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bathrobeDFS April 7th MLB Breakdown!



Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings.


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Main Slate

Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)

Twins vs Phillies - 105pm

Jose Berrios, RHP - 1-0, 14.7 IP, 1.84 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 1 BB, 14 K

Zach Eflin, RHP - 1-0, 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1 BB, 9 K

Vegas Line: 8, PHI -125

Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing out to Center at 7mph

Yankees vs Orioles - 105pm

Domingo German, RHP - 1-0, 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5 BB, 7 K

David Hess, RHP - 1-0, 8.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 3 BB, 10 K

Vegas Line: 8.5, NYY -185

Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing out to LF at 10mph. Boost to RHB.

Nationals vs Mets - 110pm

Max Scherzer, RHP - 0-2, 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 4 BB, 21 K

Zack Wheeler, RHP - 0-0, 5.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1 BB, 7 K

Vegas Line: 6.5, WAS -134

Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the low 60s. Winds blowout out at 9mph.

Royals vs Tigers - 110pm

Brad Keller, RHP - 1-0, 13.0 IP, 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 5 BB, 10 K

Tyson Ross, RHP - 1-0, 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4 BB, 4 K

Vegas Line: 8.5, KC -115

Weather: Overcast and Warm. Temps around 60. Winds blowing in at 10mph. Slight boost to pitchers

Blue Jays vs Indians - 110pm

Marcus Stroman, RHP - 0-1, 12.7 IP, 1.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5 BB, 12 K

Mike Clevinger, RHP - 0-0, 7.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 3 BB, 12 K

Vegas Line: 7.5, CLE -141

Weather: Overcast and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing out at 8mph.

Marlins vs Braves - 120pm

Caleb Smith, LHP - 0-0, 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1 BB, 8 K

Sean Newcomb, LHP - 0-0, 4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, 4 BB, 3 K

Vegas Line: 8, ATL -159

Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Hot. Temps Near 80 at the end of the game. Winds blowing in at 6mph.

Reds vs Pirates - 135pm

Anthony DeSclafani, RHP - 0-0, 5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3 BB, 8 K

Chris Archer, RHP - 0-0, 5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 8 K

Vegas Line: 8, PIT -131

Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing in around 7mph

A’s vs Astros - 210pm

Mike Fiers, RHP - 2-1, 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 5 BB, 8 K

Brad Peacock, RHP - 1-0, 6.2 IP, 1.35 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, 0 BB, 5 K

Vegas Line: 9, HOU -172

Weather: DOME

Mariners vs White Sox - 210pm

Wade LeBlanc, LHP - 1-0, 5.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 3 BB, 1 K

Ivan Nova, RHP - 0-0, 7.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1 BB, 4 K

Vegas Line: 9, Pick Em

Weather: Overcast and Cool. Temps in the mid 50s. 40% chance of Rain. Winds blowing in at 11mph. Boost to pitchers.

Cubs vs Brewers - 210pm

Kyle Hendricks, RHP - 0-1, 4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 4 K

Zach Davies, RHP - 0-0, 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4 BB, 6 K

Vegas Line: 9, Pick Em

Weather: DOME

Padres vs Cardinals - 215pm

Matt Strahm, LHP - 0-1, 2.2 IP, 16.88 ERA, 4.12 WHIP, 3 BB, 2 K

Adam Wainwright, RHP - 0-0, 4.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 3 K

Vegas Line: 9, Pick Em

Weather: Partly Cloudy and Hot. Temps around 80 by the end of the game. Winds blowing out at 13mph. Nice boost to hitters.


Pitchers

Great Pitchers (w/ Ownership Projections)

Jose Berrios (10100, RHP) at PHI - Berrios is an amazing pitcher. Even last game, when he looked about as bad as he could, he still got you 7 IP with 7 H, 0 BB and 3 ER. While you don’t want to pay 10k for that, it also isn’t bad enough it will eliminate you from cashing (like a negative score from an ace would). I would expect him to have a better time of it in much better weather, going against a Phillies team that has some strikeouts in it. This would get even better if the Phillies play a “Sunday lineup” where they rest a couple of their big stars.

Max Scherzer (11900, RHP) at NYM - Remember like 4 days ago when one of the aces was 10400 and I said “soon they will be 12k-13k and we will fondly look back on those halcyon days”? Well that came a lot faster than I thought. While you can play Scherzer any time he pitches, playing him means you either have to punt a pitcher, or play some weak ass bats. It’s going to take some real value to open up tomorrow morning when the lineups come out for us to put together a really fantastic lineup with Scherzer without punting. Still, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game, consistently, and you have to pay a premium for premium quality.

Zack Wheeler (9000, RHP) vs WAS - I will keep fighting for how good Zack Wheeler is. He was the 2nd best pitcher in baseball after the all star break last season. He has incredible talent and, against a Nats lineup without, at least, Trea, I expect him to far exceed his previous outing, There’s a reason this game has an O/U of 6.5. There aren’t going to be a ton of runs score. You can get a great pitcher for pretty cheap, especially considering he’s the 6th most expensive SP on this slate and the odds are pretty good he’s not the 6th highest scoring.

Mike Clevinger (9900, RHP) vs TOR - This might be one of the last times this season we can get Clevinger under 10k. It’s not MUCH under 10k, sure. But technically correct is the best type of correct after all. In my preview, I talked about how he is a dominant pitcher that strikes out a ton of people. Well in 7 IP in his first start, he only gave up 1 hit and struck out 12. Hot damn. He might have the highest score on the slate when all is said and done, and he’s 2k cheaper than Scherzer.

Brad Peacock (8800, RHP) vs OAK - While he didn’t show it in his first start, Peacock is a dominant, high strikeout pitcher. While this is a powerful As lineup, it also strikes out the 2nd least in the MLB this season. I’m sure that’s going to slightly lower his upside but then you realize that he only got 5 K in 6.2 IP last start and he still got you 26 DKP. Peacock may not be the safest of the great pitchers, but he has just as high a ceiling, at the cheapest price.


Good Pitchers

Marcus Stroman (7100, RHP) at CLE - I am not prepared to put Stroman in the Great tier, but he sure has looked it so far. Even with a relatively poor outing last game against the O’s, he pitched around not having his best stuff and still managed to put his team in a position to win. So far he has been putting up about a K an inning, and he gets to take on a floundering Indians offense. At this price, I will take a chance he gets you the 20 DKP you would be really happy with, knowing he really has the upside for 30 DKP. Something you really won’t find in a lot of people at this price.

Chris Archer (9300, RHP) vs CIN - I will start this off by saying that Archer would be a much, much better play if he was cheaper. On this slate, there are a lot of other plays that could really hit, and Archer is priced more than a LOT of them. Sure he had a great first start against STL, giving up only 2 hits, with 3 BB in 5 IP striking out 8. But I can get 20 DKP from someone priced 7k. Still, that being said, Archer is a good pitcher against a poor lineup that has some strikeouts in it. So if you want to go there, or make sure you get some in your MME, I am all for it. I just think there’s better options for the price.


Great Spots

Domingo German (9400, RHP) at BAL - In my Preview, I talked about how German is a high strikeout pitcher that has a hard time keeping people off base otherwise. He gives up a bunch of walks, especially, inflating his WHIP. We saw this exact thing in his first start when he went 5 IP and walked 5, striking out 7, but only giving up 1 hit and 0 ER. While this may pose a larger issue against more seasoned lineups, he should have no problem with a poor Orioles team that isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. He’s expensive, but he has incredible upside. If he could not walk everyone, we could see him get 7 IP and 10+ K here.

Sean Newcomb (8700, LHP) vs MIA - I don’t like Newcomb that much. I WILL like him in the future, but he just isn’t there yet. If you read my article on the 1st, when he got his first start of the year, I talked about how he just gives up too many walks and hits. He gets Ks, sure, but he can’t get out of his own way, and he has a ton of trouble finding his control. Well, against the Cubs that day, it took Newcomb 91 pitches to get through 4 IP. He walked 4, gave up 4 hits, and struck out only 3. He somehow didn’t allow a run, though. And that was against the Cubs. If he could find slightly more control, imagine what he could do against this Marlins team??


GPP Plays

Brad Keller (7200, RHP) at DET - Keller is someone who will strikeout less than 9 per 9, but he has incredible ground ball stuff. He showed that on both opening day and in his last start when he induced 10 ground ball outs with 5 Ks. The difference was, in his 2nd start, he couldn’t find his control and he walked 4 batters, which, as is often the case, led to runs. If he can work the strike zone and keep his pitches down in the zone again, he could have another 25+ DKP day against a decent-but-not-great Tigers squad. It’s not the safest play by any means, but it is certainly worth a GPP chance given the price, and what playing him will open up (even though he is more expensive than Stroman somehow).

Caleb Smith (7900, LHP) at ATL - The Braves are a good offense. I can’t deny that. But Caleb Smith is a really good pitcher. If you watched his start against the Mets (which I did), you saw someone with just easy strike out stuff that is murder on LHB and isn’t too much easier against RHB when his breaking stuff is on. This will help to somewhat neutralize Freeman and Markakis, and it pushes McCann and Inciarte out of the lineup. While there are some cheaper folks I like a little better, he is still a hell of a GPP play with incredible K upside no one else will be on.

Matthew Strahm (6400, LHP) at STL - I was all over Strahm in his first start. If you go back and read, you can see why. Dude was dominant coming up, has killer stuff, and was in a fantastic matchup. Of course, the first start is always a tough one and he got flamed. I mean 5 ER in 2.2 IP with 3 BB and 8 Hits. It was HORRIBLE. But, that being said, I will go right back there today as a GPP play. Nothing I wrote last time is any less true, he just had a horrible go of it last time. I will bet on him living up to his talent level a little more. I mean, when someone that was 9200 is 6400 the next start, there is some ability to really get yourself over the field in GPPs by riding the wave of recency bias.

No Thanks

Kyle Hendricks (7000, RHP) at MIL - Hendricks is a great real-life pitcher, but he doesn’t strike anyone out. While we may be able to use him on other, smaller slates, we don’t want to go there on a slate with this many games, even at this price, especially against a tough Brewers offense.


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)

Yankees vs David Hess (RHP, @BAL) - I don’t really care that the Blue Jays made David Hess look like a Cy Young winner his last time out. They did that against a lot of bad pitchers to start the season off. Last year Hess had a WHIP of 1.38 and a HR/9 of 1.9 with a K/9 of 6. He should get eaten up here.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 9

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: After Judge (OF - 5600), start at the top and work your way down.

Twins vs Zach Eflin (RHP, @PHI) - Zach Eflin is a very underrated pitcher. He showed what he could do to a righty heavy lineup last game against the Nats when he struck out 9 in 5 IP, giving up 0 runs. The problem is the Twins are projected to have 5 lefties tomorrow, some of which can do real damage. While I expect Eflin to be relatively popular at this price, the smarter play is to take the LHB against him in a smaller stack.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Mini - LHB

Preferred Players: Kepler (OF - 4200), Polanco (SS - 4000), Rosario (OF - 4300), Marwin Gonzalez (3B - 4100), Castro (C - 3400)

Royals vs Tyson Ross (RHP, @DET) - The last time Tyson Ross was in the AL, he was a member of the Texas Rangers in 2017 where he was so horrible at the beginning of the year, he only got 10 starts before they pulled him altogether. He had a 6.18 FIP and 1.837 WHIP. His BB/9 was 6.8. While last season he got that down, it was down to 3.7 which is still awful. And pitching in SD and STL are going to be a lot different than moving back to the AL. It’s also worth noting that his bread and butter is his slider, which makes him devastating to RHB, but also makes him an extreme splits pitcher, giving up a BA/OPS of .176/.565 to RHB and .294/848 to LHB last season. And that was a good year. If you play RHB, you are counting on some bullpen runs.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 8

