NBA PRIZE PICKS Report from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
PrizePicks.com is a new website where you can parlay over/under player props. You can see the website or future articles for full details. We do have a promo code if you would like to sign up – 014219. If you do not have an account yet and it’s available in your area I would suggest holding off as we are trying to become an official affiliate for PrizePicks shortly.
NOTE: I also have my cheatsheet customized for Prize Picks. I have a tab just for Prize Picks and also a sheet that grabs all the game logs for Prize Picks and converts them into prize pick points and prize pick points per minutes to help you with your research!
SEXTON over 35 FPS
Facing a SAC team this should be an easy pick. He has exceeded 35 FPS in 5 of his last 8 games. What jumps out at me is that he has several games “well over” hitting 45.6, 54.8 and 54.6 FPs. He has also taken 20+ FG attempts in each of the last 3 games.
JAYLEN BROWN over 43 FPS
He is 4-0 for the “over” L4 games putting up 46.3, 43.7, 50.6 and 50.5 and also 20+ FG attempts in all of those games. No Kemba Walker tonight so he should continue his torrid run!
JONAS VALANCIUNAS over 36 FPS
He is 5-2 for the “over” here in his L7 games.
DONOVAN MITCHELL over 40 FPS
If this game is not a “blowout” Mitchell should roll once again. He has played two games in a row now with a Prize Pick Point Per Min over 1.50 and 34+ minutes. Those two games were 52 and 57.8 Prize Points. In 4 of his last 6 games he has been over 50 prize points so 40 just seems low here.
THAD YOUNG over 27 FPS
He has been on fire but his minutes are up and down. He has played 20, 28, 30, 22 and 22 minutes over the last 5 games. He has produced at no less than 1.18 prize points per minute so that tells me that he only needs 23 minutes to hit this number. He is coming off a game where he played at a 1.61 prize point per minute number so in only 20 minutes he put up 32.1 prize points.
DEVONTE’ GRAHAM over 26 FPS
LaMelo Ball is done for the season so Graham should move up from his 18-22 minutes to 30+ minutes per game. He is a safe 1.00-1.1 prize point per minute player so he only needs 25 minutes to hit value.
DEMAR DEROZAN over 7.5 AST
This number jumped out as the opponent is allowing top 3 more assist per game and DeRozan has 13, 7, 11, 4, 11, 11, 11 over recent played games. I just feel like his number should be 8.5 or 9.0 but 7.5 jumped out as “low” so taking a shot here.
CHRISTIAN WOOD over 43 FPS
I don’t think he will play on a B2B but if he does I like his over number. He is coming off a game with 47.6 prize points and played 36 minutes and the game prior he only logged 27 minutes but still put up 41.2 prize points.
PRIZE PICK PREMIUM STRATEGY:
The idea is running (4) different 5 man flex cards. You have to find 3 plays that you really like and then 2 combos of 2 players where one of them is very likely to hit out of the two and sometimes BOTH of them hit.
Examples are Westbrook & Beal points over, Lowry & VanVleet points over, etc. Then take your 2 man combos and mix and match all 4 possible combinations with the 3 flex plays you really like.
If you can hit your 3 flex plays you should be locked into a 10x card hitting 5 of 5. Now, where you really get good odds is if both of your 2 either/or players hit then you have potential for hitting (2) 10x cards out of the 4. Now with a flex card you get paid if you get 4/5 and even some money back for 3/5 so it’s not a total wipe out if you miss a play or two and still gives you the big upside.
I’ve ran this combo 3x so far. One day I hit my 3 flex plays and got a 10x card through for a hefty profit. One day my combo guys both missed and sunk me. One day I got lucky and both combo players hit giving me two 10x cards for another profitable day.
THIS IS WHAT I HAVE FOR TODAY:
COMBO PLAYERS: Fox over 25.5 points – Hield over 17.5 points
COMBO PLAYERS: Sexton over 25.5 points – Garland over 17.5 points
FLEX 1: Jaylen Brown over 43 FPs
FLEX 2: DeMar DeRozan over 7.5 AST
FLEX 3: Torn between DeVonte Graham over 26 FPs, Thad Young over 27 FPs, Mitchell over 40 FPs, Gallinari over 26 FPs.
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Haze