PGA Showdown Plays (Round 3) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Yesterday we posted a quick article on our R2 plays and we went with Webb (-4), Day (-3) and Hatton (-1) and then Ancer who went off the rails at (+5). Koepka was putting lights out in R1 and shot the -8 so we had him coming back to earth and he ended up at +1 for R2. I also swung and missed on Fitzpatrick. He was a fade for me after posting -4.37 T2G in R1 and -2.90 on APP. He came back with a beautiful round 2 shooting a day high (-6) and was +3.34 T2G and +1.27 APP. Credit is due when someone goes from one end of the spectrum to the other. So good turn around Fitz I was wrong! Let’s take a look at some R3 plays!
CRITERIA WE ARE FOCUSING ON:
Most of these players are going to have a “Scott Score” over 2.0 for the tournament and I’m focusing on people who are not putting lights out. Possibly someone who is struggling with the putter but statistically a good putter overall. Also people who are solid in APP and T2G that might not be putting it together thus far into the tourney.
CHEZ REAVIE – A popular pre-tourney pick that has crushed R1 and R2 shooting a -4 and -3. He has been crushing the T2G and APP on this course and he is still -0.79 strokes with he putter. He ranks 49th in putting so I’m not worried about that, if he got hot with the putter he could put up a monster score. Priced at only 7500 he is definitely in the player pool for me. Only 2 players are over +4.0 strokes gained T2G and they are Chez and Koepka.
JUSTIN THOMAS – Thomas is expensive at 10,700 but I don’t mind him if you have the free salary. He shot -4 and then par and he is -1.44 with the putter and ranks 32nd so that will surely turn around and he will make a small climb up the leaderboard. He ranks 7th in APP and 4th in T2G over the last 24 rounds and he is consistent as he ranks in the top 5 in those categories here.
RICKIE FOWLER – Loved some Rickie coming into the week and he is doing well. He has shot -6 and -3 giving us some consistent production. He is sitting at a very fair 8000 on DK going into R3. He is +1.01 on the APP and +2.83 T2G for the tourney.
JASON DAY – Another pre tourney guy that I was high on. He has not disappointed putting up a -2 and -3. I like to see the players I’m targeting in the green both days or at least have a massive ceiling if they get hot. Day is -0.40 with the putter and still shooting solid scores. He is +1.57 strokes in T2G for the tournament. He ranks 20th in T2G for the last 24 rounds so that is expected. If he can get hot with the putter he could go lower than the -3 he gave us today.
MATTHEW FITZPATRICK – Going from a fade yesterday to a possible play today! The huge turn around from -4.37 SG T2G in round 1 to +3.34 in R2 shooting a day low -6 that was tied with Kevin Na. Priced at 8400 he gives us good mid-range upside but carries a lot of risk as we saw how poorly he shot in R1.
FADES FOR ME:
PAUL CASEY – Sitting at +9 after shooting +8 today he is -2.05 strokes per round with the putter and -2.60 per round T2G. He has no motivation or reason to continue to put out a solid performance this far out of contention. He will likely be looking toward next week.
JON RAHM – Same reason as above, after shooting +4 he will be looking ahead and likely won’t give his best performance. He can light it up anytime he wants to I just don’t see him motivated here to put on a GPP winning round. He is -1.08 strokes per round in ball striking and -1.95 in T2G. Pass on him for Round 3 and let him get ready for next week and we will re-evaluate at that time.
Thanks for reading,