NFL Week 6 DFS, Sports Betting & Prize Picks!
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DAILY FANTASY SPORTS:
We are going to focus on the value plays with 3 quarterbacks, a couple running backs and a handful of wide receivers!
WEEKLY CHEATSHEETPROS DRAFTKINGS CONTEST: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/152165256
JUSTIN FIELDS (7300/8500)
Over the last two games Justin Fields has thrown for 8 touchdowns and passed for 335 and 282 yards. MIN is allowing the 22nd most passing yards per game. He has 32.9 and 33.0 DKPs over the last two games which is over 4x value two weeks in a row. DJ Moore is the only stack option I’m interested in pairing with Fields. Moore is coming off a two game span which combined for 16 catches on 19 targets for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns so don’t waste time trying to use Mooney or St. Brown.
JOSHUA DOBBS (5200/6700)
Before his struggles last week he had put up 23.4, 17.1 and 25.2 DKPs at around a $5K price tag which is GREAT VALUE! This week he gets to face the Rams who have a suspect defense. Don’t forget Dobbs had rushed for 41-55 yards 3 games in a row before facing Cincy last week and being held to only 3 rushing attempts. His price tag is so low that you can easily hit value with him in your lineups. Marquise Brown is a great stack option with Dobbs and has scored a touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games. Michael Wilson or Zach Ertz if you want to be different or add another option.
GARDNER MINSHEW (5000/6500)
Love some Gardner Minshew this week! JAX is allowing the 5th least amount of rushing yards per game but they are allowing the 27th most passing yards per game and Minshew can air-it-out! He stepped in Week 2 and went 19 of 23 for 171 yards and a touchdown. Josh Downs (4100/5600) is a great WR to stack up with Minshew and he is coming off a 6/97 game. Most people will likely stack Michael Pittman but Downs will save you money and make your lineups different!
RAHEEM MOSTERT (6400)
De’Von Achane really ate into his production but now Achane is on the IR so it’s back to the Mostert show! Remember the 18 for 121 and 2 touchdown performance in Week 2? Yes we are back to that action. CAR is allowing the 26th most rushing yards per game along with an awesome 4.9 yards per carry. He is our top ALGO play on the NFL cheatsheet this week for the position.
TRAVIS ETIENNE (7100)
Hopefully, the JAGS figured something out in London because they looked great. Etienne rushed 26 times for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns while grabbing 4 balls for another 48 yards as he was all over the field. The prior two weeks he had 20 and 19 rushing attempts so the volume is there. INDY is a solid rush defense but with his volume and work in the passing game he is a viable play across the board this weekend.
EMARI DEMERCADO (4900)
A popular waiver wire add this week and should see plenty of run against the Rams suspect defense. He came in last week after James Conner was injured and rushed 10 times for 45 yards and scored his first touchdown.
PAY UP: JA’MARR CHASE, COOPER KUPP, PUKA NACUA
These guys don’t need any explanation as they are studs and you are going to pay for their production. If you can afford them go ahead and smash them into your lineup. Now I want to dig in and focus on some low-mid priced players that you can use.
MIDDLE: DJ MOORE (6500)
His price tag hasn’t caught up to his recent production coming off an 8/230/3 game and 8/131/1 the game prior. He is the clear WR-1 and will be the favorite target for Fields. If you play Justin Fields you must have DJ Moore in your lineup!
MIDDLE: DEANDRE HOPKINS
I have been waiting all year for Hopkins to wake up and we finally saw it last week with his 8/140 game. He came out week 1 with 13 targets and then fizzled out before exploding last week. His price tag makes him worth a look.
SAVE MONEY: ADAM THIELEN (5900)
CAR can’t run and we know Miami is going to score a ton of points so that points to a bunch of passing attempts for the Panthers. Adam Thielen has been terrific putting up 11, 7 and 11 catches over the last 3 weeks for 107, 76 and 145 yards and scored a touchdown in 2 of those games. Almost a must own for me this week!
SAVE MONEY: JORDAN ADDISON (5700)
This one is easy as the pricing from DK was released prior to the Justin Jefferson IR news. Now we get a top 2 WR for a team that is passing at the highest clip in the NFL at a much lower price tag. Also, consider K.J. Osborn. If running multiple lineups this weekend I think Addison or Osborn should at least be in each one of them based on their production and pricing.
COMPLETE PUNT: JOSH DOWNS (4100)
Gardner Minshew loves this kid and he is priced near the bottom of the barrel so why not roll him out! He is coming off a 6/97 game and both of these teams are great rush defenses but not so good pass defenses.
