NFL Thursday Night Showdown from CheatSheetPros!
INJURIES / PLAYERS RULED OUT:
Jeff Wilson Jr.
Aaron Jones – Questionable to play
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN:
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE: Packers 27 vs. 49’ers 25
VEGAS: Line opened at Packers -2.5 and has moved to -6.5 with the news. Our algo does not factor in the player changes so I lean on the side of the Packers for this game.
DVP QUICK LOOK:
The one thing that jumps out at me on this screen is the fantasy points allowed to the RB position by the Packers. They are giving up 37.1 DKP to the RB and ranks 32nd in the NFL.
SAN FRANCISCO PLAYERS:
JAMYCAL HASTY & JERICK MCKINNON – These guys will lead the back field for San Fran and I assume they will get a few more carries to keep Rodgers off the field. Hasty we have projected at around 60-70 rushing yards with a 75% shot at a touchdown and McKinnon will work as the primary 3rd down and passing down back. We have him projected around 30-40 rushing yards with 3-4 catches for another 30-40 and around a 40% chance at a touchdown. San Fran has the rushing advantage with the 16th OLine vs. 25th DLine and in the 5-10 yard run category they are 14th vs. 15th of GB and in the 10+ yard category San Fran ranks 5th and Packers 24th. This means Hasty could break off some big runs in the game and rack up some serious yards!
JORDAN REED / ROSS DWELLEY – Packers are 32nd at covering the TE position and Nick Mullens loves throwing to his TEs! If Reed is active he will be a fun passing option but if not then I don’t mind some Ross Dwelley.
BRANDON AIYUK – He will draw the shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander and he is a stud corner that is only allowing 0.15 fantasy points round and a 58% catch rate. Josh Jackson is the other corner and he is allowing a 69% catch rate and is graded out much lower than his counterpart per PFF. This puts the other WR in play for us. With Samuel and Bourne already out for the game they are expected to promote Kevin White, River Cracraft or Chris Finke from the practice squad.
GREEN BAY PACKER PLAYERS:
DAVANTE ADAMS – Will get shadow coverage from Jason Varrett who is allowing a low 0.10 fantasy points per route and 61% catch rate. However, Adams is uncoverable with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. So don’t let the shadow situation worry you too much.
AARON JONES – If AJ is able to suit up for this one he has a tough matchup vs. a San Fran rush defense that ranks 7th in the NFL. They have the 10th DLine, 9th in allowing 5-10 years runs and 4th in runs of 10+ yards. They are also 13th vs. pass catching RBs. If Jones doesn’t go there will be a mix of punt players we can mix into our lineups.
TYLER ERVIN (200), DEXTER WILLIAMS (200) & TRENT TAYLOR (400).
FAVORITE CAPTAIN PLAYS:
AARON RODGERS, JAMYCAL HASTY, NICK MULLENS
I like getting both QBs in a lineup stacked with a pass catcher from each team and one of the San Fran RBs. My preferred back right now is JaMycal Hasty. You can mix and match the captain spots but this game is lacking big play makers outside of Rodgers, Adams, Aaron Jones (if he plays) and Hasty. The easiest path for success is San Fran running the ball and Packers throwing the ball.
NFL TEAM RANKING SCREEN SHOT FROM THE CHEATSHEET:
"IN THE TRENCHES" BREAKDOWN
FANTASY POINTS SCORED PER WEEK FOR EACH TEAM:
Thanks for reading,