NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL Week 17 is tricky because there are so many offensive and defensive weapons that will rest for the playoffs. Make sure you are playing players that have something to play for and a need to win. You can throw most of the “ranks” out the window because if the team has clinched they likely won’t play their studs.
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
TEAMS THAT NEED TO WIN THIS WEEK:
TITANS – If they win they are in, if they lose and Dolphins and Ravens win they will be knocked out.
COLTS – They must win this week AND a loss from Miami, Baltimore or Cleveland.
RAVENS – Win against Cincy and they are in.
BROWNS – They win and they are in for the first time since 2002.
DOLPHINS – They need a win vs. Buffalo and if they lose they need a loss from Ravens, Browns or Colts.
CARDINALS – They win and they are in.
BEARS – They need to beat the Packers or Rams to beat Arizona.
WASHINGTON – Win and they are in.
DALLAS – They need to win just to have a shot at getting in.
GIANTS – They need to win AND a loss by Washington.
TEAM STACKS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
BAKER MAYFIELD (5500) + AUSTIN HOOPER (3800) + JARVIS LANDRY (6500) – Must win game for the Browns and Baker is averaging 3x value on the season and priced at a low 5500 on DK. His last 4 games he has 10, 21, 34 and 36 DKP points. PIT is resting several players for this game so if he can get to a 30+ DKP game that is 5x-6x-7x value!
KYLER MURRAY (7500) + DEANDRE HOPKINS (7900) – Arizona is in a must win situation vs. a Rams team that is Goff-Less. Vegas line opened at Rams -4.5 and after the news of Goff it has shifted all the way to Arizona -3. Kyler threw for 3 TDs last time he faced the Rams but he is also nursing an injury and couldn’t run so that was only good for 18 DKPs. Expect the best games from Kyler and D-Hop as they are looking to get into the playoffs!
RYAN TANNEHILL (7000) + A.J. BROWN (7200) – If you want to fade the Derrick Henry chalk vs. the Houston run “D” then I don’t mind the passing game stack here. TEN could get eliminated from the playoffs this week if they don’t win so expect a big Henry and Tannehill game! Vegas opened Titans at -4.5 and now it’s -7.5. Houston has the 29th rated passing “D” and allowing 260 passing yards per game.
PHILLIP RIVERS (6000) + T.Y. HILTON (5800) + ZACH PASCAL (4200) – This stack is cheap and Colts need to win. T.Y. Hilton has had some great games the ladder half of the season putting up a run of 18, 28 and 25.6 DKP over weeks 12-15 and Zach Pascal (4200) has stepped up and had the big games in week 15 and 16 with 24.9 and 15.4 DKPs. Rivers & Pascal make for a cheap stack at only 10,200 total and provides plenty of upside.
AARON RODGERS (7400) + ANY PASS CATCHER YOU CAN AFFORD – Packers need to win to make the Aaron Rodgers MVP argument AND they are still trying to clinch the #1 seed.
PLAYERS TO FILL IN WITH YOUR STACKS:
LAMAR JACKSON (8000) – Huge rushing upside facing a poor rush defense and he has put up 22, 30, 38 and 27 DKP over the last 4 weeks. Lamar finally started to run again with 80, 35, 124 and 94 rush yards over the last 4 weeks. Bar the door he could go nuts in a must in game!
DERRICK HENRY (9400) – He is expensive but playing in a “must-win” game against the 30th rated rushing “D” that is allowing 151.7 rushing yards per game! Houston is allowing 5.0 rush yards per attempt on the season and that number is out to 5.9 per attempt over the last 3 games. There is a small chance he could get to the 2,000 rushing yard mark but he would need over 200 yards so I expect the Titans to at least give him a shot at it and he should get 25-30 carries in this game.
JONATHAN TAYLOR (7400) – Colts need to win this game and get some help from a couple other teams. Line opened at Colts -12.5 and now out to -14. JAX is allowing 145 rushing yards per game which ranks 30th in the NFL. Now over the last 3 games JAX has allowed an average of 178 rush yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush attempt.
MYLES GASKINS (6500) – Miami loves using a sole RB and they need to beat the Bills who are likely not resting any starters. To make matters worse, the savior, Ryan Fitzpatrick will be out of this game due to a covid positive test or close contact I can’t remember which. Gaskin is coming off a 33.9 DKP game and facing a middle of the road Bills defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per rush and 122.9 rushing yards per game. Gaskin is better on DK where you get the PPR benefit.
GUS EDWARDS (4900) – J.K. DOBBINS (6700) will be the higher owned player but I’m going to go with Gus at a whopping 1800 less. BAL needs to win the game and they come in with the #1 rushing “O” with 177.8 rushing yards per game and facing a JAX team that is allowing 131 rush yards per game ranking 25th. Over the last 4 weeks both Dobbins and Edwards have been close in points. Week 13 (13.1 vs. 13.1), Week 14 (13.3 vs. 18.3 for Gus), Week 15 (15.1 vs. 9.8) and Week 16 was(13.7 vs. 14.2 for Gus). Save the 1800.
MASON RUDOLPH (4300) – This is the cheapest I’ve ever seen a QB! He has all the weapons needed for success and facing the 25th rated pass “D”. He is projected for around 225 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns. If you give him the 225 passing yards and 1 TD that is 13 DKPs which is around 3x value and that should be a FLOOR for him this week. The team can’t run as they rank 30th in rushing “O” and they are great at QB protection where they rank #1 and CLE is 18th at getting after the QB. Not a bad GPP punt play.
DREW LOCK (5000) – He is a consistent 3x QB at near min price. Raiders are 29th and putting pressure on the QB and they rank 27th, 24th and 28th vs. coverage of WR-1, WR-2 and WR-3. He gives you a good cash game floor with some upside like he showed in Week 14 where he eclipsed 5x value. Tim Patrick (4000) and Noah Fant (4400) continue to be the top producing targets if you want to stack him up!
WAYNE GALLMAN (5300) – Gallman is facing a DAL team that is allowing 161 rushing yards per game which ranks dead last in the NFL. They are also allowing 5.0 yards per carry on the season which ranks 31st. They have been better over the last 3 games but there is still opportunity for Gallman.
Thanks for reading,