THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAYS!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Before we dive into "My Process" and some of the things I look for I wanted to give out my plays. I'm building around teasing the Rams UP, teasing the total OVER and any Gabe Davis props I can get my hands on. Davis was putting 40-50 yards a game last year running as the WR-3 and WR-4 and now he is the clear WR-2 and these 50-55 numbers are way TO LOW so grab them now!
STEP #1 - LOOK AT THE MONEY & LINE MOVEMENTS!
Bills opened at (+1) and is now (-2.5) meaning there are a lot of people betting on the Bills to move the line. Each website is going to show you a different percentage of money and tickets so check a few of them. Some of them only pull from a single sportsbook and some pull from an average above the top sportsbooks. Here we can see the SIDE is almost split but the TOTAL OVER is taking 73% of the CASH and 69% of the tickets.
STEP #2 - CHECK THE NFL CHEATSHEET!
Here I want to look at a few things. 1) TRank and PFF projected lines to get an "idea" where the line "should be". 2) I love my own models for the CheatSheetPros Proj line and the V2 line. However, I don't really get popping until Week 2/Week 3 because I want some current season stats to dig into! This is a good spot for VEGAS TRENDS, Offensive vs. Defensive line rankings, pass coverage rankings vs. WR-1, WR-3, Slot, TE and pass catching RBs. I love this for Season Long DFS, Daily Fantasy, Player Props & Betting.
For this game we see the "CheatSheetPros" line with Bills (-3.3) points so we would round that up to (-3.5). However, the stud shutdown corner for the Bills (T. White) is OUT tonight so I would agree with the +1/-1 as shown on TRanks and PFF. Version 2 pulls current stats and yardages which all have 2021 so I'm not focusing on it right now.
STEP #3 - CHECK PROJECTIONS!
This year we are pulling projections from Roto and PFF and putting them side by side so you can see if there are any differences or agreements. Great for DFS, Player Props and projections!
STEP #4 - START BUILDING YOUR PLAYS!
As of September 1st, 2022 I have access to DraftKings Sportsbook so I'm going to go nuts on these SAME GAME PARLAYS! I have (4) $50 free bets and another (8) $25 free bets between BetMGM and DK. You will see a few more SGP's in this because these bets expire after this weekend and wanted to get a bunch of action locked in!
BET #1 - SAME GAME PARLAY:
I took a $50 free bet and wanted something that paid over +200. I think this game will be a 3-4 point game either way so I start with an Alt Line of taking the RAMS +7.5.
MY THOUGHTS ON THE GAME: The Rams feel disrespected being a HOME DOG and they just won the Superbowl and everyone is talking about the Buffalo Bills and how they are the favorites to win the Superbowl in 2022. Jalen Ramsey was extremely upset how no one is talking about the Rams in 2022 and stated he felt disrespected.
BETTING PICKS: The biggest mistake new bettors make is teasing a game and crossing 0. You lose so much value when you go from something like (-3) to (+3). I read a very convincing article years ago that broke down all the stats and numbers over several years of games but to make a long story short try not to cross 0 when teasing a game. With the RAMS @ HOME, Bills missing their top corner and what is projected to be a CLOSE game I wanted to get something over a touchdown and a hook so I was able to get the RAMS +7.5. LOVE LOVE LOVE the OVER but 52.5 is a steep price to pay so I took the ALT line down to 47.5. If you think this could be a 24-21 game then ALT over 44.5, I wanted some extra juice in my payday so went 47.5 and shooting for a 27-21 game to squeak over.
PLAYER PROPS: We will discuss these more below but LOVE Gabe Davis OVER tonight! He had a great campe and is running as the Bills #2 WR. I always try to "think" what I would peg the line at and for Davis I was on 69.5 but anything with a "5" in front of it just feels like a slam dunk. I have Gabe Davis overs for Prize Picks, Straight Props and into several "Same Game Parlays" that you can see below.
BET #2 - ANOTHER SAME GAME PARLAY
I had another ODDS BOOST so I wanted something that looked stupid easy that was plus money that I could double again on the odds boost. This bet i got to +195 and with the odds boost shot it up to +390.
- Each team to score at least 1 TD? Seems reasonable!
- Each team over 16.5 points? These two teams were #3 and #6 in PPG last year and neither has a strong running game.
- Gabe Davis over 44.5 yards. He is my favorite prop and love over 60-70 so for a slam dunk I alted this down to 44.5.
- Cooper Kupp over 74.5 yards. This is the only one that I'm worried about but feels odd being worried about a guy as electric as Kupp.
- Stafford over 229.5 passing yards. This was the lowest alt passing yard prop I could get on Stafford. Not a fan of Cam Akers or Henderson starting off with a big rushing game vs. the Bills so taking the HOME QB.
BET #3 - THE "LONG SHOT" SWEAT OF A SAME GAME PARLAY!
I love the ability to take a small fraction of a unit and going after a "long shot" same game parlay. How many times to do we see a 35-31 game with over 900 total yards? Those are money making opportunities! I have a few that are over 100:1 for Week 1. If you are a $20-$25 unit better then take a $3-$5 long shot, if you are a smaller $10 bettor then bet $1-$2 on your long shot and take a shot.
This isn't a true "long shot" but got this to +2800 and I only need to win this 3.4% of the time to be profitable. I definitely feel like this has a better than 3.4% chance to win!
BET #4 - FREE BET ON MGM AND JUST DECIDED TO STACK A BUNCH OF PLAYERS!
BET #5 - PRIZE PICKS CARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
Here is a shot I took on Prize Picks tonight. Tom Brady over 0.5 Passing Yards is the FREE SQUARE on Prize Picks with a $25 MAX on it. I wanted to take 4 plays tonight (2 from each team) and try to get a card locked up going into the weekend!
NFL PLAYER PROPS!
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Good Luck!
Haze