MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
RECAP from last night: If you were paying up for pitching we said Berrios would be the guy and he was the highest scoring pitcher last night over Giolito and others. We had LeBlanc as a value play and he ended up as the #3 scoring pitcher on the slate. We gave our stacks and 3 of 4 were solid. Seattle scored 10 runs, LAA scored 8 runs and our under-the-radar stack was Baltimore who scored a whopping 10 runs when they were only projected at 4.1. We missed on Oakland who scored 3. Let’s look at tonight!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
Jose Urquidy (5000) – Coming off a 34.5 DK point start going 7.0 innings with only 1 ER and 9 Ks. Has to be on consideration as he is dirt cheap!
Asher Wojciechowski (7100) – Coming off a 38 DK point start that was almost 7x value (against Boston!) going 7.1 with 0 ER and 10 Ks. Have to give him a shot. He has 5 starts this year and all of them gave been positive so he is at least giving you a floor with big upside.
Zach Plesac (7300) – He isn’t great but just faced Kc and went 6.0 / 2 ER / 6Ks for 22 DK points so that is 3x.
Jake Junis (8500) – Junis just faced CLE and put up 28.5 DK points going 6.0 / 0 ER and 7 Ks. The start before that he put up 33.5 DK points vs. CHW and then 19.55 @ WAS. 3 solid starts in a row and he is on my board.
Thoughts on the $10k+ guys (RYU / Lynn / Greinke) – RYU has a ceiling of around 30 DK points which isn’t 3x value. I don’t mind for a cash game floor but GPP upside isn’t there. His last 3 road starts not counting Colorado he put up 18, 19 and 22 DK points. Lynn has been awesome! He prefer him over RYU. Lynn has a 37 and 39.6 DK point start both in his last 5. He also has 10+ strikeouts in 3 of his last 5 starts and he has faced some tough matchups (@HOU, ARI, HOU, LAA, @TB). Higher upside with Lynn. Greinke gets to face a horrible MIA team and has a solid floor. His last 4 starts have been 25.5, 10, 35 and 28 DK points. I prefer Lynn > Greinke > RYU (ownership and ceiling reasons).
OTHER PITCHER SIDE NOTES:
Jake Arrieta (6500) – Has great BVP vs. ATL as they are only hitting .180 off him through 61 Abs with a 28% K rate. Arrieta has an anemic swinging strike rate at 7.9%. Buyer beware but GPP I could justify a share or two.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
MIN vs. Dylan Cease – He has given up 4 ER in both of his starts and has a 6.19 ERA / 1.50 whip and allowing a decent .242 average. MIN scoring 7.3 runs per game over the last 7 days and hitting .291 as a team. After Cease comes out of the game you get the 27th ranked bullpen. You can 5 man stack this between 4220 – 4720 per player. Priced well with an over/under of 10.0 runs.
NYY & Boston Thoughts – These teams are putting up fireworks every time they meet. NYY are hitting .353 off Cashner through 119 Abs. Boston is the cheaper stack as you can get as low as 4,000 per player or as high as 4880 for 5 man stacks. NYY are nose bleed pricing and you can go from 4900-5320 per player. Runs per game last 7 days: NYY 8.0 hitting .323 and Boston 7.7 hitting .291. Last 10 game power rankings: NYY 10th and Boston 8th. NYY has a wRC+ on the road of 145.6 and Boston a 132.4 at home. Paxton has only broke the 20 point mark once in his last 5 starts so I’m not too excited about him.
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