Search

Packers vs. Eagles Showdown Analysis from CheatSheetPros!


NFL Thursday Night Showdown from CheatSheetPros!

QUICK NEWS & NOTES:

We are testing out the servers for our NFL Optimizer this weekend so please feel free to check it out at www.CheatSheetPros.com/nflopto! You can lock/exclude players, generate lineups with a global exposure and even export lineups directly into excel at the click of a button! Play with it for FREE! (If the server crashes and you get an error sit tight as I’m checking it every couple hours!)


First we are going to look at the big picture of overall DEFENSIVE RANKS for the teams.

We can see that Green Bay is 4th hardest vs. QBs, 2nd hardest vs. WRs, 4th hardest vs. TEs and then 29th vs. RBs. Eagles are solid vs. RB and TEs but they struggle vs. QBs and WRs. Right now we are looking to target Eagle RBs and Packers QB/WRs.


Here is the screen shot from our STACKS sheet that gives us a quick breakdown of the game. Our ALGO (remember it is early in the year) has this game at 24-17 with the Packers winning and total going under 47. Vegas line has moved from Packers -2.5 to -4. This means the betting public thinks this will be a low scoring game with the Packers winning and covering the spread.


SPECIFIC PLAYERS:

DeVante Adams plays on the outside almost 80% of the time. He holds a solid 69% catch rate, 0.48 fantasy points per route and targeted on 24% of his routes. Ronald Darby is the CB from Philly that he will most likely run into. WRs are targeted 24% of the time in his coverage, he is allowing 0.38 fantasy points per route and gives up a 61% catch rate. This is a big advantage to Aaron Rodgers and Adams.


Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS from now on) will line up all over but 41% of the time as the slot WR. Now he is only targets on 15% of his routes run (compared to almost 25% from Adams) but his are usually much larger plays down the field. He has a 0.25 fantasy points per route run and 59% catch rate. Sidney Jones and Avonte Maddox both cover the slot WR around 50% of the time. They are allowing a 50% and 62% catch rate and 0.29 and 0.25 fantasy points per route.


Nelson Agholor is the primary slot WR and that is where he runs 61% of his routes. Tramon Williams is the primary slot cover CB and covers the slot WR 49% of the time (which is higher than the 23% and 8% the other two CBs cover the slot). He is only targeted on 14% of the routes run in his coverage (which is really low) and gives him 0.26 fantasy points per route which is the lowest of the 3 GB corners.


Alshon Jeffrey isn't 100% but appears to be playing tonight. He lives up 80% of the time on the L or R side and has a 73% catch rate with a nice 0.39 fantasy points per route run. He will be covered by either of the two outside CBs Jaire Alexander or Kevin King. Alexander is graded as the best CB but allows a 60% catch rate and .39 fantasy points per route. Kevin King is graded as the middle tier CB but only allows a 52% catch rate but much higher .40 fantasy points per route run.


Whiteside lines up on the outside 90% of the time and will be covered by the other CB. He has a low 33% catch rate with .04 fantasy points per route run and only a 7% target rate on his routes run.


Jake Kumerow is only $200 in the showdown so if he catches 1 ball for 10 yards that is 10x value! There is always some wrinkle and if you need a punt to load up elsewhere then look at Kumerow.


Mercedes Lewis is the #2 TE (mainly for blocking) in Green Bay but did get 2 targets last week and 3 targets in week 1. Priced at only $600 another punt option for DFS.


Mack Hollins is only $2400 on DK and has 15 targets through his last two weeks and caught 9 of them for 112 yards. Putting up 10 and 10.2 DK points for 4x value each week.


Kickers - They are good for 2x as a floor and 3x on the highend if it's going to be a low scoring defensive game but please don't put them in your captain spot! At least not tonight!


Jamaal Williams only $5,000 and has rushed 9 and 12 times that last two weeks with 6 total targets. Should be good for 2x tonight with 3x ceiling. He has put up 10.6 and 13.1 Dk points last two weeks.


Aaron Rodgers - Love him tonight but has yet to reach 2x value on his price point tongiht due to the shitty coaching. This looks like the Titans offense from last year - get a lead and then run - my word let Aaron Rodgers air it out like Mahomes!


Carson Wentz - Priced at a cool $10k he has put up 21.6, 19.5 and 28 DK points giving up 2x-3x value. Facing a tough defense game script should be in his favor.


Miles Sanders - Sneaky play tonight if he can get into the endzone!


LINEUPS FOR TONIGHT:

Captain: MVS (hope for that big play down the field!)

FLEX: Aaron Rodgers

FLEX: DeVante Adams

FLEX: Mason Crosby

FLEX: Carson Wentz

FLEX: Mack Collins


Captain: Wentz

FLEX: Aaron Rodgers

FLEX: DeVante Adams

FLEX: Mason Crosby

FLEX: Aaron Jones

FLEX: Mercedes Lewis


Captain: DeVante Adams

FLEX: Aaron Rodgers

FLEX: Carson Wentz

FLEX: Mason Crosby

FLEX: Miles Sanders

FLEX: Mack Hollins


FREE PREMIUM SHEET THURSDAYS! (Free group here and you get some premium member benefits just by being in the group!) {Remember we post our Premium Cheatsheets for FREE on Thursdays in our Facebook group: http://www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/}


Thank you for reading and good luck!

Haze

DAILY FANTASY SPORTS - CHEATSHEETS - ANALYTICS - VALUE PLAYS - MATCHUP BREAKDOWNS - ARTICLES - EXCEL OPTIMIZERS - PREMIUM FACEBOOK CHAT

  • Facebook Social Icon
  • Twitter Social Icon