MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
JUSTIN VERLANDER (12000) – Top option tonight with the most consistent numbers putting up 30+ DK points in 6 of last 7 starts, good for 2.5x value which is great for cash. Look at his recent strikeout totals 11, 11, 11, 10, 13 and 11 – WOW! 17.5% swinging strike rate with a 2.59 home ERA, 0.85 whip and allowing a micro-low .177 batting average with the #1 bullpen behind him! Heck yes!
LUCAS GIOLITO (11500) – Originally I saw this price tag and laughed. Coming off 52 DK points going 9.0 innings, 0 ER and 12 strikeouts vs. the same team he is facing tonight I quickly changed my mind and decided to use him for GPP. He has 3 starts and went 52, 30 and 32 DK points and went 21.0 innings, 4 total ER and 36 strikeouts! Risk-Reward as he has a recent higher ceiling but much lower floor with a 6 DK point game vs. MIN earlier this year. 15.8% swinging strike rate and allowing a .204 batting average. BVP is good with MIN only hitting .232 off him through 99 Abs.
ADAM PLUTKO (6500) – Looking down at some cheap pitcher to pair with the studs that will give you a solid floor. Plutko is coming off 17, 13, 6 and 18 DK point starts. He has been a consistent 2x-3x value. Dream matchup vs. a DET team hitting .210 over the last week and only scoring 3.5 runs per game. However he also has a worse split with a batting average allowed jumping from .218 up to .314 on the road.
YUSEI KIKUCHI (6200) – Get on the roller coaster! Coming off am amazing 44 DK point start he went a full game shutout with 8 Ks. Prior to that he put up a -2.5 DK point start getting lifted after giving up 5 ER in only 3.1. ULTIMATE GPP risk/reward play at $6.2k. Coming off a 7x value start we have to give him a shot. Don’t buy that QT drink tonight and put a $1-3 line with a Kuchi line!
ADRIAN HOUSER (5000) – 21, 18 and 33 DK points at only $5k? Yes the matchup is tough vs. a hot STL team but 10-15 points will get you 2x-3x value. In his last 5 starts he has 28.1 innings and only allowed more than 1 ER one time and that was a 4 ER game, he also has 25 strikeouts across that span. So STL is red hot right now hitting .306 over the last week and scoring 7.9 runs per game. Houser has a good home split with an ERA at home of only 3.00 with a 1.13 whip and allowing a .202 batting average. I think his ownership will be down since he is facing those hot Cards!
STEVEN BRAULT (4800) – Same as above 13, 28, 4 and 18 DK point starts and dirt cheap. Has only allowed more than 2 ER one time in his last 6 starts. Matchup is slightly tought vs. PHI who is scoring 6.0 runs per game and hitting .242 over the last week. Brault has a worse split on the road with a whip jumping from 1.22 to 1.62 and batting average allowed goes from .210 to .286.
MIKE MONTGOMERY (4000) – $4,000? OMG, Really? I know Oakland just rolled up KC last night but I’m willing to gamble here. Fuck 2x value is only 8 points! He pitches better at home too. Recent 4 starts were 0, 19, 41 and 16 DK points. He has a road ERA of 7.16 and a home ERA of only 2.20 but don’t get excited his xFIP at home is 4.15. Still an xFIP of around 4 and allowing a .264 average who tosses better at home for less than some of the hitters out there, I’ll take a shot. He is good vs. RHH allowing a lower .244 average but LHH are killing him as he has a 6.39 ERA – 2.53 whip - .484 batting average vs. LHH. Oak looks like only 2-3 in the lineup tonight so there is hope!
PITCHERS I AM AVOIDING TONIGHT:
PATRICK CORBIN (11200) – Don’t get me wrong he is solid but he hasn’t seen a 30 DK point start since July 7th and I need more than 2x value. I’d rather pay up to $12 for Verlander for cash.
WALKER BUEHLER (11000) – Love me some Bue when he is at home but on the road I can look elsewhere. He is priced up so I’m a fade on him tonight. His recent HOME starts were 29, 25, 52, 39 DK points, but his recent ROAD starts were 5 (vs. a terrible MIA team), 8.8 vs. WASH, 19 vs. PHI and -2 @ COL. Home ERA is a solid 2.33 but on the road it jumps to 4.37. Batting average allowed also jumps from .196 at home up to .254 on the road. Not terrible but for this price tag you are better to gamble elsewhere. If you are considering using him the plus is that SDP have a 27.7% strikeout rate vs. RHP over the last 5 weeks.
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