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bathrobeDFS Breakdown 4/09/2019!



Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings.

Join us on FLICK an awesome chat app for your cell phone! Here is our link - https://flickchat.page.link/VnJBhbF75TtAjN1J8 - Yesterday we were all over Mancinni in the chat and I had the pop up HR notification before I got downstairs to eat!


Early Slate

Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)

Indians vs Tigers - 110pm

Corey Kluber, RHP - 0-2, 10.1 IP, 5.23 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 4 BB, 9 K

Jordan Zimmermann, RHP - 0-0, 13.2 IP, 0.66 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 1 BB, 10 K

Vegas Info: 7.5, CLE -156

Weather: Clear and Warmish. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out at 15 mph. Big boost to bats.


Blue Jays vs Red Sox - 205pm

Matt Shoemaker, RHP - 2-0, 14.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 3 BB, 15 K

Chris Sale, LHP - 0-2, 9.0 IP, 8.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4 BB, 5 K

Vegas Info: 8, BOS -220

Weather: Overcast and Cool. Temps in the mid 40s. Winds blowing in at 10mph. Boost to pitchers.


Rays vs White Sox - 210pm

Charlie Morton, RHP - 1-0, 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 14 K

Ervin Santana, RHP, SEASON DEBUT

Vegas Info: 8.5, TB -152

Weather: Clear and Warmish. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out at 10mph. Small boost to bats.


Pitchers

Great Pitchers

Corey Kluber (9400, RHP) at DET - Wow. What a steal for Kluber. I know his first 2 starts haven’t exactly lit the world on fire, but, honestly, do yourself a favor and look through ALL the game notes right now (if you know baseball). Take a look at all of those ace pitchers, and the numbers they are putting up. Kluber is not alone in his futility so far on the season. But it doesn’t matter. Like I noted about Verlander yesterday, all this does is lower this price and make people less likely to play him. He is going against a bad Detroit team. I would expect him to get back to the 7 IP, 7-8 K, with almost no hits, runs, or walks. At that price, given his immense talent, I don’t know how you don’t go all in on Kluber on this 3 game slate. You can even pair him with another good pitcher and still fit in some good bats.


Charlie Morton (9000, RHP) at CWS - Morton is a great pitcher, and I think he’s going to fly under the radar a lot because he moved to TB. But he is still going to get a ton of strikeouts, and be able to limit runs and baserunners. While I wish he were more of a sure thing to get to 100 pitches, he is easily one of my favorite pitchers on this short slate.


Great Pitcher???

Chris Sale (10700, LHP) vs TOR - Ah. I’m sure among people that pay really, really close attention to baseball there’s a debate brewing. Has Sale lost it? I have talked so many times now about the metaphorical cliff that a lot of pitchers fall off - where they are cy young starters one season and, as quickly as the next spring, are barely functional major leaguers. While this may seem like some kind of exaggeration, the worry is real after Sale posted the lowest Velocity of his career last start.. He only got 1 K and never got over 90 mph?? He only got 5 swinging strikes in 87 pitches? He has thrown 59 fastballs this season and gotten ZERO swings and misses?? That should concern anyone, as far as I’m concerned. But Should It??, The Boston Globe asked. Pitching coach Dana LeVangie said that Sale was throwing slower by design - he was basically just building himself up (which you can see he does every season). Former all-star Brad Lidge said that was bullshit, though, arguing the Sox have reason to be concerned. All in all, I don’t know about you, but I am still fine taking the chance on Sale. Odds are I won’t. And if I only play one lineup, I probably will not play him. But uncertainty lowers ownership and price and you could get Sale for far too cheap and low owned, especially on a 3 game slate. This one is going to come down to how much risk you want for the price.


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)


Indians vs Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, @DET) - Just like a lot of really good pitchers have started out the year badly, a lot of really terrible pitchers have started out the year looking like Cy Young candidates. His first game was against a Blue Jays team, on Opening Day, that started out the season on a run of making bad pitchers look like aces. His 2nd start, though, against the Yankees was more impressive. But, if you look, Zim is someone that always starts the year off hot. He always gets worse, and I expect him to do so. Granted, you could easily play Zim in GPPs on a 3 game slate especially given how bad this Indians team has looked. But I think Zim is bad enough, I would rather take a chance on a stack then take a chance on him at 8100. Yuck.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6

Chalk Level (1-10): 7

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini

Preferred Players : Start with Ramirez (3B - 5100) then go to the top and work your way down.


Red Sox vs Matt Shoemaker (RHP, TOR) - I mean, again, on a 3 game slate you can take a chance on Shoemaker, who has been as hot as fire lately. He has had 2 starts. In both of them, he went 7 IP, only allowed 2 hits, and struck out 7 and 8 batters. But when you look closer, he did it against the hapless Tigers and an Orioles team who never had a hap to begin with. On a 3 game slate, you can take a chance here as a deep GPP play, but Shoemaker is going against a Red Sox that should be able to absolutely punish him. Especially considering he is an extreme reverse splits pitcher.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 8

Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred

Preferred Players: Martinez (OF - 5200), Bogaerts (SS - 4800), Betts (OF - 5300), Nunez (2B/3B - 4200), Vazquez (C - 3700), then start at the top

Ervin Santana (6200, RHP) vs TB - Santana hasn’t been very good for awhile. I mean he was never a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but he was good. Now he isn’t. He only got 5 starts last year due to injury. Now he’s 35 and, unless you are taking the cream, 35 year olds don’t suddenly get better and less injury prone. I think Santana is going to be SUPER popular today given how cheap he is, and how high some projections have him. I think that’s a huge mistake.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Meadows (OF - 4200), Pham (OF - 4700), Yandy Diaz (1B/3B - 3900), Lowe (2B - 4500), Kiermaier (OF - 4100), Choi (1B - 4200), then whoever else starts.


HR CALL OF THE SLATE: I think both JD Martinez and Bogaerts go deep. But I will choose Martinez as the most likely.


Today’s Slate

Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)

A’s vs Orioles - 705pm

Brett Anderson, LHP - 2-0, 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6 BB, 7 K

John Means, LHP - 1-0, 5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2 BB, 9 K

Vegas Info: 9.5, OAK -151

Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing across the field at 13 mph.


Nationals vs Phillies - 705pm

Stephen Strasburg, RHP - 1-0, 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3 BB, 17 K

Aaron Nola, RHP - 1-0, 9.0 IP, 7.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7 BB, 10 K

Vegas Info: 7.5, PHI -132

Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds swirling at 10mph.


Twins vs Mets - 710pm

Kyle Gibson, RHP - 0-0, 4.2 IP, 9.64 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 2 BB, 2 K

Jacob deGrom, RHP - 2-0, 13.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 2 BB, 24 K

Vegas Info: 6.5, NYM -217

Weather: Overcast and Warmish. Temps around 60. Winds swirling at 8mph.


Dodgers vs Cardinals - 745pm

Ross Stripling, RHP - 0-0, 11.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2 BB, 8 K

Dakota Hudson, RHP - 0-1, 5.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 6 K

Vegas Info: 8.5, LAD -135

Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing in at 5mph.


Yankees vs Astros - 810pm

Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP - 0-0, 4.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 4 K

Gerrit Cole, RHP, 0-2, 12.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 19 K

Vegas Info: 8, HOU -168

Weather: DOME


Mariners vs Royals - 815pm

Marco Gonzales, LHP - 3-0, 19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 3 BB, 11 K

Jake Junis, RHP - 1-0, 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4 BB, 14 K

Vegas Info: 9, SEA -118

Weather: Clear and Warm. Tems around 70. Winds blowing across the field at 9mph.


Braves vs Rockies - 840pm

Max Fried, LHP - 1-0, 7.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.39 WHIP, 2 BB, 5 K

German Marquez, RHP - 1-0, 13.0 IP, 0.69 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 6 BB, 14 K

Vegas Info: 11, COL -133

Weather: COORS FIELD GAME Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing out to RF at 9mph.


Rangers vs Dbacks - 940pm

Mike Minor, LHP - 1-1, 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4 BB, 10 K

Zack Greinke, RHP - 1-1, 9.2 IP, 9.31 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 2 BB, 13 K

Vegas Info: 8, ARI -136

Weather: DOME


Padres vs Giants - 945pm

Joey Lucchesi, LHP - 2-0, 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3 BB, 13 K

Derek Holland, LHP - 0-1, 9.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6 BB, 12 K

Vegas Info: 7.5, Pick Em

Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps in the low 60s. Winds blowing out at 18mph. Wow! SF built the park to minimize the effects of wind, though, so it doesn’t matter as much as you would think.


