NFL Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
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STRAIGHT BETS FOR THE WEEK:
TITANS +5.5 OVER KANSAS CITY
We are projecting this to be a close game, the "Cheat Line" has it around 28-27.
TEN is 4-2 ATS and KC is 2-4 ATS.
Kansas City is giving up a wild 5.2 yards per carry and the Titans feature the best RB in the NFL in Derrick Henry so we gotta grab the points!
ATLANTA (-2.5) OVER MIAMI
I have not bet this game yet but it's one that I'm seriously considering.
"Cheat Line" has this around 25-19 with a projected line of Falcons -6.5.
NFL teams can select to have their "Bye" week after the London game if they choose and this year Miami chose not too. So they are coming off a game where they flew across the ocean and playing the following week. To make matters worse the Falcons are coming in rested off of a bye week.
Miami is allowing the 22nd most rushing yards per game and 29th most passing yards per game and 30th in overall yards allowed per game.
CAROLINA (-3) OVER NY GIANTS
Another game that I have not bet at this time but leaning on.
"Cheat Line" has this game around 27-21 or 27-22 with a projected line of around -5.5 so don't mind laying the 3 in this spot.
The "efficiency" differences in this game are huge as CAR comes in at a projected 13.7 YPP (yard per point) and NYG at 19.4 due to the CAR defense that has been ripped apart the last couple weeks. We have CAR with around 86 more yards and with a better efficiency so laying -3 is the right call.
NYG allowing the 29th most rushing yards per game and 22nd most passing yards per game.
INDY (+4 OR HIGHER) OVER SAN FRAN
"Cheat Line" has this game around 26-24 so we have to grab the points in this spot. I like +4 but if you can get +4.5 or +5 that is much better.
We have this projected with San Fran taking a 35-40 yard edge but INDY has the much better projected efficiency at 14.9 vs. 17.7.
One of the models has INDY winning a tight game 23-21.
TEASER TIME - 3 TEAM 10 POINT TEASER:
[PICK YOUR FAVORITE 3 PLAYS]
LA RAMS (-15 DOWN TO -5) > DETROIT
TAMPA BAY (-12.5 DOWN TO -2.5) > CHICAGO
TITANS (+5.5 UP TO +15.5) > CHIEFS
CHIEFS/TITANS TOTAL POINTS (57.5 DOWN TO 47.5)
ARIZONA (-18.5 DOWN TO -8.5) > HOUSTON
TEASER - 6 POINTS w/ 2 TEAMS:
TITANS +11.5 & OVER 51.5
These two teams don't play any defense as they rank 28th and 31st in total defense. Both offenses come in with solid projected YPP numbers of 13.6 and 13.1. We are projecting this game with 176 yards over league average numbers. That means we are looking at 850-900 yards of offense. A simple nerd calc for you is 850 total yards with an average YPP of 13.5 is 62.9 total points.
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