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NBA Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!

RECAP: Last night was a zig when the industry zagged. Our top GPP algo plays were decent but not mind blowing. We had Butler as our #1 who went for 6.6x value, Klay/Curry ended up at 5.8 and 5.9x value the next two were over 5x and then D’Angelo Russell who went for 10.4x. He was on my own cheatsheet and I had 0 shares. Boooh me! Average value plays are where I consider the industry to lie most of the time – Top average value was Mirotic who blew up for 7x value but the next 5 were way under 5x so I’m assuming most touts and projection services had rough nights and the people who pivoted had great nights.


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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS!


Brook Lopez - $5,400

Reason we like: He has been on fire recently and playing an average of 32 minutes per game over his last 6 and should do the same tonight. Vegas has this with an implied team total of 115.25 points and as you will see below CLE is giving up 58.6 DK points to the C position over the last two weeks and that is a massive 24.8% of the total points they are allowing. His 6 game average is 7x his current salary.

Last 10 game ceiling: 10.8x <Smashing our goal of 7.0x we are looking for!>

Recent Form: Awesome! Averaging a whopping 35 points per game over his last 6 and 44 over his last two.

Classification on NBA Premium Sheet: Diamond Play


Elfrid Payton - $8,000

Reason we like: Nosebleed pricing but is anyone not playing him right now? He is averaging between 52-58 DK points per game over his last 6, last 4 and last 2 games. That is easily over 6x per game and pushing 7x value.

Last 10 game ceiling: 7.7x

Recent Form: Awesome! Averaging over 52 DK points per game over his last 6 game average.

Classification on NBA Premium Sheet: GPP Dart with a good ceiling.


Pat Connaughton - $3,600

Reason we like: He is coming off a solid game where he smashed value and projected to see another 29 minutes tonight. 6.6x value over his last 4 game average. Easily a solid punt play!

Last 10 game ceiling: 8.2x

Recent Form: 5.7x value over his last 6 games and 6.6x over his last 4 games.

Classification on NBA Premium Sheet: Projected MIN bump


OTHER NOTABLE PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:


- Collin Sexton/Cedi Osman: These two are playing massive minutes and taking a massive amount of shots per game. Sexton is over 6.2x value over his last 6 games and Cedi is over 5.9x value over his last 4 games. Over the last 12 days Sexton has taken 16, 17, 16, 20, 18 and 17 FG attempts. Cedi has attempted 14, 16, 8, 19 and 16 FG attempts. I prefer Sexton for $100 more but both are viable GPP plays.


- Vucevic: He is priced up at $9,500 on DK but NOR is getting killed by C’s giving up 57.8 DK points oer the last two weeks and that is just shy of 23% of the total points they are allowing. Solid floor for cash games and has a little bit of a ceiling for GPPs.


- Mike Conley & Paul George: Both have a last 10 game ceiling below the 7.0x value that I’m looking for to use in GPPs but both of these guys have good home splits. Comparing the last 6 home games vs. the last 6 road games Conley is playing more minutes and scoring 16 more fantasy points at home than on the road. Paul George is playing only 4 more minutes at home but scoring 13.05 more fantasy points than on the road. Both are in consideration.


STAT MONSTER SECTION:


DVP MATCHUPS: <Using DVP DK points allowed over the last two weeks and players to consider who play the majority of their time at that position.>

CENTERS:

1. CLE facing MIL who is giving up 61.4 DK points. <Zizic projected for 29 min>

2. HOU facing MEM who is giving up 59.1 DK points. <Capela projected for 33 min>

3. MIL facing CLE who is also giving up a whopping 58.6 DK points. <Brook LOPEZ!>

4. WAS facing CHI who is giving up 58.1 DK points. <Portis projected for 25 min>

5. ORL facing NOR who is giving up 57.8 DK points. <Vucevic projected for 34 min>

6. PHI facing BOS who is giving up 57.2 DK points. <Embiid projected for 33 min>

7. CHI facing WAS who is giving up 56.5 DK points.

<< Big night for Center play! Wow! >>


POINT GUARDS:

1. TOR facing OKC who is giving up 55.2 DK points to the position.

2. HOU facing MEM who is giving up 50.3 DK points to the position.

3. UTA vs. NYK who is giving up 50.1 DK points to the position.


VALUE MONSTERS: (Players with a significant fantasy point to salary ratio.)

1. Elfrid Payton – 8.2x value over last 12 days.

2. Collin Sexton – 7.2x value over last 12 days.

3. Jalen Brunson – 7.1x value over last 12 days.

4. Brook Lopez – 6.4x value over last 12 days.

5. Mike Conley – 6.2x value over last 12 days.


**NEW** - Highest 7x Consistency Players (Players using their current slate salary that has the highest % of games at 7x over last 21 days. 5 game played minimum.)

1. Bobby Portis – 57% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.

2. Brandon Knight – 43% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.

3. Serge Ibaka – 40% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.

4. Brook Lopez – 37% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.

5. Dwayne Wade – 37% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.

6. Damian Lillard – 34% of games played in last 21 days they hit 7x their current salary mark.


MINUTE MONSTERS: (Players under $7,000 with the highest average minutes per game.)

1. Collin Sexton – 39.7 min/game over last 12 days.

2. Cedi Osman – 36.0 min/game over last 12 days.

3. Jalen Brunson – 34.4 min/game over last 12 days.

4. Josh Richardson – 34.4 min/game over last 12 days.

5. Damyean Dotson – 34.0 min/game over last 12 days.


SHOT MONSTERS: (Players under $7,000 taking a high number of FG attempts per game.)

1. Collin Sexton – 17.3 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.

2. Khris Middleton – 16.5 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.

3. Damyean Dotson – 15.7 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.

4. Pascal Siakam – 13.9 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.

5. Cedi Osman – 13.8 FG attempts/game over last 12 days.


INTERESTING STATS:

Players with monster games vs. the same opponent they are facing (if it was significant to their salary ratio):

1. Russell Westbrook – 80.8 points

2. James Harden – 77.8 points

3. Giannis A. – 77.0 points

4. Hassan Whiteside – 76.0 points

5. Kyrie Irving – 62.0 points


Players with the highest last 10 game ceiling price under $7,500:

1. Eric Bledsoe – 67.0 points

2. Lauri Markkanen – 61.8 points

3. Jusuf Nurkic – 60.3 points

4. Brook Lopex – 58.3 points

5. Goran Dragic – 57.3 points


Thank you for reading and good luck!

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Haze

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