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHP ONLY

Preferred Players: Mondesi (SS - 4600), O'Hearn (1B - 3700)... Gordon (OF - 3500), Hamilton (OF - 3900). Check the lineup in the morning and play all the LHB

Pirates vs Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, CIN) - Regardless of him relative success against the Brewers in his first start, I find it exceedingly hard to trust DeSclafani. After missing his age 27 season, he came back in 2018 with 21 GS, putting up a 4.83 FIP with a 1.287 WHIP. He gave up a 9.2 H/9, 1.9 HR/9 (holy SHIT), 2.3 BB/9, and a decent 8.5 K/9, though that was far an away his career high, and almost a full K over his career average. I mean, he gave up 24 HR and 30 BB. That is insane. Now, let’s get even crazier- his OPS to RHB was .676. That means that, against LHB his OPS was a stunning .917. 30 of the 233 PAs by lefties resulted in an XBH. That is really astounding. So, unless he turns it around completely, make sure you don’t play him and you do everything you can to target any and all LHB you can against him until he loses his job.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Mini - LHB only

Preferred Players: Frazier (2B - 3900), Bell (1B - 3900), Melky (OF - 3800), Shuck (OF - 3400)

White Sox vs Wade LeBlanc (LHP, SEA) - Sometimes I will want to go against LeBlanc. Sometimes I will just want go avoid him. This is one of those times I will go against him LeBlanc doesn’t strike anyone out. While he normally is fine at limiting baserunners, against an underrated White Sox offense against LHB, I think we can find a sneaky stack here that a lot of people will not be on

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 3

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start with Abreu (1B - 4200), Moncada (3B - 4500), and Eloy (OF - 4300), then start at the top and work your way down

Mariners vs Ivan Nova (RHP, @CHW) - Some things are just pretty damn simple. Ivan Nova is a terrible pitcher who can’t keep people off the bases and then gives up a ton of HRs. You can stack against him any time he pitches, regardless of who he is playing.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 6

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB

**Preferred Players: Smith (OF - 4200), Bruce (OF - 4100), Narvaez (C - 3400), then start at the top and work down. **

Cubs vs Zach Davies (RHP, @MIL) - Zach Davies is another pitcher that we are generally going to stack against every time he pitches, especially when his opponent is a legitimately good offense. He gives up a TON of baserunners and his career best HR/9 was 1.1. In Miller Park, the ball should be flying here, and the Cubs are one of the best stacks on the slate.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 9

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down

Astros vs Mike Fiers (RHP, OAK) - Man, just when I was getting super tired, things get super easy. Fiers is horrible. He lets a TON of people on base. And he gives up an absolute fuckload of HR. The Astros are the best stack on the slate, as far as I’m concerned.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

**Preferred Players: Start at the top and go down in order. **

Padres vs The Ghost of Adam Wainwright (RHP, @STL) - Wainwright is not who he was. He is one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now, and it’s sad to see. In his last start against the Pirates, he only got through 4 IP, giving up 4 hits, 4 ER, 4 walks and, of course, 3 K. for 2.2 DKP and 1 happy bathrobe cause I stacked the Pirates. Tonight I will do the same against Waino with the Padres.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Everyone that is breathing for the Padres

One-Off Batters

Goldschmidt (1B - 4700) - While I do have faith that Strahm rebounds, he is also a LHP going against Goldie, which means Goldie should be 5500 and the fact he’s not means we are going to make some money playing him tonight, even as a one off.


HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Fernando Tatis, Jr.


While I would normally go into both the 3 game afternoon slate and the showdown for tonight, I also have a 14 game slate for the NBA that I have to have done by about 1pm tomorrow, so I have to get to work on that ASAP. Best of luck everyone!!

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