LINEUP VAULT/TEAM STACKS:
DEFENSE VS. POSITION - WEEK 6
TARGET TRACKER PREVIEW - NFL WEEK 6
SPORTS BETTING PICKS OF THE WEEK:
SAN FRANCISCO (-5) OVER CLEVELAND
CUSTOM MODEL: SAN FRAN 24 VS. CLEVELAND 16
Watson not practicing today so assuming this line is going to start moving. 49’ers have been great and just crushed the Cowboys 42-10 holding them to only 10 points, 8 first downs, 57 rushing yards and a total of 197 yards while forcing 4 turnovers. CLE defense has been great (1st) but that offense ranks 26th putting up only 316 yards per game and now Watson is Q. The last game they got rolled by Baltimore 28-3. Lay the points!
MINNY/CHICAGO OVER 44.5
Huge EDGE play here with OVER as our model has this game projected at 50 total points and Vegas opened it at 44.5. We typically see Vegas move toward our model so grab this one if you want to follow! I also like the DK Prop of both teams to score X points as this one should be back and forth and neither "D" is in the top 18.
BUFFALO (-8.5) FIRST HALF LINE
This game jumps out as our model has this projected at 31-14 (-17) but with a Vegas spread of two touchdowns thats hardly a profitable play so I'm going after the first half line of (-8.5). Buffalo was exposed in London last week and now the return home to play one of the worst teams in the NFL so this is a perfect "hot start" bounce back spot for them. NYG rank 32nd on "O" putting up only 12.4 PPG and allowing 30.6. Buffalo suffered a bunch of injuries on "D" so if the NYG can score this game will fly over the total. I'm holding my breath that they were just "jet lagged" from the trip to London and got off to a slow start.
LAS VEGAS / NEW ENGLAND UNDER 41.5
I don't bet UNDERS but this is a game that does jump out as we have an edge of 6.5 points with our model projected a low 20-15 score. Both of these teams struggled to RUN the ball as they rank 26th and 32nd in rushing yards per game and both defenses have strong pass D that ranks 6th and 11th so can't imagine anything but a boring low scoring game with a bunch of punts and/or turnovers.
Here is a look at our NFL Scoreboard from last week and the TOTALS on the games went an amazing 10-4.
This tab breaks down all the games plus Vegas compared to our model to see if there is an EDGE.
I don't always agree with our model but it's a great place to start your research.
PLAYER PROPS & PRIZE PICKS:
PRO TIP: HOW I FIND MY PLAYER PROPS: There isn’t any magical formula that you can put together and believe me I have tried everything! You just have to research, dig into game logs and look at matchups! I do (2) main things: I go to the “PrizePicks” tab on the NFL CheatSheet and sort by the AVERAGE difference between what the player is averaging and what their line is and then I start digging from there making notes and writing down players. The SECOND thing I do is go to the MAIN TAB and it is also sorted by the highest ALGO players and then I just start going down the list and looking at their game logs vs. PrizePick or player prop lines to see what jumps out.
We have all the game logs on the “Game Logs” tab so I can see what a player has done per game, who they faced and see everything from carries, attempts, targets, rushes, touchdowns, receptions, yardages, INTs, etc. It makes building same game parlays a cake walk compared to opening up 5 different websites and constantly searching for game logs and player stats. And for less than 50 cents a day you can have access to all of these great tools! Sorry had to put my salesman ship in there.
ADAM THIELEN OVER 68.5 YARDS
13, 8, 14 and 9 targets over the last 4 weeks to go along with his 3 touchdowns and 107, 76, 145 and 54 yardages in those. CAR is projected to get slaughtered in this game and they can't run so expect another 10+ targets for Thielen while they are trying to play catch up in the second half!
JA'MARR CHASE OVER 85.5 YARDS
Chase is on FIRE right now and dropped a bomb last week with 15/192/3 line. CINCY is at HOME and they NEED A WIN. Expect a lot of Ja'Marr Chase this week!
STEFON DIGGS OVER 84.5 YARDS
We are still riding the cry baby train as he has now put up (3) games in a row OVER 100 yards going for 8/111, 6/120 and 8/121. NYG have no corners that can hang with Diggs and coming off a loss to the Jags they need to return HOME and lock down a big WIN!
COOPER KUPP OVER 87.5 YARDS
Didn't miss a beat coming back with 12 targets in his first game and putting up a solid 8 for 118 to lead the team in yardage. He's back! Arizona is 26th in passing yards allowed per game.
CHRISTIAN KIRK OVER 59.5 YARDS
PrizePicks still dropping these low lines on Jags wide outs so let's jump on this! Kirk has only put up 78, 84, 54 and 110 yards over the last 4 games and check the 8, 12, 6 and 14 targets!
TYREEK HILL OVER 91.5 YARDS
Hill wants to reach 2,000 yards and he is off to a good start with 181, 157 and 215 in 3 of his 5 games so far this year. I prefer him in a same game parlay where I can flex his yards as CAR has a pretty decent pass "D" but it's hard to contain Hill and he could eclipse this number with only 2-3 catches and he's already doubled this line twice this year!
SAME GAME PARLAY ACTION TO START THE WEEKEND!
Thank you for reading and good luck!