MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
SONNY GRAY (9100) – Probably my favorite pitcher on the slate that doesn’t have much appeal to it. He is coming off 27 and 25 DK point starts going 13.0 innings with 14 strikeouts and 0 ER across those two. 7 of his last 8 starts he has at least 21 Dk points giving him a good floor. Sitting with a home ERA of 3.39 and a 1.12 whip he is the best option on the slate. He also allows a low .211 overall batting average to opponent hitters. He is allowing a .192 average to LHH and .227 to RHH so solid on both sides. Solid 11.8% swinging strike rate. STL is coming off 4 wins but they were playing Kansas City so it’s not like they are good wins! Gray to save the day!
JULIO TEHERAN (8600) – I prefer Gray but if you are in a pinch then Julio is worth a GPP look. Coming off 28 Dk points and putting up 20+ DK points in 3 of last 4 he is worth a look. NYM have seen him 125 times and only hitting .216 off him. Rosario is only 3 for 20, Conforto is 7 for 29, Ramos 5 for 22, Frazier 3 for 23 and Lagares is 4 for 21. On a weak slate he is worth a look. Holding a 2.52 ERA at home makes you perk up but seeing his 4.68 xFIP tells me that he has been lucky and pitching over his head. He is allowing a .219 average to LHH and .225 to RHH and .225 at home. So solid consideration for GPP.
AARON SANCHEZ (7700) – He has 3 starts in a row 21+ DK points. Since he came over to HOU he has been a different pitcher. His stats are not good but his BVP vs. HOU is decent as they are only hitting .267 off him through 45 Abs. I’m riding his recent success!
OTHER OPTIONS: Not many pivot options tonight. Up top you have Darvish who has looked great but doesn’t give you much ceiling priced at 9700 but I will likely have him in my player pool if I have stack money left over. Fiers has been solid but he is facing my favorite team in HOU plus his great recent games were against CWS, STL and TEX who are all terrible teams. He was decent vs. HOU last time he faced them going 7.2 with only 2 ER but only 3 Ks but I’m going to pass at 9500. Pineda coming off the DL I’m not interested in his first start back. No solid punt options tonight as everyone is very sketchy so I’d recommend going Darvish/Gray/Teheran/Sanchez combos. Gray/Sanchez is my favorite right now I’m leaning on.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
HOUSTON vs. Fiers – Ok let’s just start here! Projected at 5.2 runs and only a -120 favorite the Astros are fairly priced at 4840 per hitter for a 5 man stack for the highest priced 5 guys and you can get that all the down to 4400’s and still feel good. They are scoring 8.2 runs per game and hitting .317 over the last week and #2 in our L10 power rankings. They slid out of #1 after a couple rough games. My favorite hitters here are Altuve who is .364 4 for 11 off Fiers, Brantly .357 who is 10 for 28 and Yordan who is on fire right now scoring 18.3 FPPG over the last week and 15.7 FPPG over the last two weeks with a massive ceiling of 54 DK points! Also like Correa and Yuli at only 4300 and 4400 to fit in there. Springer is 1 for 8 and hitting lead off so you lose a lot of RBI opportunities solooking at a 5 man stack between 2-7 hitters. Fiers has a solid 2.54 ERA at home and that is what people see. However his xFIP is 5.50 at home which means he is pitching over his head. He has a fucking horrible 5.5 K9 ratio at home and Houston is the team that could bring him back to reality and they are cheap!
NYY vs. Plutko – The always red hot NYY are projected at 5.7 runs tonight, scoring 6.5 over the last week and hitting .275 as a team. Plutko is good but not great. His home ERA is 4.15 but his ROAD ERA is another story at 5.47 and xFIP on the road is even higher at 5.66. His wOBA on the road his 75 points higher, his whip jumps from 0.92 to 1.59 and batting average allowed goes from .218 to .327! Yikes!
CINCY vs. Wacha-Wacha – Wacha is coming off 3.2 innings and giving up 6 ER vs. LAD for -3 DK points. He faced Cincy on July 19th and only tossed 1.2 innings giving up 3 hits with only 1 K. Swinging strike rate is low at 9.9%, K9 rate on the road is only 7.0. He has a road ERA of 5.56, whip of 1.64 and allowing a .294 batting average. He hasn’t been great but slightly worse vs. RHH allowing a .330 batting average to them across 54.0 innings. CIN is loaded with RHH. This Aristides Aquino kid is fucking ridiculous. He has a .599 wOBA vs. RHP with a wRC+ of 276! He is on a 17.7 FPPG average over the last week and 14.4 over the last two weeks with a 44 DK points ceiling in the last two weeks. CIN is also hitting a solid .284 off Wacha through 102 team Abs.
Chicago Cubbies vs. Smyly – Stack #4 coming at us for this small main slate on a Thursday night. Cubbies have not been great with a 4.0 run per game average while hitting .243 over the last week. They only rank 18th in our L10 game power rankings. If you leave out Javier Baez who has been semi-cold you can do a 5 man stack for around 4480 and even get it down to 4240 per hitter which is really cheap! Cubs have been awful on the road this year as their record is only 23-36 compared to 41-19 at home. Their wRC+ drops from 127.9 at home down to 84.6 on the road. However they are in the hunt and need to win games on the road! So Cubs suck on the road so we are taking his as the pitcher is going to suck more than the Cubbies. Smyly is allowing a .323 average to LHH and .265 to RHH. He has a 6.96 ERA with a 1.62 whip and allowing a .284 average overall. The guys who hit LHP well are Castellanos, Bryant and Baez. GPP only as I don’t have any confidence in them.
HONORABLE MENTION STACK - MINNY
FREE GPP Lineup – I noticed in our Facebook Premium Chatroom that some people were buying lineups. DON’T! That is just stilly! We can give you a core of players and help you build your own lineups. If that lineup does win a GPP how many other people do you think will have the same line? Plenty. Those guys are scammers taking your money! Here is a random GPP lineup I’m looking at tonight:
Pitching: Sonny Gray / Aaron Sanchez
C – Maldanado
1B – CJ Cron
2B – Altuve
3B – Fletcher
SS – Correa
OF – Yordan Alvarez / Aquino / Brantley
(*Lineups are not confirmed and this is only the projected starting lineup!)
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Haze