MLB DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
We are going to focus on some daily fantasy stacks for tonight and some hitters that I fell in love with during my season long drafts that are priced way to cheap for the DFS slate ahead! Hope everyone had a good Mothers Day yesterday!
DAILY FANTASY TEAM STACKS:
CINCY vs. MITCH KELLER (5TH BULLPEN)
Vegas implied run total only 4.1 runs so hopefully there is some lower ownership here. CIN has been awful on the road with a 5-9 record and a wRC+ of 62.3. The runs per game at home is 6.88 and on the road only 2.86 so this is a GPP only stack. You can get this stack for 4060 – 4480 per hitter which is a solid price point.
WEATHER: Wind blowing OUT at around 8 mph.
PITCHER BREAKDOWN: Mitch Keller has an ERA of 6.29 with 24.1 IP this year with an xFIP of 5.00. What jumps out is the WHIP of 1.68 which is astronomical and that can lead to trouble. He is allowing a .268 batting average. He throws a fastball 58% of the time and CIN ranks 3rd best vs. FB pitches. He is struggling vs. LHH where is allows a .294 batting average.
Focus on these hitters:
Jesse Winker – batting .354 and 2 for 3 of Keller.
Nick Castellanos – batting .316 and 3 for 8 off Keller with a HR.
Tyler Naquin – batting .271 but holding a solid .293 wOBA vs. RHP and priced at only 3900 on DK he really lowers the stack price and he is a LHH.
Screen shot breakdown of CINCY:
BOSOX vs JORGE LOPEZ (14TH BULLPEN)
Vegas implied run total of 4.8 so probably one of the chalkier stacks. Boston is now at an average of 5+ runs per game home and away so I don’t worry about the split. Stack cost is 4460 – 4880 so on the mid-upper tier as far as pricing. But they have been hot. Two hitters grade above 90 on our MLB Cheatsheet and we will discuss them below.
WEATHER: Wind 9 mph left to right
PITCHER BREAKDOWN: Jorge Lopez is an average to below average pitcher. He has an ERA of 6.49 with an xFIP of 4.35. If you are not familiar with xFIP think of this as what their ERA “should be” without other factors playing a part. This is more of a play “on Boston” as opposed to against Lopez. He did allow a .297 opponent batting average through the shortened 2020 season.
Focus on these hitters:
J.D. Martinez – GRADE 95 – batting a whopping .333 this year he went 13th overall in my MLB season long draft last night. He has a .493 wOBA this year vs. RHP and averaging double digit fantasy points per game over the last 14 days.
Xander Bogaerts – GRADE 93 – batting .349 with a .439 wOBA vs. RHP he is also sitting a double digit average points per game over the last two weeks.
*** You can wrap this stack with Rafael Devers (4300 DK) and Alex Verdugo (4100 DK) and lower the cost of the above hitters. Hunter Renfroe (3000 DK) is an interesting 5th player for the stack as he has started to get a little hot under the radar putting up 14, 10 and 7 DKP over the last 3 games.
Screen shot breakdown for Boston:
SAN DIEGO PADRES vs. ANTONIO SENZATELA (29TH BULLPEN)
Vegas implied run total of 5.7 runs is surely to be chalky! Padres are hitting .329 off Senza through 76 Abs with a low 17% strikeout rate. Padres are 10-6 on the road with a wRC+ of 104.5 and a team batting average that is 35 points higher.
WEATHER: Wind blowing right to left at 9mph with a 65% chance of rain so watch the status of this game incase of a PPD.
PITCHER BREAKDOWN: Antonio Senzatela is allowing a .298 batting average this year with a 1.55 whip and the 29th bullpen behind him. Hard not to like pieces of this game. Padres rank 8th and 7th vs. his top two pitch types.
Focus on these hitters:
Trent Grisham – hitting .293, .210 ISO vs. RHP which is 2nd highest on the team behind Tatis and he is on an 8.8 DKP per game average over the last week.
Eric Hosmer – hitting .307 with the 2nd lowest K rate on the team and 5 for 16 off Senza in his career.
Jake Croneworth – hitting .279 this year with a .174 ISO and that is good for 3rd highest on the team and priced at a fair 4400 on DK.
Screen shot below shows our Padres matchup breakdown and some of the key things that jumped out at me that we discussed above.
TEXAS RANGERS vs ALEX WOOD (20TH BULLPEN)
Vegas implied run total of only 3.2 runs so surely this has little to no ownership on it! Alex Wood is one of the top pitching plays on this short slate. Now if he picks up the high ownership that we think he will and Texas goes off then it’s two-fold because you get a dirt check low owned stack and you crush everyone playing Alex Wood. If you run 10 lineups I would run at least 1 Texas stack against Wood for GPP. Texas is averaging a solid 5 runs per game on the road this year and they are 3rd in HRs over the last 14 days and 2nd in wRC+. And the cost you ask? CHEAP! You can stack them for 3720 – 3920 per hitter, that is almost min pricing! Come over here to aisle 7 and get the “discounted Rangers on clearance”, lol.
WEATHER: Wind blowing out at 9mph – Oh yes!
PITCHER BREAKDOWN: Alex Wood has been great this year. He is a LHP with a 1.96 ERA and xFIP of 2.81 allowing a low .163 batting average and 0.78 whip. Great stats! Even Jacob DeGrom will have a blow up game and Alex Wood is hardly in the same tier as DeGrom. Alex Wood has a BABIP of only 0.196 which is really low so this means he has been lucky with his balls in play. BABIP below .230 and above .360 are numbers that draw my attention.
Focus on these hitters:
Adolos Garcia – Have you seen this guy? He looks like Frank Thomas, He was the 8th best OF as of last night when I drafted another season long league and I was able to snag him in the 14th or 15th round. He is batting .297 this year with an ISO of .306 vs. LHP and his 3200 DK price is criminal! His recent games in terms of DK points he has put up 28, 24, 8, 7, 5, 24 and 18 and he is NEAR MIN PRICE! I’ll take that as a one of hitter in another stack anyday of the week! He will be a 4500 hitter in a couple weeks so get some exposure now! This guy is a monster!
Isiah Kiner-Falefa – hitting .290 he has 17, 14, 5 and 10 DKP in his last 4.
Nick Solak – hitting .277 with a .222 ISO vs. LHP and sitting about 7.5 DKP per game over the last two weeks with 15 and 17 DKP in 2 of the last 3 games.
Nate Lowe – hitting .287 with 10, 12 and 14 DKP in his last 3. ISO is low vs. LHP but he is also fairly cheap.
Screen shot below is our DK Points per game over the last 16 days. Look at this Adolis fire!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze