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3M Open "Risers & Fallers" from CheatSheetPros!


PGA GPP Risers & Fallers from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

We always want to look at ownership because it can be a game changer when trying to win a GPP. It is fine to play the high owned “chalky guys” but then you have to pivot to some low owned guys to separate yourself. Most top 10 lineups in GPPs are going to have a guy that is under 1% owned that smashed. Most are going to be in the 1-3% range. Looking back for PGA at the Memorial one of the winning GPP lineups had Ryan Palmer at 0.7% ownership. The week before at the Workday one of the winning lineups had Seiffert at 0.6% owned. Both of those lineups were “chalky” up top. When building lineups it is helpful to know who is going to be the “chalky” high owned plays and who you might like that is going to be the lower owned plays.

If you have a lineup that you are high on then I recommend playing it a few times and mixing in a couple low owned guys for the last spot or two. For example, let’s say your GPP has 50,000 entries and you are down to your last player that is $7,000 on DK. One of the guys is projected at 20% ownership and the other guy at 1%. If you go with the 20% guy (and most people do) that means you will be competing with 10,000 lineups if that guy goes off and smashes. So, if you pivot down to the 1% owned guy then you are only going up against 500 other lineups. Now if the 20% player just falls and let’s say he misses the cut that is 10,000 lineups of your 50,000 that are down a player. Take the edge in GPP and shoot for the top because that is where they hide all the money!

GOLFERS MOVING UP DUE TO LOW OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS:

DUSTIN JOHNSON – I didn’t expect to have DJ in the “Risers” section today but if he is projected at 10% less owned than Tony Finau then YES I’m going to go right back to him again. He is projected to be around 14-17% which is way under the 25% Tony Finau. DJ has hit 133.5 DK points on his win at the Travelers and 101 at the RBC so he has show a little bit more of a ceiling than Finau if you want to spend some salary on a high priced golfer.

5% - 10% Projected Ownership Guys I like:

CHASE SEIFFERT – Over the last 24 rounds he is 12th in T2G, 9th in approach and 13th in Par 5 scoring. He was in our article on Monday and should be a solid play this week!

SEAMUS POWER – He jumped out at me right after I posted the PGA article on Monday. I was going through the Cheatsheet and sorted by my “GPP Algo” and he came up at #5 and priced at only $6,500 so that was intriguing. He doesn’t have much history as he played on July 2nd and put up 90.5 DK points and then on February 6th for another 81 DK points. Huge returns on his price tag and it is an easy course! 25th in Par 5 scoring in his last 24 rounds.

RYAN ARMOUR – Not my favorite play but hitting 110.5 and 110 DK points in 2 of his last 3 we have to plug him into some lineups because that upside is there that we need for a GPP takedown.

LUKE LIST – Another guy that is not my favorite play but he has upside. We always see him climbing leaderboards and he is either chasing a top 10 or missing the cut. 9th and 24th in T2G and approach over his last 24 rounds and a weak field gives him an edge.

RICHY WERENSKI – He has the skills to put together a monster tournament. He is Mr. Consistent right now putting up 76-90 DK points across his last 3 events. At the Workday tourney he went was low at -5 but as high as +2 so expect some variance with his game as only 55% of his round are under par. He did start the Rocket Mortgage off at -5 and follow it up with a -6 before going par and -2. Great plug and play for cash and like him for GPPs mixed in.

TROY MERRITT – MC at Memorial but not a shocker with all the studs that were eliminated. Prior to that he put up 72, 102, 75 and 66 DK points and priced at only $7.5k. Stats are not great but he is racking up the points. Also he took 7th here last year!

ADAM SCHENK – 63% of rounds at par or lower and he has a handful of rounds hitting -4 and lower. Priced at $6,900 on DK he is worth a shot. He is coming off 30th and 39th place finishes AND he ranks 20th in Par 5 scoring and 9th in proximity shots of 200+ yards.

SCOTT STALLINGS – Love me some Stallings! Only $7,600 feels like a steal for him in this weak field. He has put up 78, 79, 104 and 73 DK points in his last 4 events. 75% of his rounds are below par since the return and he has even hit a -6 and -7 inside of the last 3 events he has played.

HENRIK NORLANDER – There is a group of golfers that I was finding in all my early builds and they are the Rooyen, Doc Redman, Norlander, Burns and List. After seeing the ownership numbers only Norlander and List are projected under 10% and the other guys are a hefty 20%-21%. That means I can take Norlander at 10% less ownership for GPPs. He is coming off 31st, 6th, 12th and 41st place finishes putting up a solid 71-89 DK points. He is also a stat monster ranking 14th in T2G, 17th in approach, 15th in P4 scoring and 13th in P5 scoring. Love some Norlander this week!

GUYS UNDER 3% OWNED THAT I LIKE TO MIX IN FOR GPPS:

KRISTOFFER VENTURA (3%) – The more I read about this guy the higher I am on him. I read an article on Action Network and they were talking about him so I started looking him up. He only has 1 tourney showing for the PGA tour since the return and he shot -3, -4, -4 and -2 and that was good for 84.5 DK poins! Wow! His last 5 finishes in all golf tournaments (includes Euro and the other tours) he has finishes of 8th, 21st, 49th, 4th, and 20th. I don’t know much about him and most people won’t but he is popping up all of the cheatsheets.

PETER UIHLEIN (2%) – I was debating whether or not to add him to the mix but I’ll go ahead and leave him in the pool. He has played 8 rounds of golf since the return and missed the cut twice. The cuts that he missed he was close. At the Rocket Mortgage he opened with a par round and then -2. At the RBC he opened with a terrible +4 but came back with a solid -3 but just wasn’t enough. The Charles Schwab he has 4 solid rounds shooting -1, -5, -1 and -3. That gives him 75% of his rounds played (which is 8) are under par. Compared to the other guys in his range he stands out above the rest. For example, Matthew NeSmith also at $6,900 on DK has 20% of his rounds below par and he has shot 10 rounds. Brice Garnett (whoever that is) has 38% of rounds below par and the famous Jason Dufner 33%. Worth a GPP dart for Uihlein!

PAT PEREZ (1.5%) – As of right now I don’t have any Perez in my 100 lineups I’ve built. I’m going to try to get some exposure. There just isn’t anything exciting about him right now. He is just the consistent 60-70 DK points and priced at $7,200 that is around 9x-10x which is good but not amazing. He took 53rd here last year and is coming off 39th and 45th place finishes.

BRANDON HAGY (1%) – We have only seen him play at the Rocket Mortgage where he shot -5, -4, +1 and -3 and that was good for 83 DK points. Priced at $6,700 on DK that is great upside.

AUSTIN COOK (<1%) – Something about Cook just speaks to me. I can’t tell you what or why but I have a good feeling on him this week. He has put up 68-80 DK points across his last 3 tournaments and priced UNDER $7k this week on DK. I really can’t find any stats to back up my “feeling” on Cook. He is 137th in T2G and 129th in approach over his last 24 rounds so we are not going to find them there! At the Workday he did shot -2, -2 and -3 with a +3 mixed into round 3. The tourney before he went as low as -6 and as high as par. 64% of rounds are below par, GPP only, not for cash games.

PETER MALNATI (<1%) – To find Malnati you have to go into the cheatsheet and sort by price and scroll down. Yes, keep scrolling. Scroll some more and you’ll find him down there at $6,200 on DK. Malnati is a great PUNT if you want to stack the top end of your lineups. He took 46th here last year and has put up 68 and 69 points in 2 of his last 4 events. I mean that is just over 10x value on a $6.2 golfer, worth a dart in this weak field, right?

SEUNG-YUL NOH (<1%) – Priced at a low $6,600 on DK and projected to be owned at about a half a percent we get a guy who MC at the Workday but his prior two he put up 81.5 and 91.5 DK points. These guys are all risk/reward plays for GPPs and that is what we are looking for. 91 DK points on $6.6k is 13.7x value, that is a great ceiling to shoot for with a weak field such as this. To get 13.7x value on Tony Finau you need 150 DK points.

ALEXANDER NOREN (<1%) – Stats are not great but that is because I am basically pulling last 24 and 36 rounds. Noren is the 125th ranked golfer in the world and even though he has been struggling he is great on approach shots (16th) and par 5 scoring (21st). He has missed his last two cuts. Looking back he did hit 104 DK points at the RBC and before the layoff he hit 90 at Pebble Beach and 135 at the AMMEX. If a golfer has done it in the past I feel better about them breaking out than someone who has never done it before. Ownership is just way too low for a guy with this much talent!

GOLFERS MOVING DOWN DUE TO HIGH OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS:

TONY FINAU – He is projected to be the highest owner golfer at close to 22%-25% and for good reason. The course fits him well and he is coming off a solid finish at the Memorial and he finished 23rd here last year. The only reason I have him in the “faller” category is because of his price tag of $10,900 combined with 25% ownership means you need 10x or better to get ahead of the field. He is only going to do that with a top 5 finish or possibly a “Win”. Now if you are confident he can crush the tourney that is fine and go ahead and play him. But his recent performances he has only put up 85, 85, 37, 88 and 83 DK points and that is only giving you around 8.0-8.3x value his current price tag. He is a GREAT cash play for double ups but not the edge we need in GPPs.

LUCAS GLOVER & HARRIS ENGLISH – Don’t get me wrong they are still in my player pool but projected at 23-25% I will be lower than the field because it is hard to get an edge on a player that is that high owned.

OTHER GOLFERS IN THE LOW 20% RANGE: Sam Burns, Doc Redman, Erik Van Rooyen and Paul Casey. I will have some Sammy Burns I don’t care what his ownership is that guy is a stud and my hero! With the WEAK FIELD you have to pick some of these guys and mix them into your lineups so pick and choose and don’t go for all of them in the same line!

GENERAL TIPS FOR LINEUP BUILDING:

When building your lineups I am not telling you NOT to play Tony Finau. My point is that if you are playing 1 lineup in a HUGE GPP field such as the Milly Maker then don’t play Tony Finau. The reason that most people don’t understand is that someone is likely doing 150 max entries and if they love Finau they will have every possible combination of players with him and your 1 lineup is not likely to beat their generated pool. Now if you are playing cash games (50/50’s, triple ups, H2Hs) then yes don’t worry about ownerships and build the best possible lineup. If you are playing high owned players (over 20% for example) then you really have to pivot on the low end if you want to try to win the GPP. Now, if you are just trying to “profit” then find 3-4 core guys and then build around them. The idea behind this is that if your core does well you will put several lineups “in-the-money” and that is a profitable process. You might not win the GPP but if you are making money and entertaining yourself then it is worthwhile!

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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