Brewers vs Angels - 1007pm

Freddy Peralta, RHP - 1-0, 11.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 14 K

Matt Harvey, RHP - 0-1, 10.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5 BB, 6 K

Vegas Info: 8.5, Pick Em

Weather: Windy and warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing across the field, toward RF, at 18 mph.


Pitchers

Great Pitchers


Stephen Strasburg (9700, RHP) at PHI - Man, some of the prices for these ace pitchers is crazy. I mean, it’s kind of a relative thing for DK, right? They have one pitcher at 12k because he is far and away the best pitcher in baseball right now. You can’t really put anyone else that close to him, so everyone else is underpriced. Plus, people have to be able to fit in Coors Field bats, leading to some aces really far, far too low. I expect there’s going to be a lot of people paying for Strasburg at this price. And they should. Tomorrow is going to be one of those days where ownership percentages are EXTREMELY important, so I will do my best to get those to you some point in the afternoon in some way. But there are SO many good pitchers at way too cheap that that is ultimately going to have to be the tiebreaker.


Aaron Nola (9400, RHP) vs WAS - Listen, I know neither are as good as deGrom. I know the Nats and Phillies offenses are no joke. But 9700 and 9400 for these two aces is going to make them exceedingly popular today, and for good reason. I would imagine, given the fact the Phillies is currently a better offense and Nola is cheaper, that the ownership will fall largely on Nola. And I don’t know how you don’t get all over him here for 9400. He is going to be in the top 5 for Cy Young again this year, and he is 200 more that Joey Lucchesi? Gimme a fucking break.


Jacob deGrom (11600, RHP) vs MIN - Jake deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball right now. Anyone who argues with you about that has literally no legitimate argument and/or no idea what they are talking about. If you don’t know who Bob Gibson is, do yourself a favor and look up some video of Gibson pitching. He is a hall of famer and all time great. Like, some people put him in the Mount Rushmore of pitchers, and you can’t really argue with them. He was so good he forced MLB to lower the mound to remove some of the advantage the pitchers had by being raised. Well, last season by deGrom was arguably the best by a pitcher since Gibson::

Since MLB lowered the mound, became 1 of 3 pitchers to have 30+ starts, 210+ IP, and a 1.70 or lower ERA

11th pitcher in the last 100 years (including before they lowered the mound) to have an ERA of 1.70 or below

Ended the season with 29 starts allowing 3 runs of fewer, the longest single season streak in MLB HISTORY. He has now broken the multi season record, and sits at 31 and counting. That is the MLB record. Ever. No one had ever done that.

The only pitcher in the modern era (since 2000) with a sub 2.00 ERA, 260 or more Ks, 50 or fewer walks, and 10 or fewer HR allowed.

His highest ERA for any month was 2.36 in June.

Has allowed 0 or 1 runs in 64 of his 139 career starts. No one in ML History had ever done that before. Now he’s up to 66 in 141.

And now he gets a Twins team that won’t have a DH which means no Nelly Cruz. And a batting pitcher. Also, do you know how insane it is for the total of this game to be 6.5 and the Mets to be THAT favored. On top of that, he is trying to break Bob Gibson’s consecutive quality start record. Gibson had 26 which deGrom and no one else has done. With a QS today, deGrom gets to 27. I expect him to do that at far less ownership that he should have.


Gerrit Cole (10500, RHP) vs NYY - Cole is the 2nd best pitcher going today. But he’s still not nearly as good as deGrom and 10 out of 10 times I will find the money to pay up for Jake. That being said, this is a Yankees lineup that has a ton of Ks in it and Cole could get you 14 K today. Considering his K/9 was 12 last season, that just means he has a slightly above average 8 IP.


Zack Greinke (8900, RHP) vs TEX - Greinke is a great pitcher. He can have some really horrible games sometimes, as we saw on Opening Day when he got a stunning -5.2 DKP. But he is one of the smartest people in the game of baseball, and he knows how to bounce back which he did getting 10k in 6 IP, letting him get 27.9 DKP even though he gave up 3 ER. Like I always tell you, Ks are King. While I would rather pay up for deGrom and downgrade a bat or two, or go down from Greinke and upgrade some bats, I would definitely keep him in your MME pool if you play a bunch of lineups.


GPP Plays

John Means (4500, LHP) vs OAK - If you play Means, you should know that you really shouldn’t expect more than 4 IP at an absolute maximum. He has made 3 appearances out of the bullpen so far this year, including 3 days ago. So really, while they may let him get to 80 pitches again (like he did on the 31st), the odds are much, much more likely he gets 40 pitches which should be enough for 3 IP or so. If he’s good and efficient, like I said, 4. But, so far, in his 5.2 IP he has 9 K. That means that, even if he only pitches 3 IP, he could easily pay this price off while also allowing us to get some seriously expensive bats.


Jakob Junis (7200, RHP) vs SEA - Junis isn’t going to win any awards this season, unless they start giving awards for the most fun name to say out loud. And even then, Adalberto Mondesi would probably beat him from this team (unless there’s an alliteration bonus, of course.) Anyway, I digress. Junis isn’t someone I love. But he has had 2 poor starts where he struck out enough people to get 18 DKP. Almost everyone else priced under 9k, with the exception of Means, is someone without any upside whatsoever. So, while he may not be the best play, he is certainly the best mid-to-low priced pitcher that will help you get some of those sweet, sweet bats in.


Joey Lucchesi (9200, LHP) at SF - This is a different kind of GPP play. Normally when I say GPP play it’s someone who kind of sucks but has some upside - someone you can play but you could also stack against. But here, I mean someone who, due to price, will be completely unowned. I mean, you can read what I wrote when I was talking about Nola. Lucchesi is going to be one of the lowest owned pitchers on this slate, certainly one of the lowest actually good pitchers. So far in 10.1 IP this season he has only given up 7 hits with 13 K and 0 ER. He is going against a fucking awful SF Offense that he already got 27 DKP against. So if you want a great GPP pivot to someone no one will own but is actually completely fairly priced here, run with Lucchesi. I will sure as hell have some of him across my lineups.


Freddy Peralta (9900, RHP) at LAA - This is both kinds of GPP plays! It’s both someone who is kind of bad but with amazing upside who could give you a negative score or 40 DKP and also someone who won’t be owned at all due to price. And sure, there are some batters on this Angels team that will give him fits, but you can’t deny his upside, and you can’t deny no one will be on him.


No Thanks

Brett Anderson (8000, LHP) at BAL - Brett Anderson isn’t nearly as bad as Marco Estrada, so I don’t expect to have much, if any, interest in Baltimore today. He also is hilariously overpriced for someone who doesn’t strike people out. So yeah. No thanks.


Ross Stripling (9100, RHP) at STL - Stripling is a fine pitcher. He limits base runners, generally. He keeps the ball on the ground, for the most part. But he doesn’t seem to strike that many people out when he’s starting. And, when he’s 300 less than Aaron Nola, you really have no reason to play him. No reason at all.


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)

Mets vs Kyle Gibson (RHP, MIN) - I think this may be the first time I’ve gotten to use the Mets as a stack. They have played a lot of games against a lot of good pitchers so far, so it’s nice to see them have such a good record, and to get a chance against Kyle Gibson, who is not good. In his first, he couldn’t make it out of the 4th inning, surrendering 5 ER on 8 hits and 2 BB and only 2 K. Oh boy. He is also a normal splits pitcher, and the Mets have plenty of LH power.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Conforto (OF - 4300), Cano (2B - 3900), Alonso (1B - 4100), Nimmo (OF - 3900), McNeil (3B/OF - 4000), Ramos (C - 3800), Rosario (SS - 4000).


Dodgers vs Dakota Hudson (RHP, @STL) - As I wrote in my preview, Hudson profiles as an extreme ground ball pitcher. He had a perplexing first start, though, where his sinking stuff wasn’t working. He wound up going only 4.1 innings, giving up 3 HR and 3 ER on 7 hits. He still struck out 6, making his effort serviceable. But this is a Dodgers team that’s been hitting lights out. And Hudson probably won’t make it 5 innings, even if he pitches well.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 8

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down

Astros vs Jonathan Loaisiga (RHP, NYY) - Loaisiga, apart from having a name that’s impossible for a dyslexic to get right, is someone pitching on a limited count that has trouble finding the plate. Against an Astros team that is very patient at the plate, I don’t expect this to go too well for him. The one big negative I have here is the Yankees have, far and away, the best bullpen in baseball. So even if the get to the SP, it’s not like they have dessert up next.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6

Chalk Level (1-10): 7

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini

Preferred Players: Start with Brantley (OF - 4000) first, given the SPs splits, then start at the top and work your way down


