NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last week the sheet exploded! If you saw the screen shots from the new WR/CB chart you would see that 6 of the top 7 WRs smashed! Also if you took the top player per team in the GPP Algo column you had DeVante Parker (24 points), OBJ (38.4 points), Will Fuller (36.4 points), Devin Singletary (18.6 points) & Amari Cooper (36.4 points). Our top two QBs for the week on the Algo were Aaron Rodgers (32.6 points) but he was not on the main slate so then Fitzpatrick was our top Algo on the main and put up (26.3 points) at only 5400 on DK. NEW: This week we also added the target monster tab showing each players targets each week in a sortable format!
TOP PLAYERS FROM EACH TEAM ON THE ALGO TAB:
ADAM THIELAND / JUSTIN JEFFERSON – SEA is giving up the most FPs to the WRs in the league at 70.5 PPG. MIN is a run first team but SEA is lighting up the scoreboard and this game has a total of 58. These WRs should eat this week. The outside WRs for MIN have a solid shot this week the best cover corner for SEA is on the slot. Jefferson runs 51% of his routes out of the slot so I slightly prefer Adam Thieland who will run 81% of his routes on the outside. Both should be solid targets this week.
DARIUS SLAYTON – He is showing up as a solid option on the sheet but not a huge fan. He is getting 6-7 targets per week and in a plus matchup priced at only 4800. If the sheet spits him out he will be in my player pool.
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE – To find a RB pop up in the Algo portion is unusual but this is a prime matchup for CEH. LV is giving up 30 PPG and 138.2 rushing yards per game (25th in the NFL). LV also ranks 30th in rushing defense. KC should easily win this game so CEH should get plenty of carries.
TYLER LOCKETT / D.K. METCALF – Other side of the ball we have Lockett and Metcalf. Our custom algo has this game dropping 66.8 real life points and the Vegas total is already 57.5. In passing yards allowed these two are 29th and 32nd allowing 291.8 and 401 passing yards per game. Wow! These two means also rank 31st and 28th vs. the deep pass. The only people on SEA getting targets are these two and surprisingly Greg Olsen has had 14 targets in the last two weeks (7 & 7).
WR vs. CB MATCHUP CHART ADVANTAGES:
The key here is finding the advantage but also that players has to be used or targeted in the passing game. I noticed some people finding anyone with an advantage and playing them and when they did not do well my response was they are getting 2-4 targets and game and hardly used. So make sure it is a viable stud you are seeking out! Instead of only sorting by the “ADV” advantage column you can also sort by Player Grade and then look at the ADV from there.
TYREEK HILL – He is running 56% of his routes out of the slot and LaMarcus Joyner is the slot cover corner for LV. He covers the slot 89% of the time and is allowing a high 76% catch rate. Hill has the best matchup of all the KC WRs so he should have a big play in him for this week. Did I mention that LV is 26th vs the deep ball?
COOPER KUPP – Kupp runs 61% of his routes out of the slot and should eat against Jimmy Moreland who is the primary slot cover corner for WAS. He is allowing a 76% catch rate and 0.36 fantasy points per route in his coverage. Surprisingly, Kupp has a 4” height advantage and 30lb advantage.
DEANDRE HOPKINS – DHop runs 83% of his routes on the left side and Blessuan Austin will cover that side 94% of the time. Austin has one of the lowest PFF grades of any cover corner. DHop has a 29% target share and a whopping 0.54 fantasy points per route run and an 85% catch rate. Easy pick if you can afford him.
OTHER PLAYERS: The new WR vs. CB Matchup chart is fun to play with as you can sort my teams, player grades, advantages, catch rate, fantasy points per route run, etc. Today I was writing the article and sorting by corner grade and looking at lowest to highest and the slot corner for TEN (Chris Jackson) has the lowest grade. Gabriel Davis could be a sneaky GPP play as he runs out of the slot 59% of the time and will see a lot of Chris Jackson. Davis is only getting 10% of targets so GPP only and don’t go crazy on me! Deebo Samuel gets the 2nd worst corner if almost 40% of his routes so that is another GPP play to think about. CeeDee Lamb runs 93% of his routes out of the slot and the NYG own the 4th worst graded cover corner in Darnay Holmes and he covers the slot 88% of the time. CeeDee go boom!
TARGET MONSTER TAB BREAKDOWN:
So who had the most targets last week? Who has the most targets on the year? Who has the highest average of targets per game? These are things I kept asking myself so finally decided to create another tab on the NFL Cheat Sheet to give us this information!
MOST TARGETED PLAYERS IN WEEK 4:
AMARI COOPER (15)
GEORGE KITTLE (15)
KEENAN ALLEN (14)
TERRY MCLAURIN (14)
DARREN WALLER (12)
DEVANTE PARKER (12)
MOST TARGET PER GAME AVERAGE ON THE SEASON:
KEENAN ALLEN (12.8 PER GAME)
AMARI COOPER (12.5 PER GAME)
CALVIN RIDLEY (11.7 PER GAME)
DEANDRE HOPKINS (11.5 PER GAME)
JAMISON CROWDER (11.0 PER GAME) *ONLY 2 GAMES PLAYED.
TERRY MCLAURIN (10.3 PER GAME)
DEVANTE ADAMS (10 PER GAME)
NFL DEFENSIVE VS. POSITION BREAKDOWN FOR WEEK 5
UTILITZING THE "STACK TAB" ON THE CHEATSHEET:
1 - Custom Model will show you if we have this as a high or low scoring game, useful for DFS to determine if more points might be available.
2 - Jumping out at me is that both teams rank low vs. the deep pass so some big plays could be in store for us in this game.
3 - Both teams are not solid at coverage vs. the WR-1 on the opposing teams.
4 - This one is my favorite! I'll show you the fantasy points projected for the ENTIRE TEAM and then what the other team is ALLOWING! If there is "Room for Upside" you'll see a quick pop-up on the sheet. Here you see MIN is only projected for 76.2 points but SEA is allowing 128.4 points! So who is going to get all these extra points that are available????
I hope this little article helps you out and look for the sports betting article in the next day or so!
Thanks for reading,
Haze