NFL Week 6 Prize Picks & Player Props from CheatSheetPros!
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Let’s dive in and find some plays!
RUSH YARD PROPS:
JAMES ROBINSON OVER 79.5 - This line was 74.5 when I wrote it down earlier this week and now up to 79.5, Wow! He has 149, 78 and 88 rush yards over the last 3 games. Facing a MIA team giving up 133.6 rush yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.
DAMIEN WILLIAMS OVER 50.5 - Don't mind this one at all with a big run popping each of the last two games this could be an easy over. Has a long of 14 and 23 the L2 and averaging 4.0 and 6.9 yards per carry. Packers don't give up "big runs" and ranks 1st in least runs of 10+ yards allowed but they are 27th and 20th vs. the line and 5-10 yard runs. Middle of the road rush defense to take a shot on.
MELVIN GORDON OVER 43.5 - Don't love this but don't hate it. He only had 34 against a really stout PIT defense but BAL & NYJ I would put in the same tier of rush "D" as Vegas and he put up 56 and 60 against thing. This is a HOME game that I think they can win so hopefully he will get more than 9 carries! Vegas allowing 4.6 yards per rush (27th) and 134.4 rushing yards per game (25th).
EZEKIEL ELLIOT OVER 84.5 - He has been over this number 3 straight games putting up 95, 143 and 110 yards but what is more impressive is hte 17, 20 and 21 rushing attempts. NE is a middle of the road rush defense so it's not a dream matchup but 143 yards against CAR and 95 against Philly are impressive stats.
PASSING YARD PROPS:
DAVIS MILLS OVER 185.5 - Don't mind this as he now has 4 games under his belt and apparently feeling more comfortable with the offense coming off that 312 yard 3 touchdown game last week against New England. That was the first time he's went over 185.5 but in a game where they are a 10 point dog they should be throwing alot. I also like Cooks this week to be open as IND ranks 25th and 32nd vs. WR-1 and WR-2. We project Mills on our NFL sheet for around 218 passing yards.
TAYLOR HEINICKE OVER 259.5 - KC has no one that can cover Terry McLaurin so there is 100+ yards right off the bat. Also, KC will rack up some points in this game because WAS is allowing the 27th most passing yards per game and KC is no mediocre offense. KC is allowing the 28th most passing yards per game at 296 and we have Heiny projected at 290 going over by a healthy 30+ yards. He has the upside as we saw vs. @ATL and NYG where he put up the 290 and 336. He had 41 attempts last week against the Saints so just like the above guy he is likely getting more comfortable in the offensive. Like taking a shot on these lower totals.
DEREK CARR UNDER 265.5 - How about an UNDER play? With 206 and 196 over the last two games I wanted to see his line for the week going up against an Elite Denver secondary. DEN is only allowing 207 passing yards per game which is the 6th fewest in the NFL. With the amount of rush yards Vegas is allowing I think Denver can run the ball and slow this game down and keep Carr off the field.
RECEPTION & RECEIVING YARD PROPS:
DAMIEN WILLIAMS OVER 18.5 - Last week he only had 3 targets but caught 2 of them for 20 yards. This is a "one and done" type of prop. Packers are 24th vs. pass catching RBs and that is his specialty. Worth a look.
ROBERT TONYAN UNDER 32.5 - He has 8, 8, 6, 52 and 8 yards. Chicago is 9th best vs. the TE and with Adams, Jones, Cobb no one is looking at Tonyan unless it's near the endzone which is usually a small short yardage pass play.
JA'MARR CHASE OVER 68.5 - DET holds the 27th DVOA pass defense and I love what we are seeing out of Chase so far this season. His targets have been climbing from 4-5-9-10 and his catches from 2-4-6-6 and that also comes with the yardage 54-65-77-159! He could get this in 1-2 catches - Look at his LONG 70, 44, 34, 42 and 50. Clear cut WR-1 that will be invovled.
CHASE CLAYPOOL OVER 69.5 - JuJu down for the season so now it's Diontae and Claypool and they will eat up some targets! I was excited to see what his total was and at 69.5 and going over that each of the last 3 games and now they are down one of their top 3 WRs. SEA giving up the 30th most passing yards per game at over 300. Yes please!
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