PGA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last week Daniel Berger was the TOP GPP ALGO play on our PGA CheatSheet and took it down!
PGA article will reference finishes at the “current tournament” that does not always mean it is the same “course”. We are breaking down the course and giving you some picks that we like on our first review of the weekly PGA tournament.
Riviera CC will play at a Par 71 and a little over 7,300 yards so this is a long course and driving distance will come into play. There are 3 Par 5s and two of them are 572 and 589 yards. The 3 Par 5s make up massive birdie rates of 59.6% for the Par 5: 511 and then 35% and 29% for the two long Par 5s. The hardest 3 holes are two long P4s that are 481 and 493 yards and both have a 28%+ bogey rate. The other is the P3 229 that has a 26.1% bogey rate and a 66.2% par rate.
Proximity always comes into play when I am building lineups. On this course the 150-175 and 175-200 are the main approach shots I want to focus on as they make up around 60% of the total proximity shots.
GREEN TYPE: POA
Average Strokes Gained at Riviera CC with rounds played.
Dustin Johnson 2.64 (40 rounds)
Rory McIlroy +2.26 (16 rounds)
Adam Scott +2.16 (30 rounds)
Xander Sch +2.04 (12 rounds)
Steve Stricker +1.92 (16 rounds)
S. Noh +1.92 (16 rounds)
Hideki Mats +1.85 (22 rounds)
Bubba Watson +1.83 (32 rounds)
Carlos Ortiz +1.74 (16 rounds)
Genesis Invitational Past Winners:
2020: Adam Scott -11 2019: JB Holmes -14 2018: Bubba Watson -12 2017: Dustin Johnson -17 2016: Bubba Watson -16 2015: James Hahn -6 2014: Bubba Watson -15
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
XANDER SCHAUFFELE – Starting with our top GPP ALGO play on the PGA cheatsheet because last week it was Daniel Berger and he WON the tourney! This week Xander the top play on the GPP Algo rating system. So far this year he is 7 for 7 in cuts made, average finish of 7th. He also ranks solid across the board in the P3 / P4 / P5 scoring over the last 36 rounds at 11th / 3rd / 2nd. He has 3 straight events of 100+ DKPs and priced at only 9900 on DK! He has finished top 25 here the last 3 years and his last 3 events played he finished 2nd, 2nd and 5th.
TONY FINAU – Slightly cheaper he comes in at 9300 on DK and has recent events of 87, 86, 107 and 97 DKPs. He also has 3 straight cuts here with a high finish of 2nd place 3 years ago. Finau meets the driving distance target as he ranks 11th over L36 rounds, 13th in proximity of 150-175 and 20th in P5 scoring. He also sits at 9th in P4 scoring which makes up the majority of holes on this course. Solid target near the top.
VIKTOR HOVLAND – Has not played here before but ranks inside my top 10-12 golfers. He is priced at 8700 and can give you 90+ DKPs. He has 91.5, 70 and 94 DKPs over his last 3 events. What really jumps out is his iron play. On my PGA cheatsheets I break out the total proximity ranking and then 100-125, 125-150, 150-175, 175-200, 200+, etc. Typically, I’m looking for any discrepancies in shorter or longer ranges but he is solid across the board ranking 14th in total proximity and then 4th, 21st, 24th and 8th.
SAM BURNS – I always play this guy and can’t really tell you why. He is a cheap bomber who can light up the score board. He is only 7400 on DK this week (9100 on Fanduel) and he has made 7/9 cuts, ranks 30th in driving distance at 312.7 yards per drive and is a solid P4 and P5 scorer. Over the L36 rounds he is 7th in OTT, 32nd in APP, 19th in PUTT, 10th in driving distance, 15th in total proximity, 19th in P4 scoring and 13th in P5 scoring. He is a little up and down but that is great for GPPs. He has 70, 92, 36, 107, 75 and 86 DKPs over his recent starts. At this course he took 23rd last year and a MC the year prior. Having someone in the mid 7Ks that can hit 100 DKPs is HUGE VALUE.
CARLOS ORTIZ – I am seeing his name pop up all over the industry this week. He is 7800 on DK and 9700 on FD and has made 9/11 cuts this year. Over his L36 rounds he is 14th in DK points, 22nd in OTT, 24th ATG, 23rd in PUTT, 33rd in driving distance and he excels I the longer proximities where he ranks 6th in 200+. He is 8th in P5 scoring. He has 3 events played in the last 10 that I grab for my sheet and he has put up 83.5, 90.5 and 77 DKPs. At this specific course he has done really well finishing 26th, 9th and 26th. Another good value play.
These guys have 5 straight cuts here with solid finishes.
CHARLES HOWELL – 5 straight cuts with two top 15s.
ADAM HADWIN – 5 straight cuts with three top 25s.
ADAM SCOTT – 5 straight cuts with 4 top 11 finishes including a win last year and a 2nd place finish 5 years ago.
MATT KUCHER – 2nd place last year, also 5 straight cuts and no finish worse than 28th in 5 years.
DUSTIN JOHNSON – 5 straight cuts and look at these amazing places – 10th, 9th, 16th, 1st and 4th. Woah!
SUNG KANG – 5 straight cuts with two top 8s and 4 inside the top 22.
OTHER GUYS TO TARGET:
MARTIN LAIRD – His last 3 played events he is over 100+ DKPs with a high of 135. He also has three different top 11 finishes here.
CAMERON TRINGALE – In 4 of his last 6 events he has 98+ DKPs, finished 30th here last year and has an average return of 12.8x his current salary. His price is 7600 on DK and 9300 on FD and projected to be on the lower owned side of things.
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Thanks for reading,