m looking at for Week 17.
TEAMS THAT NEED TO WIN THIS WEEK:
TITANS – If they win they are in, if they lose and Dolphins and Ravens win they will be knocked out.
COLTS – They must win this week AND a loss from Miami, Baltimore or Cleveland.
RAVENS – Win against Cincy and they are in.
BROWNS – They win and they are in for the first time since 2002.
DOLPHINS – They need a win vs. Buffalo and if they lose they need a loss from Ravens, Browns or Colts.
CARDINALS – They win and they are in.
BEARS – They need to beat the Packers or Rams to beat Arizona.
WASHINGTON – Win and they are in.
DALLAS – They need to win just to have a shot at getting in.
GIANTS – They need to win AND a loss by Washington.
BETTING PICKS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
I think this is a great week for teasing lines and picking up must win teams. Here are some plays that I like. I’m going to focus on the 3 team 10 point teaser first.
MUST PLAY #1: COLTS (-4)
Vegas line opened at -12.5 and has moved to -14. Colts are in a must win situation facing a JAX team that is starting Mike Glennon and no James Robinson. JAX is allowing the 30th most rushing yards per game at 145.3 and a whopping 4.5 yards per rush. They also rank 31st in pass “D”. Colts will easily be able to score and that Colt “D” is solid ranking 8th overall. Colts put this game away with ease! Laying -14 is hard with any NFL team but teasing it down makes me love it! Our custom model has this game 32-19 Colts!
MUST PLAY #2: RAVENS (-2)
Vegas line opened at -12.5 and now -12. 92% of the tickets are on the Ravens. Ravens are in a must win game against the Bengals who are struggling. CIN ranks 28th in total “O” and 27th in total “D”. They are also allowing a whopping 4.8 yards per rush and 131.1 rushing yards per game. In come the Ravens who sit #1 in rush yards per game with 177.8 and a QB who has been on a tear the last 4 weeks. Lamar finally started to run again and has put up 80, 35, 124 and 94 rush yards over the last 4 weeks. They also have two very capable RBs with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Our custom model has this game 29-20 Ravens and I’d even bump that up a notch with the Ravens in a must win. CIN D-Line ranks 27th, in allowing runs of 5-10 yards they rank 28th and allowing runs of 10+ yards they rank 31st. Ravens run all over them and take an easy win. BAL “D” ranks 9th overall and add in that CIN ranks 30th in TD conversion percentage in the red zone and you can add this game and sleep easy!
OPTIONS FOR THE 3RD GAME OF THE TEASER:
I like to give people some options when there are a few games that I am torn between. Here is the breakdown of those games you can consider for the 3rd leg of the teaser.
OPTIONAL - PACKERS (+5.5)
Vegas line opened at -5.5 and now -4.5 so if you tease this game you cross the zero mark (which is usually not recommended) but Packers are trying to clinch the #1 seed so they are playing all out. This game could be close so love taking the points here with an offense that is putting up 31.6 PPG. Our model has this game Packers 28-24. Bears will have success running the ball so they will put some points on the board but Packers have the #1 Red Zone TD conversation percentage at 78.6%.
OPTIONAL – TITANS/HOUSTON OVER 46
Vegas line opened at 56 and still 56 with 99% of tickets on the over. Teasing it down to 46 is very tempting. TEN is in a must win game and they average 30 PPG and hold the #3 total “O” in the league. However, they also hold the 29th rated “D” so Houston should be able to get some points on the board. Houston can’t run as they rank 30th in rushing yards per game (30th) so they will need to throw. TEN has the 30th rated passing “D” and they allow 271.9 passing yards per game (28th). Our custom model has this Titans 33-27 so scoring 60 total points. Doesn’t that total look tempting?
OPTIONAL – CLEVELAND (+2.5)
Vegas line opened at -4 and moved to -8.5 upon the news of Mason Rudolph starting for PIT. PIT should also be resting several key starters in this game but that is not confirmed so double check for me. Browns are in a must win game against the reeling Steelers. This is probably my least favorite game of the 3 optional games. I don’t like the tease across 0 and +2.5 is rarely a benefit as 3 is the key number you want to get over. However, PIT can’t run as they rank dead last in rush yards per game at 84.3 and then they are starting Mason Rudolph at QB which could be a disaster.
MY TEASER RIGHT NOW:
COLTS (-4), RAVENS (-2), TITANS/TEXANS OVER 46
STRAIGHT BETS THAT I’M LOOKING AT FOR THE WEEK:
CHARGERS (-3.5) OVER KANSAS CITY – KC has nothing to play for so Chris Jones, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are not going to play in this game among others. Chargers will have Herbert who loves to sling it all over and with KC rolling out Chad Henne and the 2nd and 3rd stringers I don’t mind a unit on the Chargers here.
ARIZONA (-3) OVER LA RAMS – Line opened at Rams -4.5 and then flipped to ‘Zona -3 after the news of Goff and his surgery. Rams will roll out John Wolford under center so that means a ton of rushing attempts vs. a rush “D” that is allowing 126.5 rushing yards per game (23rd). Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground and put points on the board but not quickly. I don’t see John Wolford airing it out if they fall behind. If Kyler is healthy he could have a big game as they need to win here. Last time he played them he had less than 200 passing yards but thew for 3 touchdowns. Basically you are looking at the Cardinals with the 20th “O” in the NFL facing the Rams and the 5th best “D” and then the Rams with the 8th best “O” running with a backup QB against the 10th “D”. I don’t mind a unit on Zona as I would love to see the youngster and D-Hop get into the playoffs here.
COWBOYS (-1.5) OVER GIANTS – Line opened at Giants -3.5 and quickly shifted over to the Cowboys at -1.5. Cowboys are getting better and Dalton is getting comfortable in this offense. Cowboys “D” is the main question mark as they rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game but they have been improving. Over the last 3 games their yards allowed per rush is down from 5.0 to 4.2 and the total rushing yards allowed is also down from 161.1 down to 134. Cowboys over the last 3 games have beat the Eagles 37-17, 49’ers 41-33 and Bengals 30-7. Giants over the last 3 games have lost 27-13 to the Ravens, lost 20-6 to the Browns and lost 26-7 against the Cardinals. Roll with the hot Cowboys!
Thanks for reading and good luck!
Haze