Halloween Weekend Prize Picks & Player Props from CheatSheetPros!
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Let’s dive in and find some plays!
RUSHING YARD PROPS:
JONATHAN TAYLOR OVER 67.5
TEN is allowing 4.5 yards per carry (25th) in the NFL and Taylor is catching fire with 107, 145 and 103 rushing yards in 3 of the last 4 games. I like the RBs that are getting a ton of rushing attempts going against high yard per carry defenses. If you are familiar with our RB Trenches tab you would also see TEN ranks 22nd, 24th and 24th in D-Line, allowing runs of 5-10 yards and 10+ yard runs. His raw projection is 83 yards and while I don't like projections I like to see it's over his 67.5 yardage prop!
EZEKIEL ELLIOT OVER 73.5
MIN is allowing 128 rushing yards per game (26th) along with a 4.8 yards per carry (28th). Raw projection is 84 rushing yards and he has put up 69, 110, 143 and 95 over the last 4 games. When his total hit at 73.5 I instally like the over. Look at the screen shot below from our NFL RB Trenches tool. Dallas #1 O-Line vs. MIN 32nd D-Line, Dallas is 2nd in 5-10 yard runs and MIN is 25th in 5-10 yard runs allowed.
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RECEIVING YARD PROPS:
KYLE PITTS OVER 65.5
Finally we get the breakdown we have been waiting for all season! Last two weeks look like this 16 catches on 18 targets for 282 total yards and a tuddy! CAR isn't the dream matchup but Kyle Pitts has been the top receiving option and 8+ targets each of the last 3 games he could crush a 65.5 stat line!
JA'MARR CHASE OVER 88.5
Yes this line feels a little high but with 201, 97 and 159 yards in his last 3 games and the clear WR-1 and favorite target I'll bite. NYJ allowing 275 passing yards per game (25th) and rank 30th vs. the WR-1. Chase is on the case!
JUSTIN JEFFERSON UNDER 87.5
He has been under this number in 3 of the last 5 games and add in that he will have shadow coverage from Trevon Diggs and I like the under. I didn't go fantasy prop because the "catches" add up and a touchdown kills the under but really like going under 87.5 total yards as Diggs is having a great year and Jefferson the clear WR-1. (TIP: Also, like going over Adam Thielen as they correlate, if Jefferson goes under, Thielen likely goes over.)
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PRIZE PICK POINT PROPS (FANTASY POINTS):
JAMES ROBINSON OVER 16 FANTASY POINTS
This number just feels low to me with 19, 25, 20 and 25 over the last 4 weeks and WITH A GOOD MATCHUP! SEA allowing 134.1 rushing yards per game (30th) and they rank 31st in fantasy points to the RB position. J-Rob has 5 touchdowns in the last 4 games so if we assume he can get 1 tuddy here that is 16-6=10 points we need to make up. Put him down for 3 catches for 30 yards = 6 points and 75 rushing yards = 7.5 points and your pushing 20.
DAMIEN HARRIS OVER 12 FANTASY POINTS
I'm a sucker so I'l bite, 12? 12 is the number? Come on! He has 28 and 20.8 the last two games and you put a line of 12 out? How can I not like that in this matchup! Yes if it were against Buffalo I would understand 12 but vs. LAC? Chargers allowing 162.5 rushing yards per game (32nd) and 5.4 yards per carry (32nd) and any RB going up with 14-18 carries should get 12 fantasy points. LAC is also #1 vs. WR in terms of fantasy points but 29th vs. RBs so using the RB is the path for success. He isn't involved in the passing game but with the success on the ground does he really need to be? 70 rushing yards and a tuddy is 13 points and an EASY OVER!
KHALIL HERBERT OVER 12.5 FANTASY POINTS
Herbert has been great filling in for the Bears! He has 197 rushing yards in the two games and 7 targets for 19.2 and 21.3 fantasy points. His number of 12.5 feels very gettable this week. There are so many ways he could get there - with 5 grabs for 33 yards last week that's 8.3 points alone! His 100 rushing yards is another 10 points, touchdown another 6 points and only needs 12.5?
HONORABLE MENTION: DEEBO SAMUEL OVER 16 FANTASY POINTS
Clear WR-1 eating up tons of targets in a tougher matchup vs. the Bears. He has massive games of 25 and 38.7 DK points and also of his 3 lower games 2 of them were still over this number. Arizona was a tough matchup and put up 16.1 and 16.1 against Philly. With 9+ targets in each of the last 4 games I like the over to be considered this week.
HONORABLE MENTION: TEE HIGGINS OVER 14 FANTASY POINTS
15 targets last week! 7 grabs for 62 yards was 13.2 fantasy points and we only need to get over 14? It's far from a lock but with his air yards and the matchup this is one I would consider.
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Haze