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April 19th - Stacks, Algo Hitters & Sneaky Pitchers from CheatSheetPros!


MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!

For the premium members and people taking advantage of the free sheets on Thursdays I wanted to let you know that I’ve updated the algo. I wanted to take into account how the pitcher is doing vs. RHH and vs. LHH and bring that over to the hitter algo scoring model. I will continue to monitor and report back the results for everyone!


5 TOP ALGO HITTERS & ANALYSIS:

Cody Bellinger (5600) – Expensive but worth it. Averaging 15.7 FPPG he is facing Chacin who has been pretty solid vs. RHH but vs. LHH like Bellinger it’s another story. Here are his splits so far this year with LHH first and RHH second. xFIP 7.57 vs. 3.56 – solid vs. RHH but this is terrible to LHH. K9 rate is 4.3 vs. 10.6 – dominating some RHH but vs. LHH he is having a hard time getting them out. wOBA is .344 to LHH and .308 vs. RHH. Bellinger also has a .491 batting average vs. RHP vs. only .286 to LHP. He also boasts a monsterous .646 wOBA vs. RHP vs. only .372 vs. LHP. His OBP is also .578 vs. .318. Bellinger has been smashing RHP this year! BVP he is 5 for 14 with 2 HR which is good for a .357 batting average vs. Chacin.


Kolten Wong (4400) – Wong is facing Vargas who had a 7.13 xFIP on the road last year. Wong is off to a solid start with a 10.17 FPPG average which is good for about 2.3x his salary. No BVP data vs. Vargas. This is a LHP vs. LHH matchup. Vargas is going to put a couple of these guys on the top charts today as his numbers are terrible. Let’s take a look at his splits so far this year with LHH listed first. xFIP: 10.9 vs. 7.47, K9 0 vs. 5.4, WHIP 3.00 vs. 2.80, Allowed batting average: .429 vs. .440, wOBA: .504 vs. .536.


Paul DeJong (4900) – I like DeJong a little better than Wong since it’s a RvL matchup. So let’s take a look at DeJong. 10.9 FPPG average and no BVP data. He is hitting .364 vs. LHP with a .485 wOBA, .455 ISO and a huge 27.3% strikeout rate. Great for a GPP play and to fit into a stack! (See above for Vargas stats under Kolten Wong)


Jorge Polanco (4800) – He is having a solid year and I only know about him because I was digging around for a SS in my season long league and his stats were solid. Now he is popping up on the new algo. He is facing Alex Cobb who doesn’t have a ton of stats yet but struggling vs. LHH and with Polanco being a switch hitter he jumped up the chart for us. Polanco vs. RHP has a .408 batting average, .506 wOBA and a low 15.8% strikeout rate.


Anthony Rendon (5300) – Coming in at #5 Rendon is facing Caleb Smith. This is also a LvR matchup. Rendon is on a nice 13.47 FPPG average this year and smashing LHP. He has a .400 average, .623 wOBA and low 15.4% strikeout rate vs. LHP. His ISO is also off the charts at .700 vs LHP and a normal .357 vs. RHP. No BVP data vs. Smith.


TOP PITCHERS & ANALYSIS:

JUSTIN VERLANDER (10400) – About as solid as they come. He is facing a TEX team that is striking out 25% of the time. Verlander should be a solid 2-2.5x play tonight. You are paying for his floor and I don’t think he will be in the winning GPP lineup tonight. I would use for cash but get a little crazier for GPP. He is coming off a solid 36.3 point game vs. SEA where he went 6.0 with 11 Ks but he faced TEX at the beginning of April and got tagged for 4 ER in 4.0 innings.


MAD BUM (9500) – I can’t believe his price tag is this high. At this point I would find a way to pay up for Verlander. SFG have a dominant bullpen so he MadBum can exit with the lead they should hold onto the win. He is priced up for the matchup. PIT is striking out 30.1% of the time vs. LHP (2nd highest on the slate) so YES this is a good matchup for MadBum. They also have a low .212 team batting average, .250 wOBA and wRC+ of 51.2 vs. LHP. Numbers indicate he could have a monster game tonight.


CORY KLUBER (9000) – This is a nice low price tag for a player that was $11k a lot of last year. So far this year he just has not been able to put it together so I’m going to fade him tonight. He has -4.6 points vs. KC, 26.7 vs. DET (who is terrible) and then 0.90 vs. CWS (who aren’t that great) and 18 points vs. MIN (who also aren’t that great). 2 of his 4 starts he lasted 3.1 innings or less. ATL is a much better team than any of his prior opponents so I’d likely pass unless you are taking a dart in a GPP.


GERMAN MARQUEZ (8500) – Freeland tossed a great game last night in Colorado can Marquez do it too? He is coming off a 46 point game vs. SF where he went the full 9.0 innings and 9 Ks and only allowed a single hit with 0 ER. He has 3 road starts that are 46, 26 and 25.9 DK points and his lone home starts vs. ATL he gave up 5 ER in 5.0 innings. Use with caution but the upside is there!


ANIBAL SANCHEZ (8100) – I was to throw up just writing this. He is coming off 2.2, 13.3 and 11 point starts and priced up to $8.1k. Yuck! However if you like at those starts he faced PHILLY twice and PIT. He lasted 7.0 innings vs. PIT with only 2 ER but only had 2 Ks. Now he gets to face MIA who is striking out 30.7% of the time vs. RHP (highest team on the slate). They also hold a terrible .204 team batting average. Anibal has not had a solid game this year but has a dream matchup vs. MIA. His numbers are skewed after facing a red hot Phillies lineup twice. Use for GPP if you dare!


FAVORITE PLAY: JORDAN LYLES (7900) – Ok now that I’m done throwing up let’s get behind Lyles and save some money! He is facing a SFG team that has a 25.8% strikeout rate, .179 batting average and low .242 wOBA vs. RHP this year. They also support the 2nd lowest wRC+ vs. Pitcher Hand on the slate at 46.8! Lyles faced a terrible CIN team to start the year and went 5.0 with 0 ER and only 2 Ks – blah! But then he came back in his 2nd start to face CHC and went 6.0 with 1 ER and 10 Ks! - YEAH BABY! Use for CASH or GPP. I think I like him even more now after writing about him!


FAVORITE PLAY: TOUKI TOUSSAINT (7300) – Getting the start today this guy has swing and miss stuff. He started on 4/13 and went 6.0 innings and only gave up 4 hits, 0 ER and 7 Ks. Wow! Looking back into last year he also posted solid numbers with about a K per inning or slightly higher. I’m assuming he is going to be lower owned because most people don’t know who he is and Fantasy Cruncher has him as their 12th value pitcher on the slate which isn’t good. Facing Cleveland they are getting better after starting the year off terribly. They have a 26.5% team strikeout rate and team .207 batting average. This gives our Touki, I just love saying “Touki” in my head a solid floor. You can pair Touki and Lyles and have plenty of money over to stack any hitters you want. Let’s go Touki!


TEAM STACKS AND PITCHERS TO ATTACK!

When running my daily swinging strike rate report there were 5 pitchers that graded at the bottom with monster line drive rates (which means they are getting hit hard) and very low swinging strike rates. Now combine pitchers who can’t throw swing and miss stuff that are getting hit hard and those are teams I initially want to look at to stack.


HOUSTON vs. DREW SMYLY – Houston boasts a low 19.9% team strikeout rate and solid .313 team batting average vs. LHP. Smyly has given up a 6.97 xFIP to LHH this year and 5.67 to RHH. .376 and .378 wOBAs. Houston hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse to start the year but look at (Springer, Altuve, Correa and Yuli) to build around in this stack.


ST.LOUIS vs. JASON VARGAS – St.Louis has struggled vs. LHP but look at Vargas stats - xFIP: 10.9 vs. 7.47, K9 0 vs. 5.4, WHIP 3.00 vs. 2.80, Allowed batting average: .429 vs. .440, wOBA: .504 vs. .536. I think this is their breakout game vs. LHP. Vargas lasted just 0.1 innings vs. ATL giving up 4 ER and 3 BB, then 1.0 innings vs. MIN giving up another 4 ER. <DeJong, Wong, Carpenter, Goldy are all in play here.>


CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs. Zimmerman – Zimmerman didn’t pop on our sheet as a pitcher to stack against but when looking through out Daily Stacks tab they have a top 4 hitters with 2.15x value at 4275 average price and that jumps out at me. Zimmerman hasn’t been great this year and susceptible to getting throttled. You can take these hitters: #2) Yoan Moncada .427 wOBA 10.9 FPPG $4,700 - #3) Jose Abreu .302 wOBA 7.2 FPPG only $3,900 - <personally I’m skipping Alonso> #5 Eloy .386 wOBA 6.6 FPPG for only $3,800 and #6 Red Hot Tim Anderson .474 wOBA 12.1 FPPG for $4,700!


Screen shot of the swinging strike, LD% and xFIP report I run most days:


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