QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Today we are going to dive into some PLAYER PROPS that are jumping out tonight. Some of my favorites are not up yet due to "Q-tag" players. We had a great night last night hitting another (3) leg +350 that I will post below if I don't forget when putting this together!Â
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PLAYER PROP #1 - BANCHERO OVER 5.5 ASSISTS
This screen shot is from our "Game Logs" tab in our NBA cheatsheet. Here you can see the last 7 game logs for the player, DK props that are up and their hit rate along with projections. Here we see ASSISTS opened at 5.5 and has hit 100% over the last 7 games with Banchero putting up 10, 8, 6, 7, 7, 6 and 7. Now look at the screen shot below and you can see he has been OVER this line in 11 straight games. Think line should be 6.0 or event 6.5 and I'm sure it will get bumped but riding it at 5.5 if you are straight betting or you can ALT it to 5+ and lay some juice which is what I did on my same game parlay.
** Screen shot from Rotowire.
PLAYER PROP #2 - BUDDY HIELD OVER 17.5 POINTS -OR- 4.5 ASSISTS
Buddy Hield was a favorite prop of mine the other night and you could alt it at 12+ or 15+ or take 18+ at plus money and you can see he dropped over 20 for an easy score! The 3 games Hield has played Philly has put up 123, 119 and 121 points and that's better than the 104 and 102 the two prior games. This line will continue to climb in future games but it's already up to 17.5 and tonight I will alt this at 15+ and then take 20+ on different tickets. His Points + Assists is also sneaky since he is crushing both of those!
PLAYER PROP #3 - MALIK MONK POINTS (No line up yet)
Monk smashed me (3) legger last night for me so going right back to him again. He hwas 22+ points in 6/7 games and the one other game was still 18 points. With a consistent 20-24 points his points prop will be to low when it opens. PRO TIP! In the screen shot below I'm showing the FG attempts. When betting a points prop I want to see how they are shooting and make sure they are taking a bunch of shots. Here we can see 16, 20, 13 and 21 just over the last 4 games which is a solid baseline!
PLAYER PROP #4 - DEVIN VASSELL POINTS
I prefer the ALT line here which is what will be in my same game but if you only have access to Prize Picks then I don't mind a play on his points prop. You can see he has a 71% hit rate over the L7 games and taking a bunch of shots (usually 15+ FGA). I went with 15+ for my SGP as I am putting (5) legs together tonight to gobble up the DK 50% boosted odds!
PLAYER PROP #5 - EVAN MOBLEY POINTS + REBOUNDS
This is another leg in my alt same game parlay tonight. You can see the monster hit rates on all his props but mainly points and rebounds. I went with 20+ Points + Rebounds tonight as that feels fairly decent with him putting up 24, 28, 26, 30, 25 and 38 over the last 6 games. His PRA prop of 24.5 has a 7-0 "OVER" going which I also just noticed so maybe I'll swap over to that.
MY SAME GAME PARLAY WITH 50% DK BOOSTED ODDS:
Buddy Hield 18+ Points
Paolo Banchero 5+ Assists
Devin vassell 15+ Points
Evan Mobley 20+ Points + Rebounds
Malik Monk (line not yet posted but will alt around the 15+ mark)
PLUS MONEY LEGS:
I aways put together a monster same game parlay prop that has a bunch of legs that are all plus money. When doing your research if you see a player crushing a line then look at taking a higher line at plus money. I typically highlight these when going through game logs. An example of a player the other night was Buddy Hield Points and I think 20+ was (+140) and he went over. Tonight, I am looking at Buddy Hield again but his Points + Assists line as you can take 25+ (+140) and he has 32, 29 and 26 in his last 3 games. (See his game log screen shot above.)
There are several players props that come up during the day that we discuss in the Facebook chat group. The NBA sheet is updated around 4:00-4:30 cental time so around 90 minutes prior to lock and we pull all the new player props that come up throughout the day. The majority of my plays come with the "PM" update of the sheet and I place them between 4:30-5:30p central time. I have about 20 listed but these are some of my favorites that I wanted to share!
Thanks for reading,
Haze!