Royals vs Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) - If you are 70+ years old and a voter for the BBWAA, you probably have 3-0 Marco Gonzalez as your front runner for the Cy Young this season. But let’s be real here - He’s had 2 games of incredible run support where he could have easily lost and 1 game where he struck out 3 in 8.1 IP but managed to have a lot of balls find a lot of fielders. Let’s see how this extreme splits pitcher does against the lefty mashing Royals

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini

Preferred Players: Whit (2B/OF - 4400), Mondesi (SS - 4800), Soler (OF - 3900), Schwindel (1B - 3800), Owings (2B/3B - 3800), Maldonado (C - 2900)


Rockies vs Max Fried (LHP, ATL) - Oh man. I love the Mets, but this stack takes the cake. If you read my analysis from yesterday, I linked an awesome article about how different pitches are affected by Coors Field. Long story short, sliders good, curveballs and changeups bad. Well Fried is a 3 pitch pitcher, a 4 seamer he throws 60% of the time. It has a slight sink to it, but that will be muted by Coors Field as well. He then has a curveball he throws 30% of the time. It’s a massive, beautiful, sweeping curve that won’t work at Coors. His 3rd pitch is a changeup he throws the rest of the time (10% or so). Uh oh. I hope he can live off of 1 pitch. And I hope he doesn’t mind that Arenado and Story are 2 of the best hitters against LHP in the MLB.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start with Story (SS - 5100) and Arenado (3B - 5300), who are both underpriced, and then work your way from the top. Blackmon is a great way to separate yourself, and he does fine against LHP. Desmond (OF - 4300) and Reynolds (1B - 4200) also destroy LHP


Braves vs German Marquez (RHP, @COL) - If you pay attention to a lot of baseball/DFS analysts, people just don’t grasp how significant splits are. Not just hitter splits, but a bunch of other splits too. For example, you can see if someone is better at home or away, or in the first half or 2nd half. We can see that Marquez is someone who can be crushed by LHB and is really bad at home. Oh boy do I have some bad news for Marquez when he looks at this lineup and where he is right now.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHP preferred

Preferred Players: Freeman (1B - 5100), Inciarte (OF - 4300), Markakis (OF - 4000), Albies (2B - 4700) then anyone else. Everyone is way too cheap for COL


Dbacks vs Mike Minor (LHP, TEX) - As I have noted several times now, Mike Minor is not a good pitcher. Sure he had an inexplicable incredible game against the Astros last time up, getting almost 30 DKP on 7 IP. But before that, on opening day, he had -0.3 DKP against the Cubs, giving up 6 ER in 4.2 IP. I would expect more of the Cubs performance against this Dbacks team that can really destroy LHB as well.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 5

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini

Preferred Players: Jones (OF - 4000), Marte (2B/OF - 4200), Flores (1B/2B - 4300), Walker (1B - 4200), Ahmed (SS - 4000), Murphy (C - 3400), Peralta (OF - 4300)


Padres vs Derek Holland (LHP, @SF) - Derek Holland is another bad major league pitcher who has had a couple decent games to start off the year. That doesn’t mean I’m going to fall to recency bias, though. I know who Holland is. And I can also this Padres lineup and see how absolutely disgusting they are against LHP. Like, one of the best in the game. And no one is on them. Good for us! Also look at how cheap they are. Double bonus!

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 8

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: I would prioritize people thusly - Machado (3B - 4400), Reyes (OF - 4100), Myers (OF - 4300), Renfroe (OF - 4300), Tatis (SS - 4000), Hedges (C - 3700), then anyone else


Brewers vs Matt Harvey (6000, RHP) - Matt Harvey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball now and we should jump to stack against him anytime we can, especially with LHB. Period. Sometimes it is that simple.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred

Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5300), Shaw (1B/3B - 4200), Moustakas (2B/3B - 4200), Grandal (C - 4200), Thames (1B/OF - 4300), then whoever else. But those are the most important plays


One-Off Batters

Paul DeJong (SS - 3900) - Like with Mancini yesterday, when you have a reverse splits pitcher going against a hitter with extreme reverse splits, and it lines up, you have a stew goin’ baby!!! That’s DeJong today. He is going to have a very good today. I also love Goldie (1B - 4600), but SS is a much thinner position and DeJong is so cheap for a 3 hitter.


HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Michael Conforto


Ahh. it’s 3am. Plenty of time to get started on an 11 game slate for the NBA where everyone is going to be resting. Sigh. Best of luck today all!!!

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