NFL Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL is has been very good to me this year. Last week in the article our picks went 4-1 winning with Titans (-3) yes I know that was a squeaker! Bears +1.5, Steelers -3.5 (they rolled as expected) and Washington under 44. We lost with BAL -9.5 as they had it in the bag and then gave up two late TDs. The cheatsheet games that were more than 2-3 points difference in algo where 5-2 on the week. Someone asked me if I bet my NFL games early in the week. YES! - if you have a line that is around a KEY NUMBER (those are 3, 4 and 7 then you want to be on the favorable side before it moves. For example: Last week I posted TEN -3 and loved it and then it moved to -3.5 and that almost ended up being the difference between a win and a loss.
NFL BEST BETS:
These are the best bets that I’ve put together using our NFL cheat sheets!
TAMPA BAY (-3) OVER LAS VEGAS:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Tampa Bay 30 vs. Las Vegas 25
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: Tampa Bay -5
NOTES: So this was the first game of the week that came across that I fell in love with. Tampa Bay only -3 over the Raiders? I have it at -2.5 on my book currently. Las Vegas beat the Chiefs and they looked good doing it. Now can they put together back to back good games? NO! Tampa is a different beast they have a solid defense ranking #1 in total “D” and #3 rush D and #1 pass D. They won’t get ate up on the Henry Ruggs long TD pass. They also rank 3rd in short pass defense and 10th in deep pass defense. Raiders should struggle in this matchup.
We just saw the Bucs destroy one of the top offenses in the NFL in the Packers. They shut down DeVante Adams and Aaron Jones. Josh Jacobs is no Aaron Jones and Darren Waller/Ruggs is not Adams. Tampa has the 7th best offense in the NFL and they can run (6th rushing offense) and pass (9th passing offense) and they are dropping a 29.5 points per game. The deciding factor for me here besides that Buc defense is the Raiders are 29th in total defense, 31st in rushing defense and 26th in passing defense. What can their game plan be against a team that can RUN or THROW? Lay the -2.5 or -3 as this should be an easy pick of the week!
BUFFALO (-12.5) OVER NYJETS:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Buffalo 28 vs. NYJ 17
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: Buffalo -10.5
NOTES: I don’t typically lay any double digit numbers in the NFL but the Jets are looking horrible and the Bills need a big bounce back win after a couple tough matchups. Last week facing Miami the Jets only had 13 first downs, 2 for 17 on 3rd downs, 263 total yards and had 7 penalties for 80 yards while scoring 0 points. They currently sit at 0-6 on the year and have only scored 0, 10, 28, 7, 13 and 17 points on the season. Other than the one good game where they hung 28 on Denver they average 9.5 points per game. This one could fall close to the spread but I doubt it. I LOVE this game on a specialty teaser and it was the first one I marked. Buffalo has the 4th best passing offense and facing the Jets an their 31st rated pass defense. Lay the points, put them on a teaser and even a money line parlay almost feels like a lock at this point.
PACKERS (-3 OR -3.5) OVER HOUSTON:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Packers 32 vs. Houston 25
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: Packers -7
NOTES: Our algo has the corrected spread on this game closer to Packers -7. Houston is a scary team because Watson is a mastermind and can get points quickly and stay in the game. Packers will be ready for a bounce back win after that game against the Bucs last week. Houston holds the 28th ranked defense (28th rushing and 20th passing) so Aaron Rodgers should get back on track and Aaron Jones should have a field day vs. that Houston D-Line. Packers only allowing 231 passing yards per game and Houston is throwing 63% of the time. Packers are too much and love that line at -3 if you can get it there.
DETROIT LIONS OVER ATLANTA FALCONS:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Detroit Lions 29 vs. Falcons 27
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: Detroit Lions -2
NOTES: I love the Falcons and have a huge Julio Jones fat head on my “man cave” wall. I don’t particularly like the Lions but this game is pointing to Detroit. Both offenses are solid sitting at 16th and 17th. Lions have the 30th rated rush defense and the Falcons hardly run the pass throwing at a 61% clip. Lions hold the 12th rated pass defense. Now ATL holds the 30th rated pass defense and can’t cover anyone. They are 30th vs. WR-1 and 21st vs. WR-2 and even 25th vs. TEs. I expect a high scoring game and like it parlayed with Detroit Lions money line. There is some risk here as ATL playing at home is typically much better and Julio Jones is back but if the Lions win it WILL GO OVER the total!
STEELERS OVER TITANS:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE ON CHEAT SHEET: Steelers 30 vs. Titans 26
ALGO PROJECTED LINE: Steelers -3.5 or -4
NOTES: Vegas line opened at Steelers -2.5 and has now moved to +1. These two teams hold the 8th and 6th rated offenses but PIT defense is sitting at 4th in the NFL with the #1 rush defense and 8th best passing defense. TEN can’t match anything close to that as they are 16th in rush defense and 24th in passing defense. Derrick Henry has been one of the worst RBs in the league for yards after contact and he won’t have any room to run against this PIT D. If this line was PIT -4 or higher I would stay away but less than a FG I like PIT and even +1 is now putting them on the board for a strong teaser. (If you put them on a 6.5 point teaser you can get PIT +7.5 which 7 is a crucial number for us.) I try to keep this article mainly on straight bets and picks so I do like Steelers here. I loved them last week against CLE and got a bunch of slack from Browns fans but that PIT D tore up those Brownies as expected. This game should be closer but I’ll take the points!
SPECIALTY TEASER PICKS:
These are games where you can pick 3 teams and tease the line 10 points. Here are some of the games I like for this week, pick your favorite 3.
Tampa Bay -3 teased to +7
Buffalo -12.5 teased to -2.5
Steelers +1 teased to +11
Packers -3.5 teased to +6.5
Atlanta / Detroit Total Points 55.5 teased to 45.5
Seattle / Arizona Total Points 56 teased to 46
Thanks for taking the time to read the article. We have been on a semi-hot streak as of late and looking forward to another solid week!
Haze