MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
GOLFERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:
Webb Simpson (11,200) – He is the expensive chalk this week so I won’t spend a ton of time talking about him. He is only 9:1 odds to win, 5th in DK points. In this event he has finished 2nd, 3rd, 72nd, 6th and 5th. No value here with the high ownership and only scoring 66.9 DK points per contest puts him down a 6.0 value. He does have 7 straight top 30 finishes but use with caution!
Hideki Matsuyama (10,900) – This is the first week that I’ve seen a golfer come up as #1 in our custom model AND top on the key stats ranking. His stats are great ranked 8th in Par 5 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 9th in Approach 150-175 yards, 5th in total proximity, 1st in Opp. Gained and 3rd in DK points. Other than the rough showing at The Open he has 4 solid finishes of 7, 13, 21st and 6th and put up 102, 95, 82 and 107 DK points in those.
Jason Kokrak (8000) – Value golfer here and a solid pick to win at 70:1 odds. He comes in as #3 in our custom model and sitting on a solid 8.5x value this year with a 68.3 DK PPG average. Also coming up #2 in the key rankings. Pat Mayo said this course has players finishing that are correlating to the RBC and Kokrak took 16th at the RBC this year. He has put up 61 and 95 DK points I his last two starts finishing 32nd and 29th.
Vaughn Taylor (7400) – Another value play here with value Vaughn who is 4th in our custom model rankings and 90:1 odds to win he also pops up at 5th in our key rank averages. He is 17th in DK points. Not counting last week because my data pull wasn’t ready yet he has put up 111.5, 70 and 105.5 DK in the 3 prior events and he is dirt cheap this week! He has finished 6th, 46th and 4th in his last 3 starts.
CUSTOM MODEL RANKINGS TOP 7 PLAYERS:
1ST – Hideki Matsuyama
2nd – Paul Casey
3rd – Jason Kokrak
4th – Vaughn Taylor
5th – Byeong-Hun An
6th – Collin Morikawa
7th – Webb Simpson
BETS TO WIN:
Here I’m not looking for some stupid 10:1 or better I want to get a solid payday or at least a sweat going into the last day that I can cover. For example, if you bet Jason Kokrak at 70:1 for $10 and he is in the top 5 you are looking at a possible $700 payday, so you can sprinkle out that possible winnings and cover the other 4 golfers that are in the running. You can’t really cover a $10 bet at 9:1 odds because $90 doesn’t give you enough to be profitable covering 4 other golfers.
Hideki Matsuyama 14:1 – I don’t like the odds but he has been on fire so if you are only going to be 1-2 golfers I’d roll with Hideki as he should be there going into day 4.
Jason Kokrak 70:1 – Stats line up and the odds are nice!
Vaughn Taylor 90:1 – Stats line up and the odds are nice!
Viktor Hovland 28:1 – He is getting a lot of hype this week about getting his first win. He is going to be a stellar golfer for years to come and I want a piece when he takes his first “W”!
Joaquin Nieman 50:1 – Odds are just too good to pass up!
Roger Sloan 125:1 – Honestly, no idea who this guy is. I saw Pat Mayo or someone in that circle talking him up and talking about his recent rankings and how they fit the course really well. If you are betting a few golfers you can put some pizza money on him at 125:1. Heck even a $4 bet would pay you $500!
Honorable Mentions: Glover 50:1, Scott Piercy 50:1, Byeong An 50:1 and Knox 80:1.
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze