PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
This week is the TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP where the top 30 players in FedEx Cup points play for a massive bonus. No cut event and the players will start with a staggered score based on how they finished in FedEx Cup points.
East Lake GC – 7,350ish yards – Par 70
Green Type: Bermuda
Green Speeds: Firm & Fast
Scoring relative to par: Average to Difficult.
STARTING SCORES FOR THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP:
Dustin Johnson -10 Jon Rahm -8 Justin Thomas -7 Webb Simpson -6 Collin Morikawa -5 Daniel Berger -4 Harris English -4 Bryson DeChambeau -4 Sungjae Im -4 Hideki Matsuyama -4 Brendon Todd -3 Rory McIlroy -3 Patrick Reed -3 Xander Schauffele -3 Sebastian Munoz -3 Lanto Griffin -2 Scottie Scheffler -2 Joaquin NIemann -2 Tyrrell Hatton -2 Tony Finau -2 Kevin Kisner -1 Abraham Ancer -1 Ryan Palmer -1 Kevin Na -1 Marc Leishman -1 Cameron Smith E Viktor Hovland E Mac Hughes E Cameron Champ E Billy Horschel E
QUICK BREAKDOWN OF SOME KEY STATS:
This course is long so we are looking at players with solid driving distance.
Strokes gained OTT – APP – Proximity are key stats to follow this week.
(2) Par 5 holes have birdie rates of 47% and 55% everything else is around 25% and less so great P5 scoring players will have some birdie opportunities.
(3) Par 4 holes have BOGEY rates of 21.6% to 27.5% so Par 4 scoring is also key.
Ball Striking – is made up of OTT + APP so this is a good catch all stat to look for this week.
STROKES GAINED PUTTING ON BERMUDA GREENS – LAST 50 ROUNDS:
1 – Webb Simpson
2 – Billy Horschel
3 – Sungjae Im
4 – Brendon Todd
5 – Harris English
6 – Bryson DeChambeau
7 – Marc Leishman
8 – Sebastian Munoz
9 – Dustin Johnson
10 – Daniel Berger
11 – Xander Schauffele
12 – Patrick Reed
13 – Kevin Kisner
14 – Cameron Champ
15 – Rory McILroy
GOLFERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:
Recent Finishes at East Lake: 3rd – 7th – 2nd – 6th
PLAYER NOTES: Thomas finished 3rd here last year but was negative strokes gained on APP and negative on PUTT. Thomas hasn’t lit the world on fire in his last few events but he is +1.69 strokes gained on ball striking for the season and that is the highest of any golfer in the field.
Recent Finishes at East Lake: 2nd – 7th – 1st
PLAYER NOTES: He has 12 rounds under his belt at East Lake and he is +3.34 strokes gained per round and that is the highest of any golfer in the field. Xander came in 2nd last year finishing with a solid +2.01 strokes gained APP and +2.12 T2G. Xander was the only golfer who finished close to +2 SG: APP last year and the next highest person was Jon Rahm at only +1.49. Xander is +1.42 strokes gained ball striking on the year and that is above the likes of Jon Rahm, Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger.
Recent Finishes at East Lake: 7th – 15th – 7th
PLAYER NOTES: Tony finished 7th here last year and was positive strokes gained across the board. With 3 top 15 finishes here the last 3 years, +1.18 strokes gained in ball striking and 3 top 5 finishes in his last 5 events he is someone that we could build around this week.
LINEUP BUILDING THIS WEEK:
DUSTIN JOHNSON – Is almost unplayable this week at his 15,200 DK salary. If he runs away with it then he would hit value but that isn’t likely in this field. I’m fading DJ this week and looking for more contrarian lineups. Fade the top couple guys and build a more balanced lineup and hope for the top to falter.
Thanks for reading,