NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
VALUE PLAYS:
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
NEWS TO MONITOR – MIGHT OPEN UP VALUE PLAYS:
JIMMY BUTLER – Tyler Herro & Goran Dragic are both questionable. If they are both out then Butler should be locked into 30+ minutes and 20+ FG attempts.
LAMELO BALL – Terry Rozier is questionable and if he is ruled out could we possibly get a LaMelo start??? He has now played 30+ minutes in the last two games and put up 55.25 and 35.5 DKPs and priced at 6500. His minutes have been up and down this year but if Rozier is out he is locked into 30 minutes playing a 1.22 FPPM.
ZION WILLIAMSON – If Steven Adams is out (currently Q) then Zion has slate breaking potential with the extra boards he could grab against a terrible defense!
GUARDS:
TRAE YOUNG – If paying up at the guard spot then Trae Young is definitely in the conversation. He should be a $10k player putting up his 1.50 FPPM over the last 5 games which is up +24% from is normal 1.26 number. He is priced at 9300 and 5x is only 46.5 DKPs and 6x is just shy of 56. He has 7 straight games OVER 50 DKPs making him a solid CASH or GPP play tonight.
CAM REDDISH – De’Andre Hunter has already been ruled out for tonight and Cam Reddish has a usage bump from 20.3% to up 24.9% and should be locked into 30+ minutes. He is playing slightly better over the last 5 with a FPPM bump from 0.79 to 0.85. (Note: Remember, players under 0.90 FPPM have a lot of risk!) He is priced at 4800 tonight and has a recent floor of 15 DKPs (3x value) up to 35+ DKPs for 7x value. Good for GPP, not for cash unless it’s the last spot on your roster.
LAMELO BALL – See write up above on Terry Rozier. This guy has flashed major upside and played 30+ minutes in back-to-back games. Love him if Rozier is out, if Rozier is playing then slide him down a little bit.
IMMANUEL QUICKLEY – High risk high reward GPP shot here with Quickley. He has played 25 and 27 minutes in the last two games and put up 36.25 and 37.25 which is only around 7x value his current salary. Slight change he moves into the starting lineup. He is playing at a 1.27 FPPM level which is really solid. Priced at only 5300 you have to put him in your player pool, 7x upside is massive. I mean LeBron is over $10K and for him to his 7x he needs 70+ DKPs and he can do it but it’s a rare shot.
LONZO BALL – Only 5500 is too cheap for Lonzo who is playing red hot right now. He has 30.5 and 47.25 DKPs in his last two games and that is around 6x and 9x value. I believe his floor is around 6x so love him for GPPs!
TYRESE HALIBURTON – Coming off the bench he has played 30+ minutes in 4 straight games putting up 29, 39, 22 and 37 DKPs and priced barely over 5K at 5200. That is pushing 8x upside. I love that he is playing a team that has no defense and always plays in fast paced high total games.
THEO MALEDON – George Hill has been out and is still out tonight. During that time Theo Maledon has started 3 games in a row playing 22, 30 and 33 minutes and putting up 17.5, 24 and 36.75 DKPs. He is playing more minutes and putting up more points each game he gets under his belt. He is only 4300, are you kidding me! Fire up some Theo!
FORWARDS:
GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – Could you imagine trying to spell your last name as a kid? Sorry that just came into my head. Back to fantasy. Giannis is in fire right now and the easiest pick for the spend up option on the slate. He is 11K and if you can get 66 DKPs that is 6x value. To make more sense if you had two 5500 players hit 6x that is great but if you can combine them into a single player that you feel strongly will hit that 6x it’s an easier floor for your lineups. Giannis has put up 72, 68 and 63 DKPs over the last 3 games.
JIMMY BUTLER – Butler took a big price jump to 8400 but still not terrible and if Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic are out tonight then I’m paying up! He came back and played 34 minutes putting up 50.75 DKPs shooting only 8 for 19 with a 35.5% usage rate. Solid production for a low-mid $8K range guy. His last 3 played games going back before his absence was 50.75, 59.50 and 46 DKPs.
ZION WILLIAMSON – He is a rock solid player for cash games smashing that 5-5.5x value game after game and priced at only 7900. As stated above in the news section to watch if Steven Adams is ruled out then ZION could jump to a 6x-7x upside and grab more boards. If Adams is in then he is fine for cash but would not use for GPP, but if Adams is OUT load him up in your GPPs and cash lock is fine!
ANTHONY EDWARDS – Since he is SG/SF eligible I’m sliding him into the forwards because those are always hard spots to fill. Edwards is a trigger happy rookie taking a ton of shots. He has 12+ FG attempts in 8 STRAIGHT GAMES so if they start to fall he has huge upside. He was 5600 and we were on him yesterday and he went 9 for 15 for 41.258 DKPS. He now has hit 40+ DKPs in two of the last 3 games and started each of the last two games. 5600 is TOO CHEAP!
CENTERS:
NIKOLA JOKIC – Joker is 10,900 and he is also another fine spend up option. He is coming off two great games of 77.5 and 61 DKPs. DET is giving up 56.4 DKPs to the center spot and that is the highest on the slate and that is also 24% of the total points they are allowing. Remember, when we see 22% and higher that is a smash DVP spot that you need to watch for. If the game can stay somewhat close he will easily smash and great for cash. If this game is a blowout then he will likely sit around that 4-5x range.
ANDRE DRUMMOND – We just saw this matchup and loved the Drummond play at 8400. So how did he do? He dropped a solid 62.5 DKPs for us putting up 33 minutes. Now he gets the same matchup and price only increased by 200 to 8600. Yes sir! If you think Drummond won’t get the minutes then pivot over to Jarrett Allen but if you can fit Drummond we like him to smash again!
CODY ZELLER – Price has climbed from 3300 and now up to 5300 but he is still hitting value. He has broke 37 DKPs in 2 of the last 3 games and that is 7x his salary. Tough matchup but he is fairly cheap tonight.
DVP BREAKDOWN:
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
OPTIMAL LINEUP FROM 4 GAME SLATE ON 1.31
I just thought it would be fun for people to see what the "best possible lineup" was from last night on 1.31. This lineup put up 385 total points with $48,800 of salary. The main thing I want people to understand is that you don't have to spend all the money, feel free to leave some cash on the table. Also, you can pivot off chalk plays like Tony Bradley over to Dwight Howard as that seems to be one that we are commonly running into these days.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze