NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
PLAYERS THAT WE LIKE ON THE SLATE TONIGHT!
LUKA DONCIC – Luka has the highest ceiling of any player and he is priced under $11k on DK. In his last 6 games played he has hit 86.3 and 87.5 DK points so the main point is that he has done it TWICE and it was not a single random game. The red flag for me is that Utah plays at a very slow pace so use him but don’t lock him in tonight.
STEPHEN CURRY – He is 9300 and has an easy 6x match tonight. He just played MIN and went 34 minutes, took 21 shots and put up 53.5 DKPs. He is a great CASH GAME play tonight as he has around a 5x floor and 6x upside. For that reason I don’t like using him in GPPs as we need to shoot for 6x-7x or higher with the higher cash points this year.
MALCOLM BROGDON – He is 8600 but coming off a 60.3 DK point game tonight and might be without Sabonis. If Sabonis is out his usage rate is around 27%.
MIKE CONLEY – As I am writing this article I noticed Donovan Mitchell was just ruled out. This gives Conley a usage bump from 23% up to 27.2% and priced at only 6100 tonight I have a lot of interest in him. This also puts Jordan Clarkson is play at 5900 who is playing at 1.20 FPPM and should see a boost from his 23 minutes per game.
** NEWS TO MONITOR!** KENDRICK NUNN – Jimmy Butler still OUT, Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic both Q for tonight so Nunn could see another huge minutes boost if one or both of them are ruled out. Make sure to check the updated NBA sheet tonight for the changes because this could be a big one! Nunn is priced at 5700 on DK and playing around a fantasy point per min. This means if he is projected for 35 minutes that is around 35 DKPs putting him at around 6x value.
GORDON HAYWARD – He is priced at 7500 and that still feels a little cheap. He is coming off a 43 DKP game but prior to that he hit 57.3 and 50.5 DKPs. If you have followed me in the chat or read any of my stuff you know mid 7K player with 50 DKP upside is my jam! IND may also be without Sabonis tonight which would help Haywards upside! Hay~Hay for the win! No, I’m not talking about the rock eating chicken from Moana! Sorry that is my comical humor for the day.
DEMAR DEROZAN – He was priced up to almost 9000 earlier this season and he is down to only 7100. Yes this guy is a roller coaster but he has upside at this price tag. In his last 5 games he has 2 games in the mid 20’s (blah!) but he has 3 games over 43 DKPs and that is over 6x value pushing 7x. Game total is a decent 223 with a tight +4 point spread tonight. If he can play 30+ minute she will crush value, the game where he was in the mid 20’s for DKPs he played 27 and 25 minutes and they won one by 20 and lost one by 22. So if the game stays close as Vegas thinks it will he is a good value play tonight!
PHO PLAYERS: I wanted to focus on Mikal Bridges since we are lumping the forwards together but noticed a trend. Mikal has upside with a 51 DKP game on January 22nd where he shot 8 for 15 and grabbed 10 boards and he is priced at only 5300, that is 10x upside! He has several games that are 5x and just shy but the 9x and 10x ceiling is something we need to take down a GPP. Look at our NBA cheatsheet you have DeAndre Ayton – Mikal Bridges – Chis Paul and they are rotating monster games! If you enter a 3 max tourney I would do a lineup with EACH of them. Chris Paul is coming of a 56.8 DKP game, prior was Mikal 51 & Ayton 48.3 and prior to that is was Ayton at 62.3. I WOULD NOT play all 3 together but don’t mind Mikal & Ayton as these seem to pop at the same time.
CLINT CAPELA – This guy has been on FIRE for us as he has smashed every time we wrote him up in an article! He is coming off a short 45 DKP game but prior to that he hit 63.3 and 76 DKPs. Tonight, he gets a BKN team that can’t guard the rim. BKN allowed BAM to put up a 26-10-5 line where they only scored 98 points in the game, the prior game BAM put up a 41-5-9 line and in the game prior against CLE Jarrett Allen and Drummond combined for 38 points and 22 boards. Capela who has been on fire is priced up to 9100 but has easy 50-60 DKP upside against this team.
MYLES TURNER – If Sabonis is OUT (currently Q) I love some Myles Turner at 7500. He has put up 42, 49 and 41.3 DKPs over his last 3 games and he has a massive usage bump with Sabonis off the floor that jumps from 18% to 23.2%. Another mid 7K guy with pushing 50 DKP upside. If Sabonis is in I don’t mind him but don’t love him.
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
TIERS CONTEST - STRATEGY RECAP FROM 1.26.21
I don't know if this will work every day but last night I decided to SORT BY GPP ALGO and then take the highest 1-2 guys for each TIER. If you did this you EASILY CASHED! So let's look at the guys and the final results:
TIER 1 - They were all pretty tight so no one really stood out and you couldn't go wrong with any pick but Beal was the slight leader and our TOP PICK by Algo.
TIER 2 - TRAE & Gobert were both over 50 DKPs and the other two guys were below 28 so either guy gave you a solid pick and Trae Young was out top pick.
TIER 3 - John Collins is the highest and finished 2nd in the points right behind Reggie Jackson. RJax was getting the spot start so he does not have a solid producing history so he did not climb the algo that is just someone you have to understand his minutes played are going to double for the night. If you took John Collins you still had the #2 guy that was only 4-5 points behind Jackson who led the tier.
TIER 4 - Barrett & Conley were the top two picks and Conley was tied for the leader.
TIER 5 - Easy LOCK BUTTON here with DeMarcus Cousins - See how high he is above the other TIER 5 picks? That's a lock for me! So how did he do? He put up over 50 DKPs and the 2nd guy in the tier was at only 28.
TIER 6 - I was shocked with the T6 results as we had Alec Burks who finished 3rd in the tier (not bad) and then our 2nd option (who I did not play) was Royce O'Neal who won the tier.
So if you took the top play or picked one of the top 2 players you were easily cashing the TIERS contest. I will follow this over the next week and let you know if it is consistently working or was a one-off night!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!